Allow me to start by giving this talk, about Tropical Depressions.
First of all, in my personal opinion I find them un-necessary for classification. I understand that the NHC makes these classifications to keep the public alert, but I honestly can't see much difference from depressions and tropical waves.
Both of these systems are usually not well defined. In some cases such as TD #1 they can have multiple vortices, and are very unorganized. In most cases it seems the NHC leaves them classified as such just to insure people keep interest in them. I find this is be very inaccurate information.
I was thinking perhaps a different situation should apply, give me your thoughts on this. I was thinking perhaps waves in general should get mention. But they should be based on different levels, such as this example. All waves listed in the TWO should be given a probability for further development, such as it's done in other organizations. (Fair, Moderate, Poor,). Tropical Depressions should also go under this, because as it is records don't really remember depressions, you'll never read a paper saying 28 named storms plus 3 un-named systems.
The effects of depressions aren't really very powerful. A vigorous tropical wave making landfall brings nearly the same effects. What really gets the situation is the system stalling and causing the massive flooding. All I have to say here is given the evidence I see from depressions, I agree they deserve interest but I don't think they should go on record until they become bonafide tropical storms.
Anyway, on to the tropics...
Something I should note to begin, this genesis model has been persistently giving a moderate shading in the BOC area...
I find this rather interesting. I have been watching this model, it showed that area of convection in the BOC and gave it a higher shading, in the light greens earlier this week. Previously I had believed this to be because they were foreseening the tropical wave that moved in through the Caribbean to survive making it into the BOC and interacting with this area. However, the wave axis completely died out and the moisture in the gulf raced into Texas and Louisiana. After this occured the shading completely went away, but recently the model has picked up on this area again. I think this same setup is likely to occur again, so that may be an area to watch as the week progresses.
Another supposed area of interest has been the area near Bermuda, which models have been picking up on. For this I think i'm gonna turn the other way. A pocket of 40 Knot shear with 20 to 30 Knots surrounding it will insure development will be difficult. Although shear is going to slightly be on the decrease in this area, I can't this area pulling itself together. However, given that it's still sparking with the environment around it, I have to at least keep one eye open to it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Next, I suppose i'll throw discussion about the tropical wave around 15, 60. Convection has become VERY impressive in this area. Outflow has established. However, the system remains broad and disorganizated. Interesting to note the last tropical wave blew up in nearly this exact same area, and met it's end. I'm going to go on a limb here and say, if I can come back tomorrow at around this time and say this system still exists, it's gonna have a shot. Waves moving through this area always have to deal with the graveyard what's really gonna determine what happens next is if it can survive the harsh area of shear ahead of it. The wave allready survived the dry air behind it, which in itself is impressive enough. I'll leave this at if it survives the blanket of heavy shear throughout the Eastern Caribbean, move through the increasing shear in the Western Caribbean and somehow make it into the gulf, we may just have Beryl. Great odds right?
To end my first discussion i'd like to note, activity in the ITCZ area has been rather weak lately. I suppose i'll also note, the GOM has become VERY favorable lately. In fact, Alberto would have been sure to be a hurricane if it had this going for it. I would hope that this pattern of moderate moisture, above average SST's and low shear doesn't hold for the rest of the season.
And as much as i'd like to deny it, I think we're gonna see a bad season this year. Everyone in the gulf area should have understanding of the situation. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that's gonna hold back storms from becoming major hurricanes when August/September rolls around. Don't let your guards down, i'm not trying to cast doom and gloom but after 2005, how can we see worse?
I'll make another post discussing the activity out there if things become more favorable.
I'll leave it as this, poor areas with the Bermuda system and the wave entering the E. Caribbean have poor chances of development. But i'll check watch with the wave.
However, and you can mark my words with this. I DO expect another system to spin up before the start of July. Given the current conditions. You can mark my words with that
