94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[Extremeweatherguy]

Oh well, Im sure there will be other storms in the GOM soon enough and we will quickly forget about little ol 94... Its all good... Im ready for the rain, bring it on!!!

yeah, I agree. 94L will quickly be forgotten (unless it makes a miraculous comeback) in a month or two when a hurricane is bearing down on the Gulf coast (which I actually hope doesn't happen; but I bet it will).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is an updating IR shot of the GOM so we can see what else develops through the afternoon. The more that is out there; the more rain Houston gets:

[Yankeegirl]

Im not too sure about us getting a storm this year... We have had a lotta rain here in the past few weeks, and I think that we have caught up and mother nature has balanced herself out... I dunno, its just a feeling... No expert here.....

[Yankeegirl]

Well we havent gotten any rain here as of yet...

[BreinLa]

Sprinkles and cloudy here in South La.

[no advance]

Seems like the central gulf is now the focus of the energy.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Seems like the central gulf is now the focus of the energy.

yes, there is a lot of energy in the central Gulf right now, but the focus right now is just south of the Texas/Mexico border. There is also new development occuring in the BOC right now.

[southerngale]

It's been raining here, but nothing heavy so far.

I have a question for the mets. The NWS has us at 60% - thunderstorms likely through the 4th of July, then 50% and 40% for Wednesday through Friday. That's as far as they go. Is this whole "system" out there supposed to take that long to move north or what is keeping our rain chances fairly high through at least next Friday? We either get soaked (or flooded, twice in less than a month) or there's no chance of rain at all. There's been no normal, summer afternoon showers, at least here.

[storms NC]

I don't see much of anything in the GOM at this time. Maybe some rain makers. But give it a month the waters will be hot.

[Opal storm]

Well this thing is about dead,lots of rain for Texas and Mexico though.Maybe what's left of 93L will have a better chance at becoming something when it crosses the Yucatan into the BOC before heading into Mexico.

[Extremeweatherguy]

there are a few different small swirls going on right now in the western Gulf. It also seems like there is a more significant swirl over Mexico starting to move back NNE into the GOM. Still worth watching...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

BTW: Is the shear suppose to lessen anytime soon?

[tailgater]

What's left of 94L looks to be inland now near Tampico

[TS Zack]

You can see a small low-level circulation off of West La Coast. Looks like convection is about to increase in a band to the right of the center.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Far bottom left.

[southerngale]

I see what you're talking about, Zack. How can you tell it's a low-level circulation though? I see people thinking it is sometimes, and then a met comes along and explains why it isn't. Just wondering.

[Extremeweatherguy]

You can see a small low-level circulation off of West La Coast. Looks like convection is about to increase in a band to the right of the center.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Far bottom left.

Oh yeah, your right. Bears watching for sure, though I think shear may still be too high for it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

You can see that swirl really good with this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Looks like it is heading NNW toward the TX/LA border. If nothing else it may be a focus for more storms later today or tomorrow in SE Texas and SW Louisiana. Worst case scenario would probably be a TD or weak TS (but I doubt it).

[boca]

It's been raining here, but nothing heavy so far.

I have a question for the mets. The NWS has us at 60% - thunderstorms likely through the 4th of July, then 50% and 40% for Wednesday through Friday. That's as far as they go. Is this whole "system" out there supposed to take that long to move north or what is keeping our rain chances fairly high through at least next Friday? We either get soaked (or flooded, twice in less than a month) or there's no chance of rain at all. There's been no normal, summer afternoon showers, at least here.

At least here in the SE we are supposed to get a deep trough so maybe thats the focusing mechanism for the rain chances but your not exactly in the SE part of the country so just guessing at this point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For those that live in SE Texas = Check out the SE Texas rainy weather thread in the U.S. weather section. I have posted the latest FRIGHTENING AFD from the NWS in Houston!

[Starburst]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011930
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ON THE WAY...

.DISCUSSION...
VERY CONCERNING SET OF 12Z MODEL RUNS TODAY. EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROFFINESS IN THE WESTERN GULF SET TO BEGIN
COMING INLAND SUNDAY AND INCREASE EVEN MORE ON MONDAY - AND PERSIST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HERE`S A TABLE DEPICTING MODEL
AVERAGE PW VALUES IN SE TX THIS MIDWEEK:

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
GFS 2.0-2.2" 2.3-2.4" 2.3-2.4" 2.1-2.3" 2.1-2.4" 1.7-2.3"
NAM 2.0-2.4" 2.2-2.4" 2.1-2.3"

THE HIGH PW VALUES SHOWN ABOVE ARE KNOWN TO PRODUCE THE TORRENTIAL
2-4"/HR RAINFALL RATES DESPITE WHETHER THERE IS A BOUNDARY TO WORK
OFF OF OR NOT. AND AS WE ALL VERY WELL KNOW - EVEN WITHOUT A
DISTINCT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE TO ACT AS A TRIGGER/FOCUS - WEAK
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FREQUENTLY DEVELOP IN THE WEAK FLOW REGIMES
LIKE WE ARE IN (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SEABREEZE/BAYBREEZE, ETC).
EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO PLAYING OUT AND
WOULD NOT DOUBT IF LOCALIZED 8-12+ INCH AMOUNTS OCCURRED SOMEWHERE
IN OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT 2-5 DAYS...AND POSSIBLY IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORING A
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW IN W TX IS FCST TO SLOWLY
GET PUSHED BACK EASTWARD TOWARD US EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN (THOUGH MODELS NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT/TIMING JUST YET).

UNFORTUNATELY...WITHOUT SEEING SOMETHING MORE DISTINCT...WE`RE JUST
NOT ABLE TO PINPOINT THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA ATTM. SUSPECT WE`LL END
UP NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH IN THE 18-24 HOURS...BUT THINK WE`LL
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO LOOK AT ANOTHER 1-2 SETS OF FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES OR WE CAN NARROW DOWN THE THREAT AREA.
ANTICIPATE DECREASED PRECIP COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY START OUT SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH DAYTIME HEATING (CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S). PROBABLY HAVE A SIMILAR DIURNAL PATTERN OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL IF/WHEN THE UPPER LOW GETS A BIT CLOSER AND CORE RAINS
BECOME A CONCERN.

THOUGH SOME AREAS WILL GET A GOOD SOAKING ON SUN - MOST CONCERNED
ABOUT MON/TUE AT THIS TIME. WILL WORRY ABOUT THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEK LATER AS DETAILS ARE BOUND TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT
THE PRECIP FOCUS MAY SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BEYOND THURS AS A
WEAK FRONT BACKDOORS INTO N/NE TX AND POSSIBLY PROVIDES A LLVL
FOCUS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED HWO LATER THIS AFTN. 47

&&

[Starburst]

Sorry Extremeweatherguy you beat me to it. I type slow