Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

[Stratosphere747]

This is not looking good. Going from enjoying a nice "gullywasher" to becoming a serious event.

Hate to think if a little surface low spun up. This does not need any more level of enhancement....

[Johnny]

I guess I need to get my smoker and yank it underneath my carport. When we get flooding rains like this, it brings out a butt load of crawfish back in my pasture behind the house. My 5 yr. old loves catching them. We also take my jacked up golf cart and catch bullfrogs late at night. It looks like it is going to be prime time for bull frog catchin'.

Seriously, their doesn't seem to be anyway to wiggle out of this one. Y'all be safe.

[jasons2k]

This one could be somewhere between Frances '98 and Allison as far as rainfall.

[CajunMama]

I guess I need to get my smoker and yank it underneath my carport. When we get flooding rains like this, it brings out a butt load of crawfish back in my pasture behind the house. My 5 yr. old loves catching them. We also take my jacked up golf cart and catch bullfrogs late at night. It looks like it is going to be prime time for bull frog catchin'.

Seriously, their doesn't seem to be anyway to wiggle out of this one. Y'all be safe.

I want to see a pic of your jacked up golf cart!

[Portastorm]

According to the Austin-San Antonio NWSFO, the PWs for our area will reach near 2.5 by this afternoon. That's amazing ... I guess like a tropical rain forest or something!

So far, we've received a light constant rain this morning amounting to about .20-.30 inches but nothing to write home (or post) about!

[KatDaddy]

Hey jschlitz! Big time tropical rains on the way.

[jasons2k]

Hey jschlitz! Big time tropical rains on the way.

Hey KatDaddy - yep, looks like a washout.

[teal61]

Recon has been scheduled to go out tommorow and check out the area in the Gulf, details in the 94L thread in the tropical section.

[gboudx]

Hey KatDaddy and jschlitz - don't be greedy.

In the past 2-3 weeks that we've had slight rain chances, I've been on the 60-70% of the area that did not get any rain. I'm hoping my luck changes soon. We'll be hitting Stage 4 water restrictions by next month if this doesn't stop. Stage 4 means no watering of landscaping.

[Air Force Met]

Hey jschlitz! Big time tropical rains on the way.

Hey KatDaddy - yep, looks like a washout.

Hey guys...I think it's gonna rain.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm sure they are about to hoist FF warnings for S Brazoria county.

I've recieved almost 3 inches in the last few hours. Friend called from Lake Jackson with over 5 inches and still having coming down hard.

[Extremeweatherguy]

No rain in Spring yet..

[vbhoutex]

Starting in the Spring Branch area. Actually it is about a mile to our west, but it is definitely not just a little shower.

[Houstonia]

I dont mind the rain for the 4th... I am always worried about all the fireworks catching the roof of my house on fire or the dead leaves and such...

Hey Yankeegirl - you getting a downpour right now? We are ankle deep in water on the sidewalks and parking lots of my complex right now!!

[Houstonia]

Starting in the Spring Branch area. Actually it is about a mile to our west, but it is definitely not just a little shower.

It's been a downpour here for about... 30 minutes. I regret not having been more insistent on having the leak fixed in my living room.

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 022005
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...THREAT OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT INCREASING...

.DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST PACKAGE AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES...AND INCREASES. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROF ACROSS THE WRN GULF WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND LATER TONIGHT
AND MON. FCST PW`S BETWEEN 2.3-2.7" SHOULD BE THE NORM ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. YEP...YOU READ THAT RIGHT AND LIKE THE MIDNIGHT FCSTER
NOTED...THESE VALUES ARE OFF THE CHART AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DANGEROUSLY HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES. FCST DILEMMA (WELL, ONE OF
THEM) IS TRYING TO PICK OUT THE AREAS MOST AT RISK OF SEEING THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE THE BEST PLACE FOR THIS
TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SE TX WHERE THE EXTREME PW
VALUES ARE FCST. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SATELLITE & RADAR
PIX ALONG WITH GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY...THESE HIGH MOISTURE PROFILES
APPEAR EXTEND EVEN FURTHER EAST THAN MODELS DEPICT. SO DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE CORRESPONDING HEAVIEST RAINFALL A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
THAN HPC & GFS/NAM CURRENTLY SHOW. AND FROM PAST EXPERIENCE WITH
LESSER VALUES...WILL ALSO NUDGE ACCUMULATIONS UP. THROUGH MON
NIGHT...ANTICIPATE 3-5" ACCUMULATIONS ALONG & WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
AND 2-3" INCHES TO THE EAST. AS THE PAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS HAVE
MENTIONED...ANY TRAINING OR DEVELOPING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT
FOCUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP CAN LEAD TO THE EXTREME LOCALIZED 10"+
ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME AROUND HERE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLAN ON EXTENDING THE FFA THRU MON EVENING. COULD PROBABLY GET
CUTE AND START IT LATE TONIGHT AND LEAVE OUT THE NE ZONES...BUT
SINCE IT`S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MOST ZONES WILL REQUIRE IT ON MON
WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE BLANKET WATCH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
THE WESTERN GULF FETCH REMAINING OPEN AND PW`S >2.1". GFS/CANADIAN
KEEP THE MID/UPPER LOW WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS THRU MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVERHEAD AND PUSH IT SOUTH. THIS WOULD SPARE US
FROM THE OVERNIGHT CORE RAINS. ETA/ECMWF START BRINGING THE LOW EAST
TOWARD CNTRL/SE TX ON TUE WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A HIGH THREAT OF CORE
RAINS AND HIGHER QPF. NOGAPS IS IN BETWEEN. HONESTLY DON`T KNOW
WHICH ONE WILL WIN SO KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE THE MAJORITY OF FCST
PERIODS THRU WED. COOL FRONT ENTERING NORTH TEXAS IS STILL FCST TO
SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN ZONES THU/FRI...BUT IT
ALSO BRINGS THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THE FUN
CONTINUES... 47

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING COAST WILL AFFECT GLS AND LBX TAF
SITES. SCATTERED CONVECTION INLAND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THEN DECREASING RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE WHILE
WEAKENING. CONVECTION FROM NW GULF EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND TOMORROW
MORNING...EARLIER FOR GLS AND LBX. EXPECT CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT
FOR CLL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ALL SITES MAINLY AFTER
09Z. 37

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND BAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO DEEP AND VERY HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEARBY.
WIND/WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TEMPORARILY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE REGION.
OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. 37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 86 75 87 75 / 60 90 60 70 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 85 77 87 76 / 60 99 60 70 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 85 80 87 81 / 80 99 60 70 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR ALL OF SE TX.
GM...NONE.

[Yankeegirl]

I just got home from work and drove through the flood... Copperfield is flooded, i had to drive through some high a$$ water! Crazy weather!! I see there is more coming in from the GOM too... We are going to SA on Tuesday.. I hope the rain chills out when we go!!

[Diva]

No rain yet here in Orange. Just a light sprinkle or two this AM but only clouds right now.

[jeff]

Dangerous flash flood threat developing over SE TX.

Flood Watch extended through 600pm Monday.

Moisture levels expected to increase to extraordinary levels...equal if not greater than those of TS Allison.

Somebody is going to get a tremendous amount of rain over the next 72 hours, but as always the where and when is the big question mark.

Current:

Upper level low of W TX is dragging rich PW air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico northward this afternoon. CRP sounding showed PW of 2.25 inches and GOES sounder shows values of 2.3-2.5 inches over the western Gulf heading this way. NAM model is absolutely scary with nearly continues convective explosions over SE TX through WEDNESDAY. Rich tropical air mass will "flood" inland later tonight and interact with increasingly favorable dynamics over the area to produce waves of very heavy rainfall.

Monday/Tuesday:

Models are painting excessive rainfall through this entire 48 hour period and HPC agrees. With PWS so high, hourly rainfall rates of 4-6 inches will be possible. Training of cells along meso scale boundaries (outflow, seabreeze, ect) could produce 5-10 inches in a few hours. Would not be surprised if somebody over SE TX sees 15 inches by Tuesday evening. 2-5 day totals could be extremely high (20 inches maybe??).

Feel the greatest threat will be along and W of I-45 where moisture will be greatest and that location will be in a favored vented region of the upper low. Potential widespread and prolonged nature of the event points to big concerns for the larger rivers across the region. High hourly rainfall rates will pose big problems for the smaller watersheds and urban areas.

Will have to pay close attention to the upper low as it may try and transition into a warm core tropical like system and begin producing nocturnal core rainfall events which as we know can be devastating.

[chadtm80]

Wet times definatly ahead







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