94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why waste the recon? I see no LLC just a surface trough at 96 west. With northwestly flow at all levels up to 300 millibars. Which should soak texas. Maybe weak spin just off the texas coast/may another at 23/93. But this is no way close to becoming anything. Could it tighten as it moving at land sure(Not in my discussion)but always possible. But I say the chances for development are low if not none. Even with the Anticyclone.

[NONAME]

Remeber Matt they can cancel the recon if it look like nothing.

[bigmoney755]

Why waste the recon?

Because they can

[Extremeweatherguy]

pressures in Victoria, TX have dropped 1mb in the last 2 hours, and the same has happened in Corpus Christi.

[SouthFloridawx]

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH STRETCHES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 88W. THIS WHOLE
MASS OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION IS FOUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN WEST TEXAS NEAR 31N101W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS EAST OF 88W...AND OVER
FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
30N80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO SURFACE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF WATERS NEAR 23N84W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR FORT MYERS
TO THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA AREA ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLORIDA ARE WEST OF A LINE
FROM 30N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MAY NOT BE RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTER...ABOUT 175 NM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS ONE LOW
CENTER...ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
28N...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 20N108W...TO 11N102W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N
WEST OF 100W.

[Pearl River]

EWG wrote

that makes no sense though? How can it be set for tomorrow when it is expected to come inland tonight or tomorrow morning.

Because the NHC say's so.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021700 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1300 AM EDT SUN 02 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-032

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 03/1500Z C. 04/0300Z
D. 26.0N 96.0W D. 28.5N 96.0W
E. 03/1700Z TO 2300Z E. 04/0530Z TO 1230Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE AS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INLAND.

[kjun]

In from all directions; the GOM, Pacific, and from the Yuc. wave. Even if this system does not develop, it may give Texas and LA a HUGE soaking!!!

[wxman57]

that makes no sense though? How can it be set for tomorrow when it is expected to come inland tonight or tomorrow morning.

I don't think that recon is going out tomorrow. There's no mention of recon in the latest outlook. Just because a possible recon mission is listed in the Plan Of the Day, doesn't mean it's actually going to fly. As always, "if necessary". It probably won't be necessary. Certainly, there's nothing to fly into today.

Pressures across the NW Gulf are 1018-1021 mb, as evident by the latest surface analysis. Certainly no low center out there, just thunderstorms.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94L.gif

[stormtruth]

The guy on TWC just said a gravity wave was affecting parts of LA and was about to interfere with the system in the Gulf. What does that mean?

It could mean LA is experiencing a disturbance in the space-time continuum.

[Air Force Met]

pressures in Victoria, TX have dropped 1mb in the last 2 hours, and the same has happened in Corpus Christi.

Which is about what you would expect this time of day due to dirunal changes. Remember...between 10 am - 4pm you get a dirunal FALL in pressures of up to 3 mbs.

So...in other words...the pressure is actually steady taking diurnal changes into account.

[Air Force Met]

pressures in Victoria, TX have dropped 1mb in the last 2 hours, and the same has happened in Corpus Christi.

Which is about what you would expect this time of day due to dirunal changes. Remember...between 10 am - 4pm you get a dirunal FALL in pressures of up to 3 mbs.

So...in other words...the pressure is actually steady taking diurnal changes into account.

Here is an example of this...a big dirunal curve at my station at Ellington...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KTXHOUST59&month=6&day=25&year=2006

You get big swings on hot...sunny days like the example here (which was a 4mb diurnal drop)...and smaller 1 to 2 mb swings on cluody days like today.

[spinfan4eva]

that makes no sense though? How can it be set for tomorrow when it is expected to come inland tonight or tomorrow morning.

ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH LINGERS IN THE WESTERN GULF.

[TS Zack]

A gravity wave is a sort of outflow in the upper atmosphere. It will enhance convection.

[Lindaloo]

Extreme... please rely on the facts of the NHC. They are the experts. If you do not agree with their thinking then please, fill us in on your analysis as to why you think they are wrong.

[Thunder44]

that makes no sense though? How can it be set for tomorrow when it is expected to come inland tonight or tomorrow morning.

I don't think that recon is going out tomorrow. There's no mention of recon in the latest outlook. Just because a possible recon mission is listed in the Plan Of the Day, doesn't mean it's actually going to fly. As always, "if necessary". It probably won't be necessary. Certainly, there's nothing to fly into today.

Pressures across the NW Gulf are 1018-1021 mb, as evident by the latest surface analysis. Certainly no low center out there, just thunderstorms.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94L.gif

I don't think when they issued the outlook, they had a recon scheduled to go out there yet. The schedule came out a few hours after the TWO was issued. Also from reading the TWO I think they believe they surface trough itself will remain out in the NW Gulf for the next day or two. The thunderstorms in the NE Gulf will probably move inland ahead of it later tonight without developing much further. New convection will have to form tomorrow morning for this sytem to have a chance to develop.

[Derek Ortt]

thet wo was after the plan of the day. POD was written before 1500 UTC

[Thunder44]

thet wo was after the plan of the day. POD was written before 1500 UTC

How can you tell? It says "13:00am" I just assumed they meant 1300 military time or 1pm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme... please rely on the facts of the NHC. They are the experts. If you do not agree with their thinking then please, fill us in on your analysis as to why you think they are wrong.

I never disagreed with them. All I asked was why they are going out tomorrow if the system we are watching is suppose to be inland by then. Just curious.

[vbhoutex]

Extreme... please rely on the facts of the NHC. They are the experts. If you do not agree with their thinking then please, fill us in on your analysis as to why you think they are wrong.

I never disagreed with them. All I asked was why they are going out tomorrow if the system we are watching is suppose to be inland by then. Just curious.

See wxman57's response re: the plan of the day above. All missions are "if necessary".

[Houstonia]

In from all directions; the GOM, Pacific, and from the Yuc. wave. Even if this system does not develop, it may give Texas and LA a HUGE soaking!!!

Well, I'm in Texas and I'm receiving a HUGE soaking right now. Complex is ankle deep in water right now. (not inside - we don't flood here).

I regret now not having complained louder and longer about the leak in my living room ceiling.