NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

whereverwx · #21 Postby **whereverwx** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:03 pm

Nice looking system.

http://www.fileden.com/files/18324/rgbavntdloop.gif

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #22 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:16 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM GUAM LST SAT JUL 1 2006

...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR PASSING CLOSE TO NGULU...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...AS WELL AS FOR
KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

IF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN EXPECTED
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR YAP BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS
ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 7.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.0 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NGULU
140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP
160 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
180 MILES EAST OF KOROR
230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
370 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL.

TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. THIS IS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM
(CATEGORY A) ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. EWINIAR
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...7.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.0 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
2 PM GUAM LST.

$$
PRIOR

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #23 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:27 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 8.5N 137.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 137.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 9.8N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 10.9N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.9N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.1N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.4N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 137.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN

I would watch this and 96E. Forget about 95L for the next 24 hours intill the high builds to the north. 94L you may say is dead. But a system on June 4th 2001 looked about the same on my tapes. In the next morning it was the worst flooding and costiest tropical storm in history. So learn from history.

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:53 pm

TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1125 AM GUAM LST SAT JUL 1 2006

...TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR PASSING SOUTHWEST OF NGULU...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF YAP
STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

AS OF 1100 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
YAP. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU
75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP
200 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
235 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
165 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
430 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL.

TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH.

...YAP...
PREPARATIONS FOR THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE
COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 50 TO 60 MPH WILL GUST TO 70 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH TO 25 TO 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT HEIGHTS NEAR 9 TO 12 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG ALL REEFS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY.

...NGULU...
BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 40 TO 45 MPH WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 55 MPH IN HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT 9 TO 12 FEET ALONG ALL REEFS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY.

...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...
RESIDENTS OF KOROR...KAYANGEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.
AVOID INTER-ISLAND BOAT TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT WEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BUT IF TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR TAKES A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK THAN EXPECTED...DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE
POSSIBLE ON KOROR AND KAYANGEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT HEIGHTS
NEAR 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT ALONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST FACING REEFS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE MUDSLIDES ON KOROR
AND BABELDAOB.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM GUAM LST.

$$
MIDDLEBROOKE

wxmann_91 · #25 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 11:04 pm

Although I think in the end, the intensity might end up verifying, JT's way too bulish initiatially. The convection needs to survive and prosper even during the diurnal minimum, which it is failing to do right now. Ya can't get rapid intensification until you get an established inner core. Perhaps tonight's convective maximum can do it... or is there just too much dry air?

EDIT: Just looked and its got amazing ul divergence and ll convergence, and plenty of vorticity. Sure taking its sweet time. Also, watch the disturbance behind it that could become an Invest soon.

#26 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 11:09 pm

7/1/06 00z Guidance:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #27 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:47 am

01/0833 UTC 9.6N 136.8E T4.0/4.0 EWINIAR -- West Pacific Ocean

#28 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 01, 2006 5:05 am

WindRunner wrote:JMA doesn't use ten minute averages? Man, am I out of it . . . sigh.

The JMA do use ten minute averages, I just see no need to convert them though. :wink:

40kts, 992hPa

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 09.7N 137.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 12.3N 135.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 030600UTC 14.8N 134.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
69HF 040600UTC 18.0N 134.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:13 am

STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 008
WTPN31 PGTW 011500
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 10.0N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.3N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.6N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.4N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.0N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.3N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.5N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 136.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

:darrow:

Graphic

#30 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:51 am

40kts still. The track image is here.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 10.4N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 021500UTC 12.8N 135.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 031200UTC 15.2N 134.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 041200UTC 18.5N 133.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

#31 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 01, 2006 2:27 pm

No change.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 10.7N 136.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 13.1N 134.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 031800UTC 15.5N 133.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 041800UTC 18.1N 132.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

#32 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:51 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 10.8N 136.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 13.1N 134.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 031800UTC 15.5N 133.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 041800UTC 18.1N 132.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

CHRISTY · #33 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jul 01, 2006 9:42 pm

#34 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 4:50 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 11.5N 135.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 13.6N 133.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 040600UTC 15.9N 132.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 050600UTC 18.5N 131.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

#35 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 1:50 pm

Up to 45kts, 990hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 12.1N 134.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 14.5N 133.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 041800UTC 16.7N 131.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 051800UTC 18.8N 130.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

JamesFromMaine2 · #36 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 5:04 pm

04WNONAME.60kts-980mb

#37 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 5:11 pm

No change, still 45kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 12.2N 134.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 14.5N 133.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 041800UTC 16.7N 131.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 051800UTC 18.8N 130.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

wxmann_91 · #38 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 7:56 pm

I said that Ewiniar would have a chance to rapidly strengthen if it maintained an inner core. So far until today, that has not happened for some reason, probably because of some shear. However, today its convection has maintained during the diurnal minimum. So, though I'm not enthusiastic about it, I have a feeling that if it rapidly strengthens, tonight is the night. UL anticyclone is forming over the system, and all we need are some strong tstorms tonight to bring hurricane-force winds down to the sfc.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #39 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 8:37 pm

I agree wxman_91...This system has developed a deep central dense overcast over the center. Also the outflow looks very well overall quad, which means theres not alot of shear over this. The 85h data shows the formation of a partly closed eye...I would say near say near 65 knots for this system. Even so it might still be closer to 60 knots because of the undefined central core. I expect this thing to come together at a fair rate over the next 12 to 24 hours.

For one shear looks to be low, also with warm sst's expect this thing could be strengthing at 10 knots every 6 to 12 hours.

Now 60 knots
6 70 knots
12 80 knots(Forming a visible eye on the visible/Ir satellite)
24 90 knots/105 mph
36 95 knots

It could very well strengthen faster then this...

wxmann_91 · #40 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 11:56 pm

Both Visible and IR show a weak eye now. It might intermittantly pop back in and out until tonight's convective maximum, where it should appear for good. Heat potential is highest in the TC's path: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/wpac ... 060702.gif

The best convergence remains to the south of the center, signifying that weak northerly shear still exists.

However, there is only a slim window of opportunity, as shear should increase in about 48-72 hr.

NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

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