INVEST 93L Comments Thread #2

[CHRISTY]

93L is looking mighty healthy this evening. And it's not just daytime heating over land causing the blow-up.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Now I still think development chances are low, but don't you think it's time to stop discussing 94L's potential and look down south if you want to "blob-watch"?

Really!

[Air Force Met]

93L is looking mighty healthy this evening. And it's not just daytime heating over land causing the blow-up.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Now I still think development chances are better, but don't you think it's time to stop discussing 94L's potential and look down south if you want to "blob-watch"?

With the loss of heating...the tops are warming rapidly except where the two outlfow boundries (collapse of the convective complex over the Yucatan and the other convective complex over the Guat/Mex border) are intersecting the wave...which of course is enough convergence to create thunderstorms in the tropics anytime. As they boundries travel westward with the wave...the convection should continue for a while...especially with the upcoming dirunal maximum...and may make it into Mexico by sometime tomorrow morning as it travels across the EXTREME southern BOC.

The rest of the wave will have to start over with convection...and this convective complex is going to rob it of some energy.

[Weatherfreak000]

93L is looking mighty healthy this evening. And it's not just daytime heating over land causing the blow-up.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Now I still think development chances are low, but don't you think it's time to stop discussing 94L's potential and look down south if you want to "blob-watch"?

Well you were talking about the system, I thought you liked it. lol.

[Weatherfreak000]

93L is looking mighty healthy this evening. And it's not just daytime heating over land causing the blow-up.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Now I still think development chances are better, but don't you think it's time to stop discussing 94L's potential and look down south if you want to "blob-watch"?

With the loss of heating...the tops are warming rapidly except where the two outlfow boundries (collapse of the convective complex over the Yucatan and the other convective complex over the Guat/Mex border) are intersecting the wave...which of course is enough convergence to create thunderstorms in the tropics anytime. As they boundries travel westward with the wave...the convection should continue for a while...especially with the upcoming dirunal maximum...and may make it into Mexico by sometime tomorrow morning as it travels across the EXTREME southern BOC.

The rest of the wave will have to start over with convection...and this convective complex is going to rob it of some energy.

How do you think the system will escape traveling with the Bermuda High?

[Stratosphere747]

Strange how this day has gone. Everyone was a bit hyped about 94, and look where it is at...Now we have whatever is left of 93 along with this latest blowup of convection.

AFM gives a good idea on what is happening and why.

Still quite impressed with the build up of convection over the Southern Yucatan. Then again, we have been saying that the last few days with 94 in the Gulf.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018l.gif



300mb wind/hghts still showing lower upper level winds in the boc in 18 hours.

[Stratosphere747]

Have to stop looking at this "blob"

But good grief it looks more impressive by the hour.

Again great points by AFM, but for some reason it seems as if the flow out of the EPAC is starting to nudge some convection to the WNW.

[Scorpion]

It does look pretty good. Would be nice to see some BOC development out of this.

[southerngale]

I was just looking at that flareup. It seems like most everything in the BOC has been moving generally northward, but since this is moving west right now, wouldn't it just keep on moving west across the BOC and into Mexico or is there something that would cause it not to keep going west? I'm asking because I saw wxman57 mention the ever so *slight* possibility it would have to develop in the BOC and I remember reading somewhere where AFM said something about it sending more moisture into Texas once it got into the BOC, or something like that. I guess I just don't get why it wouldn't just keep on trekking west.

Ya know I think that would depend on type of system that your talking about. It appears ala wv loop there is some strong shear in the upper levels to the west of this convection so depending on whether that shear keeps up it is possible that it could advect some of that moisture northward into the already moisture laden west gom. It is possible it could aid convection along the surface trough 24 hours from now. I guess it would depend on the stearing flow and what type of "system" it is.

I don't know...I guess whatever it is when it emerges into the BOC, which it's doing now. Will the steering currents still be west? I'm not just asking you...anyone who knows will do.

[Air Force Met]

How do you think the system will escape traveling with the Bermuda High?

Most of the wave will...but this convective compex...because it is being enhanced by outflow boundries is being setoff along the wave axis as they intersect. You can watch it was it moves due west.

One cue that the currect convection is being caused by an outflow boundry intersection is how fast it is moving. The convection on this latest flareup started at about 23Z...at about the same time the big blow up over the Yucatan started dying with the heat of the day...as did the other convective complex over the Guat/Mex border. NOw it is out to 93W at 04Z.

That's 180NM or so in 5 hours...or 36 knots of westward movement.

That's the BIG clue that this convection is NOT convection due to a blow up along the wave alone...but because you have outflow boundries intersecting it and those outflow boundries now look as though they have outrun it. They will move along the southern BOC and be into Mexico by mid morning. Anything that old-93 will want to fire up will have to start over once the outlfow boundries move out of the way.

It is possible that we could see some development during the diurnal max on the wave axis to the north from another outflow boundry from the current complex that is now zooming west. It wouldn't surprise me at all to wake up in the morning to see some tstms around 22-23N and around 92-93W because an outflow boundry broke out and headed north into the wave axis. That waits to be seen...it could just as easily head west...we will have to wait and see.

[Air Force Met]

It does look pretty good. Would be nice to see some BOC development out of this.

You won't see any BOC development out of this. It's moving at about 35 knots to the west. It being caused by colliding outflow boundries. If it is going to happen...it will have to happen on the wave...further to the north than the current convective complex.

[Air Force Met]

I don't know...I guess whatever it is when it emerges into the BOC, which it's doing now. Will the steering currents still be west? I'm not just asking you...anyone who knows will do.

The current convection isn't really being steered. It is being generated in the lower levels as the boundries move westward and intersect. Think of it as 2 meso scale features ineracting together rather than a synoptic scale feature being steered by synoptic scale patterns.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Your 100 percent right Air forcemet. People its a outflow boundry and maybe day time heating which makes the air mass unstable causing air to rise...In which causes convection/thunderstorms to blow up on land durning the day. Then move over water at night when the water is warmer then the land. Don't expect development from this system intill the wave moves back into the BOC by 24 hours/Monday afternoon. Then theres a slight chance but this year is proven to be very unfaverable to tropical cyclones unlike last year.

Airforcemet you knowledge is amazing.

[southerngale]

Ok, thanks for the response, AFM. I kinda understand what you're saying.

*grabs her Meteorology for Dummies book*

[southerngale]

Your 100 percent right Air forcemet. People its a outflow boundry and maybe day time heating which makes the air mass unstable causing air to rise...In which causes convection/thunderstorms to blow up on land durning the day. Then move over water at night when the water is warmer then the land. Don't expect development from this system intill the wave moves back into the BOC by 24 hours/Monday afternoon. Then theres a slight chance but this year is proven to be very unfaverable to tropical cyclones unlike last year.

Airforcemet you knowledge is amazing.

I hope you end up being right, but wow....don't you think it's a little early to say that? It's only July 2nd!

[Scorpion]

Your 100 percent right Air forcemet. People its a outflow boundry and maybe day time heating which makes the air mass unstable causing air to rise...In which causes convection/thunderstorms to blow up on land durning the day. Then move over water at night when the water is warmer then the land. Don't expect development from this system intill the wave moves back into the BOC by 24 hours/Monday afternoon. Then theres a slight chance but this year is proven to be very unfaverable to tropical cyclones unlike last year.

Airforcemet you knowledge is amazing.

You have to be kidding. Remember 2004? We couldn't even get a named storm to form until July 31. This is perfectly normal.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Southerngale, take a look at 25 north/55 west...You can see a tutt a very powerful one which is running through the caribbean. This remains me of 2000 and 2002 which both had strong tutts. See the tutt forms area's of upper level low pressure then they retrograde back westward/west-southwestward down it. Causing deep upper level v-shear/h-shear across the caribbean/central Atlantic.

Also look at the trough that has formed over the western Atlantic...Which has been pouring on the northeast. That is another unfaverable thing for tropical development. But we will have to see how it sets up because it might just land a hurricane into new york if its west enough.

[southerngale]

Don't get me wrong...I do not think we'll see as active a year as 2005 in our lifetimes. I just thought it was premature to say that this year has proven to be very unfavorable for tropical cyclones when it's only July 2nd, well July 3rd now with this post.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Don't get me wrong...I do not think we'll see as active a year as 2005 in our lifetimes. I just thought it was premature to say that this year has proven to be very unfavorable for tropical cyclones when it's only July 2nd, well July 3rd now with this post.

I think it will be active with 15 named storms...But that will have to wait intill the peak of the hurricane season. Heck 1998,2000,2004 where all strong peak boomers. After the tutt weakens around mid August then we will see action.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Southerngale, take a look at 25 north/55 west...You can see a tutt a very powerful one which is running through the caribbean. This remains me of 2000 and 2002 which both had strong tutts. See the tutt forms area's of upper level low pressure then they retrograde back westward/west-southwestward down it. Causing deep upper level v-shear/h-shear across the caribbean/central Atlantic.

Also look at the trough that has formed over the western Atlantic...Which has been pouring on the northeast. That is another unfaverable thing for tropical development. But we will have to see how it sets up because it might just land a hurricane into new york if its west enough.

If this same pattern is around in a month or two, then I will agree with you. However, this pattern is really not that unusual for this time of the year.