NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

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CHRISTY

#41 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:12 am

WOW iam announceing the Pinhole eye Alert!

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CHRISTY

#42 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:14 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 990.1mb/ 59.0kt
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#43 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:16 am

Wow that is a nice cdo with a pin hole eye. Most likely around 70 knots right now. Could strengthen at 10 knots every 6 hours now.
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CHRISTY

#44 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:19 am

Click on this pic u can really see the pin hole eye....

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CHRISTY

#45 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:48 am

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#46 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 03, 2006 3:26 am

It has deepened rapidly overnight increasing from 45 to 70kts with the central pressure dropping 20hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 13.1N 134.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 15.8N 132.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 050600UTC 17.6N 131.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 060600UTC 19.6N 129.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
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#47 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:16 am

75kts, 960hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 13.5N 134.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 16.3N 132.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 050600UTC 17.6N 131.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 060600UTC 19.6N 129.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
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#48 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:18 am

You'd think they realize that at this point, a 15hPa drop in pressure is going to give the storm a little more than 5kts more wind, but apparently not.
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#49 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jul 03, 2006 6:19 am

WindRunner wrote:You'd think they realize that at this point, a 15hPa drop in pressure is going to give the storm a little more than 5kts more wind, but apparently not.


Good Point! They need RECON!!
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#50 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 03, 2006 6:37 am

It seems ok to me. It has only dropped 10hPa for that last 5kt increase.
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#51 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jul 03, 2006 7:53 am

P.K. wrote:It seems ok to me. It has only dropped 10hPa for that last 5kt increase.


If they're estimating right and the winds aren't still catching up . . . but this is the WPAC where everything is kind of funny anyway . . .
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#52 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 03, 2006 8:20 am

80kts, 950hPa. That is a drop of 40hPa in just 15 hours!

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 14.1N 134.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 16.8N 132.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 051200UTC 18.3N 131.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 061200UTC 19.8N 129.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
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#53 Postby whereverwx » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:36 pm

Lookin' good!

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#54 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:48 pm

No change.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 14.7N 133.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 17.0N 131.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 051800UTC 18.3N 130.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 061800UTC 20.0N 129.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
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CHRISTY

#55 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:55 pm

QSCAT...
Image

INTENSITY..
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#56 Postby whereverwx » Mon Jul 03, 2006 2:20 pm

Here are two loops and their download links!
AVN | RGB
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CHRISTY

#57 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jul 03, 2006 2:32 pm

awsome pic of ewinair...
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#58 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:15 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 15.0N 133.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 17.0N 131.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 051800UTC 18.3N 130.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
69HF 061800UTC 20.0N 129.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
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#59 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:33 pm

Wow, I missed this Typhoon! that is one nice looking typhoon so far! A pin-hole eye is present with Wilma being copied.

This should become a Super Typhoon soon.
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#60 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 03, 2006 6:00 pm

Model guidance is still suggesting this could reach 110kts, however the forecast only takes this up to 90kts.

FXPQ20 RJTD 031800
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME T 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
PSTN 031800UTC 14.7N 133.5E
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 80KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 15.2N 132.9E -007HPA +010KT
T=12 15.8N 132.4E -024HPA +021KT
T=18 16.2N 131.8E -029HPA +027KT
T=24 16.8N 131.4E -037HPA +032KT
T=30 17.3N 130.9E -034HPA +029KT
T=36 17.7N 130.3E -030HPA +026KT
T=42 17.7N 129.8E -030HPA +030KT
T=48 17.7N 129.4E -036HPA +030KT
T=54 17.7N 129.2E -036HPA +032KT
T=60 18.1N 129.2E -035HPA +034KT
T=66 18.5N 129.0E -034HPA +032KT
T=72 18.8N 128.8E -036HPA +032KT
T=78 19.4N 128.5E -034HPA +032KT
T=84 20.0N 128.0E -035HPA +032KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
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