Tropical Wave Moving Into Carribean 7/3/06

#1 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:10 am

There's a wave with decent convection moving into the Carribean today, however, wind shear is 20 - 30kts from the west.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:16 am

Before anyone asks,skysummit can make this new thread about this wave apart from the Atlantic Waves one because already the wave axis is at 60w in the Lesser Antilles with convection behind that axis.Remember that the Atlantic Waves thread is for waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

#3 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:16 am

That's a nice looking wave, and it's been mentioned in the TWD today at 8:05am. Looks like "poof" material with all that westerly flow.

#4 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:19 am

Pretty high upper level shear going on there.

#5 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:27 am

You know, it is so amazing to me that a wave can have so much convection and look so vibrant, then just disappear.

tropicana · #6 Postby **tropicana** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:46 am

Heavy rains last 12-18 hours already reported in the extreme southern islands...

Tobago 39mm
Trinidad 21mm

-justin-

Opal storm · #7 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:54 am

Surprised there's not an invest on this lol.Yes,should go poof after crossing the islands.

#8 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:06 am

you have to remember, a lot of times the reason there is convection is because of the interaction with the wave axis and the westerly winds.

#9 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:08 am

deltadog03 wrote:you have to remember, a lot of times the reason there is convection is because of the interaction with the wave axis and the westerly winds.

Do the westerlies provide a good environment for ventilating the storms or just the interaction with the wave cause increased instability and thus increased convection asociated with the wave?

clfenwi · #10 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:09 am

Oh, to think about the wave that we were talking about when it was entering the islands this time last year

...those were the days...these days the shear is so darn normal a respectable wave can't get any work done without being bothered...

Scorpion · #11 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:11 am

I miss that time. No shear, great potential for every wave.

#12 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:13 am

It's coming people......looking at the GFS long range, the shear relax is right around the corner. It's looking like we may get busy come mid to late July.

bigmoney755 · #13 Postby **bigmoney755** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:15 am

1130 AM EDT MON JUL 3 2006
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

#14 Postby **abajan** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:41 am

skysummit wrote:It's coming people......looking at the GFS long range, the shear relax is right around the corner. It's looking like we may get busy come mid to late July.

The MJO's wet phase is due around that same time! :eek:

canegrl04 · #15 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 11:49 am

Like I've been saying for awhile now. Beginning around mid July expect to see more development.I think we'll get 2 or 3 named storms this month

#16 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 11:53 am

skysummit wrote:It's coming people......looking at the GFS long range, the shear relax is right around the corner. It's looking like we may get busy come mid to late July.

Agreed. This isnt the time to get complacent; as soon as the shear relaxes the tropics may well explode into action. The pattern we are seeing now isnt all that unusual at all for early July.

CHRISTY · #17 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:01 pm

i agree george this is pretty normal for this time of year....also the new wave entering the caribbean almost looks just 93L did before it became an invest and u all know what happened after that.right now this wave is under 30 knots of westerly wind shear that will prohibit development.

NONAME · #18 Postby **NONAME** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:46 pm

um 93L was a invest for a day or so before it reach the islands.

Tropical Wave Moving Into Carribean 7/3/06

Tropical Wave Moving Into Carribean 7/3/06

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