Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

[Portastorm]

Not sure how relevant this is for you folks in Houston ... but I know it is relevant to our weather up here in south central Texas ... the extensive area of strong convection just offshore is limiting the Gulf inflow right now and has a net effect of decreasing the chance of rain at least early on today.

[jasons2k]

Hey Portastorm,

Yes you are correct and it is limiting the rain for Houston proper for now. This will likely change by later this PM or tonight.

[Johnny]

So much for a frightning Monday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So much for a frightning Monday.

I hope so. My hope right now is that none of this flooding plays out and we have a nice dry 4th of July! Likely, though, this won't play out. With such promising variables for rain in place, I doubt we will get off dry this time.

[southerngale]

Why is convection offshore limiting the Gulf inflow?

Anyway, it hasn't limited much over here. We've had a lot of rain in Beaumont so far today.

[Portastorm]

Why is convection offshore limiting the Gulf inflow?

Anyway, it hasn't limited much over here. We've had a lot of rain in Beaumont so far today.

What happens to your vaccum cleaner when it gets clogged up ... is it still able to pull air and objects through? No. Same principle, more or less, here Kelly. We have an upper low over west central Texas that is pulling moisture in from the Gulf. However, if there is a big mass of storms along the coast and offshore ... most of the moisture is being used in that mass of storms and thus in inland areas, there is less moisture pulled in and less opportunity for convection to develop.

And yes, I am NOT a meteorologist but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night (not really )

[Stratosphere747]

Don't worry, it's coming.

Looks like that ULL nudged a bit north and kept this inital batch just offshore. Looks like the line is building back to the west and south.

Give it a another hour or so and Brazoria, Ft Bend, into Harris will be getting soaked.

[Portastorm]

Wow ... the image from the Houston radar looks downright scary.

[southerngale]

Ok, Portastorm, thanks. So you're mainly talking about farther inland. I was thinking, "Don't we need storms along the coast and offshore moving ashore to get the rain that's expected?" I wasn't thinking about you being in Austin either.

And let's not talk about the things that get into and clog my vacuum cleaner!

[JenBayles]

Don't worry, it's coming.

Looks like that ULL nudged a bit north and kept this inital batch just offshore. Looks like the line is building back to the west and south.

Give it a another hour or so and Brazoria, Ft Bend, into Harris will be getting soaked.

You get the gold star! It's 10:06 and the leading edge is in Ft. Bend county now. I'm in west Harris county so expect to get wet this afternoon. Having peeks of sun here so far this morning and wondering if that may mean heavier rain for later?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston radar is now showing storms over the Gulf beginning to move more north toward the city. It is only a matter of time now before we are soaked..

[Stratosphere747]

Don't worry, it's coming.

Looks like that ULL nudged a bit north and kept this inital batch just offshore. Looks like the line is building back to the west and south.

Give it a another hour or so and Brazoria, Ft Bend, into Harris will be getting soaked.

You get the gold star! It's 10:06 and the leading edge is in Ft. Bend county now. I'm in west Harris county so expect to get wet this afternoon. Having peeks of sun here so far this morning and wondering if that may mean heavier rain for later?

Hard to say Jen.

We can count our blessings that this first area stayed offshore, otherwise we would have seen some serious flooding as it seemed like a classical training line.

Not sure if there will be enough heating, but there seems to be a firing up of storms to the west of Corpus.

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031512
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM IT APPEARS SE TX MIGHT HAVE DODGED A BULLET. AS
OFTEN HAPPENS IN THESE WEAK FLOW SUMMER REGIMES...THE MESOSCALE
TAKES OVER. WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROF NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING
PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR +RA LATE LAST NIGHT & EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
THE BEACHES FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND WHERE 2-3" HAS FELL SO
FAR AND SOME 3-4" PIXELS NOTED CLOSER TO SAN LUIS PASS.
LUCKILY...THIS BOUNDARY HAS KEPT THE HEAVIEST RAIN OFFSHORE (NOTE
THE 10" AREA ABOUT 30NM SOUTH OF FREEPORT SINCE MIDNIGHT) WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN FURTHER INLAND. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
SHIELD SPREADING INLAND EVEN FURTHER NORTH MAY VERY WELL DELAY THE
ONSET OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WELL THERE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN WHEN A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM. THOUGH MY GUT SAYS FLOOD THREAT
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...I AM HESITANT
TO CANCEL THE WATCH DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COASTAL TROF BOUNDARY IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST
PERIOD FCST...MAINLY TO THE GRIDDED DATA AND UPDATE THE HWO & FFA.
STILL DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WERE OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY MEANS AS THE
ENTIRE WEEK LOOKS WET. 47

[JenBayles]

Hey Strat! Yeah, we in our little subdivision call it "The Bear Creek Dome". When you check out Houston radar and see a little donut hole in the rain off to the west, that's us. I bet Yankee Girl can confirm the phenomenon as well.

Unfortunately, it doesn't take much for our streets to fill up these days due to increased runoff from new building in our watersheds to the NW. Anything over 3" and it looks like Venice. And of course, in our semi-tropical area, we can get 3" per hour in some of our garden-variety afternoon piss-downs.

May the Dome protect us!

[jasons2k]

As the coastal trough moves inland the line of convection currently in the Gulf will become detached from the main axis. If the initial line out there breaks down later in the day/tonight this will open the flood gate for storms to reform on the axis. This will have to be watched closely as round 2 may set up right over Houston.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We've had 2-4 Inches already in the Beaumont area. This is only day 1 folks. Flooding is LIKELY this entire week.

[jasons2k]

We've had 2-4 Inches already in the Beaumont area. This is only day 1 folks. Flooding is LIKELY this entire week.

Excellent reminder. This is not a 1-shot deal. The NWS spoke of a secondary peak of PWS of Friday.

[Johnny]

Houston radar is now showing storms over the Gulf beginning to move more north toward the city. It is only a matter of time now before we are soaked.

This radar shows the northerly movement quite well.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The new WRF is trying to dry us out to quick beginning Wednesday. The 12Z GFS is not. We actually have a weak frontal boundary that will sag south by Thursday and Friday keeping the flood threat going. Maybe some drying by the weekend.

[Yankeegirl]

Hey Strat! Yeah, we in our little subdivision call it "The Bear Creek Dome". When you check out Houston radar and see a little donut hole in the rain off to the west, that's us. I bet Yankee Girl can confirm the phenomenon as well.

Unfortunately, it doesn't take much for our streets to fill up these days due to increased runoff from new building in our watersheds to the NW. Anything over 3" and it looks like Venice. And of course, in our semi-tropical area, we can get 3" per hour in some of our garden-variety afternoon piss-downs.

May the Dome protect us!

Totally agree!!! Everytime! I swear!!