Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

southerngale · #81 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:45 pm

It's been raining here for hours. I think it's just sitting right on top of us. Most of the Weathernet stations either haven't been replaced since Rita or don't work properly, but several of the ones that are working in Beaumont show about 5 inches of rain already. I haven't been out in this mess today, but my sister has, and she had to dodge street flooding.

From the morning NWS Lake Charles discussion (which covers Beaumont):

MORNING KLCH RAOB
SHOWED PWATS NEAR 2.3 INCHES...AND THIS MOISTURE IS GOING NOWHERE
FAST WITH PROGGED SLUGGISH MOVEMENT OF TX UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION...IN
THE SHORT TERM...BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN ADVANCING
EASTWARD HAS COLLIDED WITH ANOTHER WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY...WITH
A RESULTING ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WEST OF SABINE PASS AND A
MARKED REDUCTION EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BAND. MY CONCERN IS
THAT THIS RESULTING ENHANCED BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM...PERHAPS CONTINUING ONLY A
SLUGGISH EASTWARD MOTION.

WILL SEE WHAT THE MODELS HAVE IN STORE WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS...BUT
IT APPEARS FROM QUICK LOOKS THAT TOMORROW COULD BE EVEN WETTER.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

#82 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:59 pm

Looks like a new axis of precip is in the very early stages of forming along the I-45 corridor from Houston to Madisonville. Probably need a couple more hours to see if this verifies or if it's just some scattered convection.

#83 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:39 pm

What will happen is there will be a break this evening and early tonight as the atmosphere has really been worked over. BUT as usual in these types of events more will develop later tonight into early Tuesday. That's when there will be more flooding.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #84 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:48 pm

Wow. We haven't had a day like this down here in the Corpus area in a Looooooonnnnnng time. What I mean is a nice steady, soaking rain event where it stays wet from sun up to sun down.

A drought buster? Maybe not. But it will put a big dent in it.

#85 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:54 pm

No drought here! :raincloud:

#86 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 2:40 pm

jschlitz wrote:Looks like a new axis of precip is in the very early stages of forming along the I-45 corridor from Houston to Madisonville. Probably need a couple more hours to see if this verifies or if it's just some scattered convection.

Well, looks like just a few cells that popped-up. I guess we'll have to wait 'till tonight to see who gets it next round.

Extremeweatherguy · #87 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 2:42 pm

it has been mostly a light rain here in Spring today. Probably 0.10" or less since noon.

Yankeegirl · #88 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 2:49 pm

Not too much here either... Just a few drops...

#89 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 3:05 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY JUST LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SHRA ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTN AS EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL TROF SAVED THE
REST OF THE AREA.

OTHER THAN KNOWING THAT THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY MOIST WITH
PW'S >2" FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN - THERE WILL BE EXCELLENT CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSTM THRU AT LEAST THURS. BUT CONFIDENCE OF WHEN, WHERE AND
HOW MUCH IS REALLY LOW. LIKE TODAY...IT WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON
MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FCST BEYOND THE FIRST
PERIOD.

SO THE BEST GUESTIMATE AS TO HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT IS AS
FOLLOWS: WILL PROBABLY SEE A BREAK THIS EVENING FROM ALL THE
PRECIP AND GIVE THE ATMOS NEAR AND OFF THE COAST TIME TO RECOVER.
BY MIDNIGHT...NAM (WHICH HAS DONE A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH FCST SFC
FEATURES) IS SHOWING THE TROF AXIS MOVING INLAND AND PARKING
ITSELF ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. GFS SHOWING SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SAME AREA AT THAT TIME. SO...BELIEVE WE'LL SEE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND ALONG THAT BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LASTING THRU THE MORNING HOURS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WE COULD VERY
WELL SEE A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER TUE AFTN AND EVENING.
ACCUMULATION-WISE...OBVISIOUSLY HIGHEST WILL BE ALONG ANY FOCUSING
BOUNDARY. THINK THE CURRENT STORM TOTAL PRECIP PRODUCT (AS OF
MIDNIGHT) OFFSHORE IS A DECENT ESTIMATE. WIDESPREAD 2-3"...WITH
EMBEDDED MUCH HIGHER TOTALS (NOTICE THE 8-12" 30NM SOUTH OF
FREEPORT). MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A
PROBLEM WITH THE RAIN...BUT ANYONE WHO MAY GET THE EXTREME 6-12"
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL TEND TO DISAGREE. SO...PLAN ON
CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH THRU MIDNIGHT AND RE-STARTING IT FROM
MID-6PM TUE.

FEW CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE PACKAGE - JUST WET - AND THE GROUND
BECOMING MORE SATURATED WITH TIME. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...AND WHO
KNOWS IF IT'LL VERIFY OR NOT...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET TAKE THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF US AFTER THURS. BUT GFS/NAM/NOGAPS SAYS IT AIN'T SO.
12Z GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS AN EASTERLY WAVE INTO THE TX COAST THIS
WEEKEND... 47

&&

#90 Postby **Canebo** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:34 pm

JenBayles wrote:Hey Strat! Yeah, we in our little subdivision call it "The Bear Creek Dome". When you check out Houston radar and see a little donut hole in the rain off to the west, that's us. I bet Yankee Girl can confirm the phenomenon as well.

May the Dome protect us!

We must have the "League City" version of your dome down here. Everyone else seems to get the rain, but we usually end up with the proverbial rock. Not that I was looking forward to the "copious" amounts of rain that was predicted, but more than .2"s would be nice. Hopefully, someone's rainshower will get lost and end up here before the week is over.

southerngale · #91 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:40 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
432 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING RAINFALL FORECAST CONTINUES AS CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ON THE WANE OVER SE TX/SW LA...WITH ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. DAMAGE HAS BEEN DONE SO
TO SPEAK OVER EXTREME SE TX THOUGH...WHERE BPT AREA PICKED UP A
QUICK 3-5 INCHES EARLIER...WITH THEIR RESULTING FFG VALUES
DROPPING TO 1 INCH/HR AND 2 INCHES/3HRS. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
BREAK FORTHCOMING FROM THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING...RE-DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WHEN...WHERE...AND IF ANY BANDS
OF HVY RAIN WILL MATERIALIZE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF HVY RAINFALL TOMORROW...HAVE OPTED
TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR SE TX/SW LA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFT.

FCST MDLS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH THE CONSENSUS POINTS TO ENE MOVEMENT TO
NE TX AS AN UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE GRT LAKES. BEYOND
THAT...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DIGGING
UPPER TROF WILL PICK UP THE LOW OR LEAVE IT BEHIND TO RETROGRADE
SW UNDERNEATH THE AMPLIFYING SRN PLAINS RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE LATTER...SO HAVE MODELED GRIDS TO FIT THAT
IDEA. I HAD MY HANDS FULL ENOUGH WITH THE SHORT TERM STUFF...SO
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE FEW.

&&

KatDaddy · #92 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:03 pm

It seems like it this time around Canebo. Just looking over at my weather station as I type. Only .53" today from a steady rain. I know you are not far from where I live so you got pretty much the same. Forecast discussion indicates the boundry that caused all the rains this morning will set up shop along I-10 after midnight.

#93 Postby **Diva** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:58 pm

Hubby just checked the rain guage and we've had 3 and a quarter inches of rain today! We're north of Orange.

Extremeweatherguy · #94 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:59 pm

there are now peaks of sun this afternoon in Spring. This could be fuel for tonights rains.

#95 Postby **Canebo** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 6:27 pm

KatDaddy wrote:It seems like it this time around Canebo. Just looking over at my weather station as I type. Only .53" today from a steady rain. I know you are not far from where I live so you got pretty much the same. Forecast discussion indicates the boundry that caused all the rains this morning will set up shop along I-10 after midnight.

Hey there Katdaddy. Today was better,as I got the same 1/2" you got plus a Junebug in my Rain gauge. We're usually so dry here in July and August, I always hope for some good soaking rains in June. This, combined with the cloudy days and cooler temps will keep my from watering this week at least. Hopefully, we'll have another day or two like this and I'll be happy.

#96 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 7:39 pm

I had .20" over the weekend and .58" overnight/today. So far not very impressive.

#97 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 8:10 pm

So far 1.11" Saturday and 0.04" today w/ nada on Sunday. Ground is saturated though so any heavy will turn to runoff here in Spring Branch. I think this West end of SB must be under you dome sometimes Jen. Other places get sloshed and we get a little if any. Good to see you posting some more!!!!

Yankeegirl · #98 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 8:17 pm

Look at that big flare up down in South Texas... Is that coming this way later ?

#99 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:27 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Look at that big flare up down in South Texas... Is that coming this way later ?

Channel 2 says it is. I've been looking at the radar loop from Brownsville and an outflow with the storms is pushing rapidly east towards the GOM. I'm wondering if it holds together, if it will cut off our inflow once again. I doubt it, but just a thought...

#100 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:31 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
855 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...LIKE THE PAST TWO EVENINGS...THE RADAR IS QUIET
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
AND WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE TWO INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN
AND WHERE DOES THE CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS?
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE RUC 200MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND THE RUC
1000-500MB WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW TO MID LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THAT SAID...BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 18Z NAM PROGS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS
WEST TX TO ELONGATE FROM NORTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST TX WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST TX AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO LOWER POPS THIS
EVENING AND ADJUST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS MORNING. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 10 INCHES AS SEEN WITH THE
MORNING CONVECTION THAT FELL ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX
COAST...WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...IF A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY STALLS
ACROSS THE CWA...TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SAME
AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH LARGE
ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL.

Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

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