CMC, couple runs in a row, east coast Storm!

#21 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:11 pm

From the 2:05pm Disco:

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 30N77W...
WITH A TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N77W 29N70W 35N63W ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIXED INTO THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N75W
26N76W 26N77W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N72W. THE NUMBER
ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
NEAR 29N45W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER WITHIN 400 NM TO THE WEST...AND WITHIN 200 NM TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 17N57W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AWAY FROM THE AREAS OF MOISTURE
AROUND THE 29N45W LOW CENTER. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 35N51W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH
OF THE ITCZ/TROPICAL WAVES WEST OF AFRICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE 29N45W LOW CENTER...FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES THROUGH 32N20W TO 27N21W TO
21N23W.

bucman1 · #22 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:11 pm

Seems to be a little bit of circulation-flare up could be due to some warm pockets.

Rainband · #23 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:14 pm

Aquawind wrote:
bucman1 wrote:It looks like a nice a flareup-if shear just doesn't rip it apart we might have a little something!

Badda Bing.. Mr Shear again... he he he

As a ULL it has alot of work ahead anyways to get to the surface.. That is not a common occurance..

agreed thats why I am concerned :wink:

bucman1 · #24 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:16 pm

does anybody know the shear in this area?

#25 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:18 pm

bucman1 wrote:does anybody know the shear in this area?

Anywhere from 10 - 30kts in the upper levels and 10 - 20kts in the mid levels.

#26 Postby **Noah** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:23 pm

Ok where is this going experts? Will west coast get hit again? And when???

With rain that is..

bucman1 · #27 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:24 pm

thank you sky-not overly condusive for developement

Aquawind · #28 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:25 pm

Rainband wrote:
Aquawind wrote:
bucman1 wrote:It looks like a nice a flareup-if shear just doesn't rip it apart we might have a little something!

Badda Bing.. Mr Shear again... he he he

As a ULL it has alot of work ahead anyways to get to the surface.. That is not a common occurance..
agreed thats why I am concerned

I think you forgot to put the word NOT in there.. :lol:

Hope so..

CHRISTY · #29 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:25 pm

bucman1 wrote:does anybody know the shear in this area?

Link to Shear....http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSHEARATL_12z/comploop.html

N2DaTropics · #30 Postby **N2DaTropics** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 2:10 pm

FOURTH OF JULY...INVERTED TROF/TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST IS PROGGED BY THE NAM AND GFS TO BE APPROACHING THE STATE. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE TROF OVER THE NORTHERN US WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
AND SLOWLY DIG SOUTHWARD. THE GFS PICKS UP THE TROF/WAVE AND LIFTS
IT AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THE NAM TRIES TO CLOSE OFF
WAVE INTO A LOW AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH JUST LIKE
IN THE GFS. THINK THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR CWA
AS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR US.

#31 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 3:05 pm

Shear is tearing everything to bits lately

TS Zack · #32 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 3:13 pm

It might develop when that trough drops down the East Coast yet again. Still it will not be completely tropical in nature.

This pattern just will not give. Very boring because it spells for no daily thunderstorm chances nor any hurricane activity. JB was just on Fox News talking about his New York city nailer this year, how when you have a trough over the Northeast?

#33 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 3:29 pm

Well some of the worse storms my part of North American (New England and the Maritimes) have ever had are due to cold core and warm core systems basically merging, phasing if you prefer a more technical explanation. The Portland Gale of 1898, the Halloween Gale of 1991, the Cold Front that entrained moisture from Hurricane Lili for a week causing the record Western Maine flood of 1996, and flooding caused by the phasing of the Remnants of TS Harvey and a extratropical low that brought record flooding to Nova Scotia and SE New Brunswick in 1999, spring to mind. Usually this is a Fall and/or Winter time event, and it would be quite hard to get the dynamics correct in Summer. As such it probably wouldn't be a huge storm, but still one never knows for sure. I'll be keeping a close eye on this developing situation later in the week, just in case.

#34 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 3:37 pm

TS Zack wrote:This pattern just will not give. Very boring because it spells for no daily thunderstorm chances nor any hurricane activity. JB was just on Fox News talking about his New York city nailer this year, how when you have a trough over the Northeast?

Because in essence you need a Trough of some type to capture the TC and pull it into New England in it' SW flow. Most every storm that has ever hit this Region, especially the big ones, have been well embed in the SW flow just ahead of a Trough line. Also in certain disastrous flooding situations, like Hazel 1954 and Agnes 1972, the baroclinic zone actually acts to help enhance the storm via phasing, it off set the normal weakening from interaction with land and lose of the tropical energy source.

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:17 pm

761
ABNT20 KNHC 032109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Well,NHC has started to mention this area but development if any will be slow to occur as they say.

TS Zack · #36 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:29 pm

The trough is to strong and persistent. It will maintain a block over the Northeast turning everything away in that strong SW Flow aloft.

A Central US trough will draw hurricanes towards the New England states not a trough over the Northeast.

#37 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:34 pm

Zack is correct. A trough over the NE would recurve a TC long before it reached New England States. But, a trough futher west would allow the recurve futher west, thus allowing for a track more consistent with a NE threat......MGC

#38 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:41 pm

I never said a coastal or offshore Trough, did I. I assume JB's thinking is it will move further West, the mean position of the Eastern NOAM Trough, as the Bermuda High strengthens, and the Summer wares on into early Fall.

#39 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:54 pm

The odds of a NYC hit by a Cat-2 or greater are less than another Katrina type hurricane for the gulf coast. JB is just hyping it up to make money off the people in the NE.....MGC

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #40 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:02 pm

Lets see if we can get something to track...The eastern pacific is even quit. zzzz

I think what ever develops will be pulled up between the two highs. With the trough at the upper levels forming a surface low as it moves northward. Also the cmc develops a anticyclones(over this low pressure at 200 millibars. Anyways more rain for the northeast.

Come on Beryl!!! :lol:

We will about track.

CMC, couple runs in a row, east coast Storm!

Tallahassee NWS AFD chimes in on the area in the Bahamas...

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