This area near the Bahamas is impressive

[Weatherfreak000]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg


Of course I mean the area near the Bahamas. Convection has been solid, and shear isn't too brutal. If the convection has sustain itself i'd say it's a decent enough candidate for 96L.



Thoughts?


Also i'd like to address something if a pro-met can answer. It does indeed seem to show the wave in the BOC got stripped of it's energy. Any reason why it wasn't mentioned in the TWO? Also do you expect it to pick back up during the Diurnal Convective Maximum?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 032109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[storms in NC]

You might want to go here
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2&start=40

[canegrl04]

At least they are hinting that development can happen. Will be the area to track over the coming days if it holds together well

[Recurve]

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS:
GOES-12 MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGE LOOPS REVEAL AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
COLD-CORE CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST
NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THIS FEATURE
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEST DEFINED AT ABOUT 300MB...WITH A
SHARP TROUGH DOWN TO 500MB. A HIGHER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE SYSTEM OVER MUCH OF THE
BAHAMAS...WHERE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT IS CENTERED. LATEST
KEY WEST DOPPLER VAD WIND PROFILE MEASUREMENTS SHOW THE LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAVING BACKED FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...NOW
AVERAGING ABOUT 080/10KT. NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSES FROM 12Z SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXISTS OVER
THE BAHAMAS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH...AND THIS MAY
HELP EXPLAIN THE LOCALLY BACKED WIND FLOW.

LOCAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CHARACTERISTIC OF A
TYPICAL DIURNAL MODE...WITH FAST-DEVELOPING...SHORT-LIVED PULSE
CELLS INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR LAND AREAS WITH OCEANIC CONVECTION
WANING.

FORECAST:
THE UPPER CYCLONE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. THEN...FROM 24-72
HOURS...THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE IN A GENERALLY WEST OR
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. IN DOING SO...THE SYSTEM
WILL COME VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SLOW WEST OR SOUTHWEST
MOVEMENT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO FALLING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS TO THE
WEST AND RISING HEIGHTS TO THE EAST. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE LOCATED WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE SERVICE AREA...AS A LARGE DEEP
LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.

A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SFC-700MB LAYER...CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE ORIENTATIONS OF CONVECTIVE STEERING
FLOW...AND ENHANCED SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WARRANTS ABOVE-AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES...AND WE
WILL INDICATE 12-HOUR RAIN CHANCES OF AROUND 50 PERCENT TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGY THEREAFTER.
&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY AND
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
KMIA-KEYW FLIGHT ROUTE...AS WELL AS AT THE KEYW AND KMTH TERMINALS.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WILL OCCUR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND
BOUNDARIES...SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 070/8-12KTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 79/89/79/89/79 50/50/50/50/50
MARATHON 79/92/79/92/79 50/50/50/50/50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

K. KASPER
L. KASPER
T. TARLTON

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=136

[Weatherfreak000]

You might want to go here
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2&start=40

I thought this topic was about a different system forming..

[cycloneye]

You might want to go here
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2&start=40

I thought this topic was about a different system forming..

This thread can remain open.Weatherfreak000,did you read the TWO?

[Weatherfreak000]

You might want to go here
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2&start=40

I thought this topic was about a different system forming..

This thread can remain open.Weatherfreak000,did you read the TWO?

I did, it's good to see the NHC didn't even really have to make a transition to "Conditions are unfavorable" to "Slow development is possible". It just sort of happened.


I kinda look at these things when determining development.

[spinfan4eva]

Local met in Jacksonville Mike Buresh is not too excited about it:
http://www.fox30online.com/talkingtropi ... 8A85C195AD

Shear is a plenty across much of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean & a good part of the Atlantic too. This makes tropical development difficult so even though there are several areas of "disturbed" weather, any development is not very likely.
(1) Most interesting, perhaps, is an upper level low north of the Bahamas & about due east of Cape Canaveral. A quick glance at satellite photos might impress one for a moment, but this feature is an upper level low (with possibly the entrainment of a weak tropical wave). This system will move slowly west & sometimes upper level lows can eventually transition to a tropical system but such is an arduous process & is unlikely with this upper level low. The upper low will move to near and/or over Florida by Wednesday night/Thursday. On its west side, we'll continue to be quite dry but tropical moisture & showers & storms will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon.

[wxman57]

Chances of tropical development appear low. Wind shear is on the high side, and pressures are very high across the Bahamas (1022-1025mb). But the system could spread some thunderstorms into the FL Peninsula tomorrow. By Wednesday, an approaching cold front may pick it up and take it off to the N-NNE (as the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are suggesting). Tropical development chances would remain low, but it could become a subtropical and/or frontal low that spreads rain northward up the east U.S. Coast Wed/Thu. It's something to keep an eye on, but I see nothing that makes me overly concerned about development yet.

[stormtruth]

Chances of tropical development appear low. Wind shear is on the high side, and pressures are very high across the Bahamas (1022-1025mb). But the system could spread some thunderstorms into the FL Peninsula tomorrow. By Wednesday, an approaching cold front may pick it up and take it off to the N-NNE (as the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are suggesting). Tropical development chances would remain low, but it could become a subtropical and/or frontal low that spreads rain northward up the east U.S. Coast Wed/Thu. It's something to keep an eye on, but I see nothing that makes me overly concerned about development yet.

Another non-Beryl tropical low that floods the East coast? Rain keeps falling on all the same places.

[hurricanefloyd5]

local weatrher guy tom terry said it will come into south florida and come back into central florida and up the east coast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HURAKAN]

I'M BACK FROM PUNTA CANA!!!

It has been a phenomenal week but tracking hurricanes is what I enjoy the most!!!

I see there has not been a major developing in my absence, but the WPAC typhoon looks interesting!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah can't wait intill something forms. This doe's not look to have much chance over the short term. The eastern pacific even quit.

[cycloneye]

I'M BACK FROM PUNTA CANA!!!

It has been a phenomenal week but tracking hurricanes is what I enjoy the most!!!

I see there has not been a major developing in my absence, but the WPAC typhoon looks interesting!!!

Welcome back Sandy.You didn't lost anything big.Only a few invests in the Atlantic=91L,92L,93L,94L and in the EPAC 95E,96E and 97E.The most exciting one was 91L which was almost a depression but recon didn't find a LLC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

91L would of been a 50 mph tropical storm. In all that needed to be found was a weak north wind.

[cycloneye]

Oh Sandy I forgot 95L that was very brief near the Bahamas.

[SouthFloridawx]

This shows a wrap up of what happend in the atlantic since you were gone.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=frames

[Stratusxpeye]

91L would of been a 50 mph tropical storm. In all that needed to be found was a weak north wind.

A missed named storm. About as close as you get and prolly the strongest Invest I've ever seen. Had the same effects as a 40mph ts and a whol lot of moisture.