This area near the Bahamas is impressive

jusforsean · #21 Postby **jusforsean** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 8:21 pm

this is affecting the bahamas now correct"? Can we get a link of input of the conditions there like we have for puerto rico?
So, i suppose our 4th is a wash out?

boca · #22 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:07 pm

Our 4th will not be a washout because that system in the Bahamas is stationary so our weather should be like today in my humble opinion. reasoning is because dry air is being entrained southward along the Florida coastline on the west side of the ULL in the Bahamas.

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:24 pm

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

The above is from the 10:30 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook.

boca · #24 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:27 pm

I gather from reading the two that it will move westward but I was staring at the sat loop and I couldn't find any westward movement whatsoever.

bigmoney755 · #25 Postby **bigmoney755** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:30 pm

Given the trends this season, I expect no development due to 20-30kts of shear.

boca · #26 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:32 pm

I agree 100%.

CHRISTY · #27 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:38 pm

boca wrote:Our 4th will not be a washout because that system in the Bahamas is stationary so our weather should be like today in my humble opinion. reasoning is because dry air is being entrained southward along the Florida coastline on the west side of the ULL in the Bahamas.

actually boca i would have to say our fireworks seem to be in jeopardy as iam seeing it right now.What iam seeing is this ULL will begin to move SW into florida so the front side of this ULL is dry so in the morning hours it looks dry but come tomorrow evening iam seeing a good chance of rain especially as we will be on the back side of this ULL which is were all the wet weather is.So iam thinkin a 70% percent chance of wet weather.Wednesday & Thursday look very wet as of right now. :wink:

bigmoney755 · #28 Postby **bigmoney755** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:41 pm

will this impact the discovery?

boca · #29 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:43 pm

It the ULL starts moving it will,but its not moving yet.

CHRISTY · #30 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:45 pm

bigmoney755 wrote:will this impact the discovery?

i dont think so cause we will be on the front side of the ULL around lift of time.so iam thinking it will be dry.its a 50-50 chance in my opinnion.

CHRISTY · #31 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:47 pm

boca wrote:It the ULL starts moving it will,but its not moving yet.

from what i know right now its suppose to begin drifting SW in the coming hours.Anyone else see it different?

boca · #32 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:50 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I see it moving west of due south which would keep us dry for a great 4th for all of us. I'm willing to bet that the NWS will lower the rain chances tomorrow to 30 or 40%.

CHRISTY · #33 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 9:53 pm

boca wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I see it moving west of due south which would keep us dry for a great 4th for all of us. I'm willing to bet that the NWS will lower the rain chances tomorrow to 30 or 40%.

iam calling for dry conditions in the morning and early afternoon hours with the rain chance increaseing late in the day.wednesday & thursday look very wet to me.

CHRISTY · #34 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:00 pm

IR loop...

#35 Postby **fci** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:04 pm

I'm with Boca on this one.
Scattered storms for fireworks time like today.
Forecast is for "scattered" tomorrow and "numerous" on Wed.
Today was for "numerous" and it did not happen.
NOT a washout for the 4th festivities (and better not be because we are going to an adjacent neighborhood for an amazing fireworks show!)

CHRISTY · #36 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:06 pm

fci wrote:I'm with Boca on this one.
Scattered storms for fireworks time like today.
Forecast is for "scattered" tomorrow and "numerous" on Wed.
Today was for "numerous" and it did not happen.
NOT a washout for the 4th festivities (and better not be because we are going to an adjacent neighborhood for an amazing fireworks show!)

Tell me about it i spent about 80 bucks on fireworks today...so hopefully things look good.

no advance · #37 Postby **no advance** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 10:12 pm

Bearish on this system. Steve Lyon on TWC said to watch for a low pressure to form east of the upper lew low. Good night.

boca · #38 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 8:35 am

Looks like we will have a nice 4th here in S. FL today as the ULL is moving SSW keeping us on the dry side.

Tomorrow it will be wet as we'll be on the wet side of the ULL.

rockyman · #39 Postby **rockyman** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 8:37 am

Low Pressure appears to be working down to the surface:

700mb (Mid levels) 24 hours ago (no vorticity):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... or3-8.html

700mb (Mid levels) now (vorticity):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor3.html

850mb (Low level) 9 hours ago (no vorticity):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... or4-3.html

850mb (Low level) now (vorticity beginning):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

chadtm80 · #40 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 8:38 am

12 hour animation.. http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=139

This area near the Bahamas is impressive

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