Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THE TEXAS COAST WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND STALLS OVER EAST TEXAS, INCREASING LIFT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA.

&&

.UPDATE...FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL EXCEPT EASTERN ZONES.
SOME CLOUD TOP COOLING COULD ENHANCE PRECIP LATE TNITE. MAY NEED
TO EXTEND FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD BY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW.

INCREASED POPS AFTER EVENING LCH SOUNDING CONFIRMED A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE WHICH FCST NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE. PWATS OVER 2.2
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. THETA RIDGING, SPEED CONVERGENCE AND PVA
FROM SHORT WAVE ALL FACTORS FOR INCREASING COVERAGE. MAINLY RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS.

[Starburst]

woke up to heavy rain again this a.m. did not last long though maybe we are coming to the end.

[southerngale]

That would be nice, Starburst, but it doesn't sound like the case, at least over here in Southeast Texas.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SYNOPSIS...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LO IN THE MID/UPR-LVLS
SPINNING OVER W TX WHILE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES RIDGING OVER THE
SERN CONUS FROM THE ATLC. COMBO OF THESE TWO FEATURES ALLOWING FOR A
DEEP SRLY FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA W/ 00Z KLCH
SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT VALUE OF AROUND 2.3 INCHES (ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND A MEAN RH EXCEEDING 90 PERCENT. REGIONAL 00Z
SONDES SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE BIG DIFFERENCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THE LACK OF
COVERAGE ON REGIONAL 88DS...JUST A FEW RW RECENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SWRN LA AND LITTLE ACTIVITY SHOWING UP OVER THE CSTL WATERS ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CUTOFF LO OVER W TX IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY BACK
TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK IMPULSES SLIDE AROUND IT. LATEST
MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE HOLDING IN THE RIDICULOUS 2.3 TO
2.4 INCH CATEGORY...MAYBE EVEN RISING A LITTLE BIT MORE BY TOMORROW.
AS IMPULSES CROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS MRNG AND INTO THE
AFTN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE
GREATER. AS STATED YDAY THE ONLY THING MISSING FROM MAKING THIS A
REAL EYE-OPENING EVENT IS A GOOD LO-LVL FOCUS MECHANISM...WILL
HAVE TO RELY ON OUTFLOWS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT.

WOULD HAVE GONE CLOSER TO A 100 POP FOR THE WRN ZONES IF WE`D HAVE
SEEN ONGOING CONVECTION SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YDAY...THEREFORE WILL
JUST GO W/ A LITTLE TAMER 80 POP. DESPITE A RELATIVE LACK OF
PRECIP ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA NORTH OF THE HWY 190 OR I-10
CORRIDORS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THAT
REGION BASED ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS TODAY. AREA SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS ROUGHLY KLCH TO KBPT
AND SOUTH TO THE COAST. FOR THE ERN ZONES...LOWERED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR TODAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOK TO BE ON A LITTLE LESS
GRAND SCALE THAN THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA.

LOWERED TEMPS ANOTHER DEG OR TWO ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE
AREA...KEEPING THEM AROUND 80 OR LWR 80S AT BEST THANKS TO ALL THE
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. OFF TO THE E...TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE MID
80S W/ A FEW ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WOULDN`T BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE A LOCATION OR TWO (OR MORE) HIT THE UPR 80S
ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.

BY LATER IN THE WEEK THE LO IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
TO MEANDER OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS FCST TO
REMAIN PLENTIFUL SO CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...SRLY FLOW TO PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD AS HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED TO OUR E.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN AND NEAR PRECIP...OTHERWISE VFR W/
CIGS ABOVE 3K FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 75 86 75 / 80 50 70 40
KBPT 81 75 86 75 / 80 50 70 40
KAEX 85 72 86 72 / 70 40 70 40
KLFT 85 74 86 74 / 70 40 50 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...AND CAMERON.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...AND TYLER.

CW...NONE.

&&

$$

LGE

[Starburst]

I know Southerngale I just looked at ours looks about the same as yours. It was a nice thought though Happy 4Th!!

[Johnny]

After reading thie forecast this morning, I won't be seeing much at all out of this here in Montgomery County.....just cloud cover and sprinkle or two.

[KatDaddy]

DP is setting at 76F as I watch the storms move NE toward N Galveston County. Its a gradual NE movement so I expect 1-2" but see nothing extreme.

[Johnny]

The radar is lighting up a bit more right now at 11:45 a.m. but nothing to write home to momma about. It seems like the huge canopy of cloud cover is hampering widespread downpours which will continue the remainder of the day. Sure, some spots will get some solid downpours but widespread flooding, I don't think so...which is fine by me. It seems like when their is alot of hype about a weather event, they usually have no bite. The ones that sneak up on us are the ones we need to worry about. lol

[stormtruth]

Looks like same rain now -> http://www.click2houston.com/wxmap/2216343/detail.html

Maybe it won't last long.

[hriverajr]

Oh an aside.. I live southwest of Corpus Christi. I have a Davis Vantage Pro II Weather Station and right now the dewpoint is over 80!

[Johnny]

Wow, over 80??!!! That's almost unheard of. We have a 74 degree dewpoint here in Conroe.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nice storm moving through Spring right now with heavy rain, gusty winds, cool clouds and a few bolts of lightning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out the latest wind report from IAH:

S 22 G 38

seems pretty strong for just a seemingly typical storm.

[hriverajr]

Wow, over 80??!!! That's almost unheard of. We have a 74 degree dewpoint here in Conroe.

Well its down to 79 now... hehe

[hriverajr]

check out the latest wind report from IAH:

S 22 G 38

seems pretty strong for just a seemingly typical storm.

My understanding is it is a pretty good outflow boundary that originated down here in extreme south texas from some storms last night

[Stormtrack]

Pretty fast moving system. It was mostly over with in a little over an hour after it started for us a little after 10 am. We got 1.6" in Angleton. Other days totals: Sat. 0.6", Sun. 2.3", Mon. 0.8". It might be nice to see some days without rain so I can mow my lawn.

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like more storms are developing south of the main line. We could see round two for Houston in 1-3 hours. Hopefully all is clear by firework time though!

[vbhoutex]

Another 1.11" here at the SB abode when the rains came through. Most fell withing a 45 minute time period. Of course it had to hit while I was moving a refrigerator we just bought from the old owners to our house. Can you say drowned rat?

Looks like that secondary line may be gelling into a decent MCS before it gets into the city proper. Possible localized street flooding from it??? Wait and see as usual. I could easily live with it dissapating too!!!

[Houstonia]

Another 1.11" here at the SB abode when the rains came through. Most fell withing a 45 minute time period. Of course it had to hit while I was moving a refrigerator we just bought from the old owners to our house. Can you say drowned rat?

Looks like that secondary line may be gelling into a decent MCS before it gets into the city proper. Possible localized street flooding from it??? Wait and see as usual. I could easily live with it dissapating too!!!

Mostly sunny up here in beautiful Northwest Harris County. We had a rain shower earlier - about an hour or so ago - it wasn't very heavy and it didn't last very long.

[Extremeweatherguy]

it actually feels nice outside right now. Upper 70s, mostly sunny, light breeze... ahhh The only downside is another area of rain is on the way.

[BreinLa]

I know this is a Texas thread but oh well, it's been raining here in South Louisiana off and on all day and pretty much every day since Saturday. Might give the city employees they have hired to ride around town checking whose watering their lawns and giving citations a few days off and use the money on something else.