2006 Typhoon Season predictions

[Calasanjy]

Owing from the topic regarding predictions for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, what does everyone think the typhoon season will be like? It's started on a slow note, but I personally think it will rev up to produce near normal activity. Here are my predictions for individual storms:

Thus far:

TS 01W (Noname) - 35 KTS - March - "Fish" storm
STY 02W (Chanchu) - 135 KTS - May - China landfall
TS 03W (Jelawat) - 45 KTS - June - China landfall

Future:

TY 04W (Ewiniar) - 115 KTS - June/July - Brush with Japan after raging in open waters of Pacific
TS 05W (Bilis) - 55 KTS - July - SCS formation, Taiwan landfall, then rapidly northeast into North Pacific
TY 06W (Kaemi) - 90 KTS - July - Forms just east of Philippines, heads NW to brush Luzon, then out to sea in the North Pacific
TD 07W (Noname) - 30 KTS - July - Briefly develops east of Guam, then fizzles over open water
TY 08W (Prapiroon) - 105 KTS - July/August - Formation within Micronesian island group, WNW then NW, brush with Japan as moderate TS
TY 09W (Maria) - 70 KTS - July/August - Forms in Philippine Sea, coexists with Prapiroon, drenches central Philippines as moderate TS, then slams Vietnam as 70KT typhoon
TS 10W (Saomai) - 55 KTS - August - Forms in northern Philippine Sea, moves NE out to sea as a fish storm
STY 11W (Bopha) 150 KTS - August - Forms east of Guam, moves west into Guam as 80 KT typhoon, continues west to become second Super Typhoon of year, maxes out at 150 KTS before weakening moderately and smashing Taiwan and mainland China at 120 KTS and 95 KTS respectively, disastrous, retired from list at next WMO convention
TS 12W (Wukong) - 45 KTS - August - Forms directly behind Bopha but gets interrupted by outer circulation of the larger storm and is eventually absorbed into Bopha
TS 13W (Noname) - 40 KTS - August - Not recognized by JMA, forms in South China Sea just off Chinese coast, drenches Hainan island
STY 14W (Sonamu) - 135 KTS - August - forms in Philippine Sea approx. 500 NM east of Mindanao, stationary for a day or two while gradually strengthening, then begins to move NNW toward Korean peninsula. Briefly becomes the third Super Typhoon of the year with 135 KT winds. Strikes Japan as 75 KT typhoon, causing moderate damage.
TS 15W (Yagi) - 60 KTS - September - forms near Guam, moves almost directly north, almost acquiring typhoon strength before disappearing into North Pacific
TY 16W (Shanshan) - 120 KTS - September - forms shortly after Yagi but attains TS intensity first while located approx. 1000 NM SE of Japan, moves almost due west toward Okinawa while strengthening into a formidable storm, strikes Okinawa at 105 KTS, then hits Korean Peninsula at 80 KT intensity, destructive, retired by Korea's request at next WMO committee meeting
TY (originally hurricane) 01C (Ioke) – 110 KTS – September – moves into eastern NWPac region from Central Pacific. Meanders around for several days but never threatens land.
TY 17W (Xangsane) - 85 KTS - September - forms in Philippine Sea approx. 700 NM east of Luzon, moves directly out to sea as "fish" typhoon
STY 18W (Bebinca) - 145 KTS - September/October - forms within Micronesian island cluster approx. 1500 NM east of Philippines, moves WNW while deepening rapidly to become the fourth Super Typhoon of 2006. Weakens to 125 KTS before slamming Luzon, then turns more toward the north. Brushes Japan as a 60 KT tropical storm before exiting rapidly into the North Pacific Ocean.
TY 19W (Rumbia) – 115 KTS – October – coexists with Bebinca, forms in the wake of Bebinca in the Micronesian island cluster, but moves in a more northwesterly direction. Develops into a 115 KT typhoon over open waters. Briefly threatens Japan before recurving into the North Pacific Ocean.
TS 20W (Soulik) – 50 KTS – October – forms off the northeastern Luzon coast, moves toward Taiwan, hitting the island at its maximum intensity. Some flooding and mudslides result. Storm disintegrates over the island.
TS 21W (Cimaron) – 45 KTS – October – coexists with Soulik, forms near Guam, triggering inclement weather over that island for several days. However, the storm never strengthens beyond 45 KTS as it dissipates to the west of Guam.
STY 22W (Chebi) – 140 KTS – November – This intense late-season storm will be the fifth and final Super Typhoon of the season. It will form between Hawaii and Guam and head toward the west. Guam and Rota bear the brunt of Chebi while winds are sustained at 115 KTS. It then reaches maximum intensity and begins to turn to the WNW and then the NW. It then recurves into the Northern Pacific without further threat to land.
TD 23W (Noname) – 30 KTS – November – forms just east of the Philippines and spreads heavy rain over the central islands. It dissipates before it can reach the South China Sea, and never regains strength.
TY 24W (Durian) – 80 KTS – December – The grand finale of the 2006 season will be Typhoon Durian. It will form to the east of Luzon in the Philippine Sea and venture northwestward. Durian will inundate China at its maximum intensity and trigger devastating flooding. Despite the destruction and thorough deliberation, the name will not be retired at the next WMO Committee meeting.

That’s my forecast for the remainder of the 2006 typhoon season. I had a hunch that Bopha would be bad this year before the season started, and I think that Sonamu, Shanshan, and Bebinca will be the other big three to reckon with. If anyone else wants to contribute their predictions, feel free to follow suit.

[Calasanjy]

Alright, I'm sort of surprised that this topic didn't garner more interest, seeing how the speculation on the Atlantic hurricane season covered like seven pages. I'd just like to post again to keep this topic in the spotlight, on the first page of the Talkin' Tropics section, for anyone who is interested in typhoons to reply if they wish to make their own predictions.

[Stratusxpeye]

Not too sure about anyone else but I really don't know anything about other areas of the world. I don't know anything about typhoons couldnt tell you where half the places are either. Not to say it's not an interesting read though. Thanks for the outlook I think I'll pay a little more attention this year add to my knowledge.

[wxmann_91]

Nice predictions, look like your Ewiniar one might come true.

[Aslkahuna]

Well, having spent enough time in Typhoon Alley to know that it's risky making forecasts like that, I would add one comment. December storms into China are an extreme rarity. They will hit the Philippines on occasion but the average recurvature latitude varies from 18N in early December to 15 N in late December. They can be brutal storms (as the US Navy found out in 1944) but they most often recurve out before hitting the mainland or will track across the southern Visayas and either cross lower Vietnam into Thailand or pass south of Vietnam and cross Malaysia where they may regenerate in the Bay of Bengal. The major factors governing late season storms are the emergence of the southern Jet stream branch which swings around the Himalayas and heads NE across southern China plus the NE monsoon which establishes in the SCS in late October or early November and which no typhoon survive an encounter with. The NE Monsoon gets over Luzon in November into December and through all of the Philppines except Mindanao by the end of the year.

Steve