This area near the Bahamas is impressive

[bigmoney755]

There are no significant waves in the tropics now - at least nothing with even a remote chance of developing in the next 2-3 days.

Then why are you spending your time in the tropical forum on July 4?

[Rainband]

There are no significant waves in the tropics now - at least nothing with even a remote chance of developing in the next 2-3 days.

Then why are you spending your time in the tropical forum on July 4?

To help explain whats going on so people don't get concerned over nothing

[bigmoney755]

There are no significant waves in the tropics now - at least nothing with even a remote chance of developing in the next 2-3 days.

Then why are you spending your time in the tropical forum on July 4?

To help explain whats going on so people don't get concerned over nothing

thanks but I was asking wxman57

[SouthFloridawx]

I know this graphic can be off by 20kts as pointed out here on the board before but, it looks like there is decreasing shear in the bahamas according the Shear Tendency map.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[ronjon]

The spin you all see is an upper low causing thunderstorms around to pop up. There no signs of surface circulation and pressures are high.

That is correct. Absolutely no "spin" anywhere near the surface, just high pressure.

Pressures down some over last 24hr period, is that a result of surface trough NCH mentioned earlier.

Pressures are dropping because another front/trof is approaching the eastern U.S. and Bermuda High is retreating a bit to the east. The front is in western Indiana/TN/KY now heading east.

Thanks

Actually if pressures are falling due to the trof/front why are they higher in north florida (1-2 mbs higher). If the axis of Bermuda High was being shoved south due to the front, why wouldn't pressures be rising across south florida? I agree 57 that this is an ULL - sea level pressures are pretty high and there isn't a west wind to be found that would signify a closed low at the surface, however weak it would be.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This area should be watched nontheless. Even if its just an area of high pressure it should be a rainmaker for FL.

[SouthFloridawx]

I know this graphic can be off by 20kts as pointed out here on the board before but, it looks like there is decreasing shear in the bahamas according the Shear Tendency map.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

And also some vorticity in the 850mb region.

[Rainband]

There are no significant waves in the tropics now - at least nothing with even a remote chance of developing in the next 2-3 days.

Then why are you spending your time in the tropical forum on July 4?

To help explain whats going on so people don't get concerned over nothing

thanks but I was asking wxman57

I know

[Stormcenter]

How many storms did we see generate into TC's in this area last year?

So far I think 4.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think that if this area lingers around and does not get picked up by the trough digging down the eastern US... it is going to be a feature that we'll have to watch. From what I have seen from the models indicates that this area will be picked up by the trough and scooted out to the northeast into the atlantic.

IMO if this area does not get pushed out, there is low windshear, and the convection associated with the trough continues... then it is going to have to be something that we are going to watch.

[no advance]

If it hangs around awhile it will have a chance. I would be surprised if it moves west like forecast.

[Starburst]

Joe Bastardi 4th of July Outlook states this is an area of interest but NO imminent development is expected. This area will be interacting with an east coast trof split next several days, which means it is just that an area of interest for the time being and the next several days.

[SouthFloridawx]

Question for you guys?

Is the rotation on radar the activity of the upper level low?

Looking at the surface plots there are no winds that would indicate that there is a surface circulation.

There is one plot showing that there are winds moving towards the north but, I would think that this is merely just a boundary from a near by thunderdstorm.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think wxman or anyone else is saying that it should not be watched, even the NHC will be watching it. But, right now it is nothing but an ULL progged to move westward over Florida beore getting caught up in the CONUS trough and driven northward. Things could change if it develops a central concentration of deep convection, remains over the ocean for extended time and shear continues to slacken. Right now two of those parameters are being met, but it will take at least all three with time to have any chance of developing a closed surface low.

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TBWAFDTBW&version=0

Thanks for posting that rainband.

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TBWAFDTBW&version=0

Thanks for posting that rainband.

Your Welcome

[Stormcenter]

Joe Bastardi 4th of July Outlook states this is an area of interest but [b]NO imminent development is expected[/b]. This area will be interacting with an east coast trof split next several days, which means it is just that an area of interest for the time being and the next several days.

Then that means we need to watch it!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

yep that is the location of the ULL according to the vorticity in the 500mb levels. I guess this is a Mid to Upper level low.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor2.html

[wxman57]

There are no significant waves in the tropics now - at least nothing with even a remote chance of developing in the next 2-3 days.

Then why are you spending your time in the tropical forum on July 4?

I was going to head out on my mountain bike but it was raining at the time. Cleared out now. We're biking down to Miller Outdoor Theater this evening for the symphony & fireworks show. It's a lot easier to get in/out on a bike than in a car.