SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic Thread #4
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SouthFloridawx
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whereverwx
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Aquawind
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Overall it's pretty warm, but the MDR isn't to freaky hot..
Most of the warm anomalies near Canada and the NE are in waters that are WAYYY to cold for true tropical development or even to sustain a warm core system.. The Waters along the NE around New York are still very cold, but come Prime Time no doubt a system will have more energy to work with even if it transitioning to subtropical.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif
Most of the warm anomalies near Canada and the NE are in waters that are WAYYY to cold for true tropical development or even to sustain a warm core system.. The Waters along the NE around New York are still very cold, but come Prime Time no doubt a system will have more energy to work with even if it transitioning to subtropical.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif
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cycloneye
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windycity wrote:WOW, CHECK OUT THE LOOP CURRENT AND THE ENTIRE GOM BASIN! wATCH OUT ONCE SHEAR LESSENS!
Gulf of Mexico
Here it is.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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no advance
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SouthFloridawx
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cycloneye wrote:windycity wrote:WOW, CHECK OUT THE LOOP CURRENT AND THE ENTIRE GOM BASIN! wATCH OUT ONCE SHEAR LESSENS!
Gulf of Mexico
Here it is.
Thanks for the graphic... I forgot about that site. It appears there are a couple of areas there where we would have to worry about rapid intesification if there was low shear and a storm moved through those swaths of very warm waters.
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The warm SSTs at high latitudes are interesting... but I'm not sure they mean anything. It does seem like there is a mild correlation with active seasons... other really warm years up in the Canadian maritimes in June from 40n-60n between 40w-70w include 2005, 1998, 1989, 1979, 1960, and 1951-55... most of those were pretty active with a fair number of landfalls in the US (if it might mean anything).
More interesting to me is the very persistent Atlantic ridge... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... 00_30d.gif
That ridge is much stronger than average and hasn't allowed the deep tropical Atlantic to warm up much at all. Granted the anomalies are still about 1 standard deviation above average with all the trades.. and if they ever cease I bet things would warm in a hurry (aka 2004).
Despite the strong trades.. the 30 day shear:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... _30d.shtml
The zero line is averaging about 20n...pointing to African waves starting to develop as soon as some instability criteria is met (and less of the big dryness on the water vapor) and if the ridge backs off some the low-level environment will likely become more cyclonic and less dry/stable air will be advected in from the ne atlantic.
More interesting to me is the very persistent Atlantic ridge... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... 00_30d.gif
That ridge is much stronger than average and hasn't allowed the deep tropical Atlantic to warm up much at all. Granted the anomalies are still about 1 standard deviation above average with all the trades.. and if they ever cease I bet things would warm in a hurry (aka 2004).
Despite the strong trades.. the 30 day shear:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... _30d.shtml
The zero line is averaging about 20n...pointing to African waves starting to develop as soon as some instability criteria is met (and less of the big dryness on the water vapor) and if the ridge backs off some the low-level environment will likely become more cyclonic and less dry/stable air will be advected in from the ne atlantic.
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Hurricaneman
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skysummit
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...and KABOOM goes the Gulf! LOL SSTs are only 1 part of cyclone formation, but it looks like to me the fuel is there, and there's plenty of it. If we don't get a few weaker systems in the gulf to churn that water up a bit before the big party starts next month, the gulf coast could be in LOTS of danger.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Very warm ssts in the Caribbean and GOM...shear may tear apart systems
early this season, but that will allow ssts to continue rising....leaving the
conditions conducive for intense storms during August-September. This
idea was mentioned by many members during the past week. If the
ssts continue to rise, very intense storms are likely later this season
once the shear lessens.
early this season, but that will allow ssts to continue rising....leaving the
conditions conducive for intense storms during August-September. This
idea was mentioned by many members during the past week. If the
ssts continue to rise, very intense storms are likely later this season
once the shear lessens.
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skysummit
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Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Very warm ssts in the Caribbean and GOM...shear may tear apart systems
early this season, but that will allow ssts to continue rising....leaving the
conditions conducive for intense storms during August-September. This
idea was mentioned by many members during the past week. If the
ssts continue to rise, very intense storms are likely later this season
once the shear lessens.
I highly agree...and the shear will lessen. It's only a matter of time. I'm afraid we'll be seeing a few monsters that are comparible to last year's.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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HurricaneHunter914
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Wow, the MJO is favorable, the dry air is diminishing, shear is starting ot relax, and now the water is HOT! Man if only this was August, any TD would have become a major in one second.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Aquawind
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Definately cooler than last year.. Lotsa cool pockets..Don't worry Freaks there is plenty of heat out there for action..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif
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Aquawind wrote:Definately cooler than last year.. Lotsa cool pockets..Don't worry Freaks there is plenty of heat out there for action..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif
There's some cool pockets where hurricanes don't tend to form, go, and explode. There are a few near Africa making the CV season less crazy then 2004 possibly. However, I just think they will bomb once they get closer to land.
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P.K.
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CURRENT STATUS as at 12th July 2006
Next update expected by 26th July 2006 (two weeks after this update).
| Summary | In Brief | Details |
Summary: A persistence of neutral ENSO conditions
The overall ENSO status remains neutral. Generally weak trends have been observed in the main Pacific climate indicators during the past few weeks, and the potential for an El Niño event to develop this year is still relatively low.
The main concern remains the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is hovering around the −10 mark, indicating a general weakness in the Pacific Walker Circulation. There has also been some weakening in the Trade Winds in the last week, so this situation will be monitored closely for any sustained trends. However, ocean temperatures are only marginally above average, both on and below the surface, so there is only a slight risk that the Pacific will warm to levels high enough for an El Niño event to develop.
Most of the ENSO prediction models surveyed at the end of June showed a continuation of neutral conditions, although on the warm side of normal. Some updated model runs since then, indicate an increased likelihood of the Pacific warming to El Niño levels. However, a sustained warming beginning in July or August would be unusual, given that ENSO events typically begin to evolve between March and June.
Next update expected by 26th July 2006 (two weeks after this update).
| Summary | In Brief | Details |
Summary: A persistence of neutral ENSO conditions
The overall ENSO status remains neutral. Generally weak trends have been observed in the main Pacific climate indicators during the past few weeks, and the potential for an El Niño event to develop this year is still relatively low.
The main concern remains the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is hovering around the −10 mark, indicating a general weakness in the Pacific Walker Circulation. There has also been some weakening in the Trade Winds in the last week, so this situation will be monitored closely for any sustained trends. However, ocean temperatures are only marginally above average, both on and below the surface, so there is only a slight risk that the Pacific will warm to levels high enough for an El Niño event to develop.
Most of the ENSO prediction models surveyed at the end of June showed a continuation of neutral conditions, although on the warm side of normal. Some updated model runs since then, indicate an increased likelihood of the Pacific warming to El Niño levels. However, a sustained warming beginning in July or August would be unusual, given that ENSO events typically begin to evolve between March and June.
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Got a question:
Is there any source of data for water temperature at various depths below the surface?
GOM surface temperatures are obviously not too much higher than normal at the moment, but there is a limit as to how high surface temperature will get, due to issues like currents, night time cooling, etc. Example: The Persian Gulf SST's do not get much higher than the GOM despite higher air temperatures.
But, all of that extra energy is hitting the gulf, and should be going somewhere. It would be interesting to know if the sublayer a few feet down is heating up, thus storing up energy at a higher rate than normal.
Is there any source of data for water temperature at various depths below the surface?
GOM surface temperatures are obviously not too much higher than normal at the moment, but there is a limit as to how high surface temperature will get, due to issues like currents, night time cooling, etc. Example: The Persian Gulf SST's do not get much higher than the GOM despite higher air temperatures.
But, all of that extra energy is hitting the gulf, and should be going somewhere. It would be interesting to know if the sublayer a few feet down is heating up, thus storing up energy at a higher rate than normal.
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