NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

whereverwx · #81 Postby **whereverwx** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 11:22 am

Very impressive... West Pacific typhoons are very fascinating.

Cyclenall · #82 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:07 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Wow, I missed this Typhoon! that is one nice looking typhoon so far! A pin-hole eye is present with Wilma being copied.

This should become a Super Typhoon soon.

So far this prediction I made is holding up good. It's close now to Super Typhoon Strength. However, if this is not a Super Typhoon already, then what is? It has everything as far as I can tell. The very cold cloud tops are now there so what's left?

This is a very powerful storm and the eye is much better looking now. If it continues this strengthening just a bit longer it will officially become a Super Typhoon.

wxmann_91 wrote:The classic signature of a supertyphoon, which are -80 degree C or colder cloud tops, are not there. Also note the strong belt of shear just to the north of the system.

Now it's there. So far, I see no signs of shear anywhere. What are your thoughts on this system now?

#83 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:19 pm

calamity wrote:Very impressive... West Pacific typhoons are very fascinating.

It looks like it's starting to be affected by shear on it's northern side.

HurricaneHunter914 · #84 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:20 pm

Definitly, though nontheless it still is a pretty good looking storm.

#85 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:21 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Definitly, though nontheless it still is a pretty good looking storm.

I agree it is a very impressive storm.

#86 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 1:01 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
This is a very powerful storm and the eye is much better looking now. If it continues this strengthening just a bit longer it will officially become a Super Typhoon.

Well it is not actually possible to officially become a supertyphoon but yes this is a very powerful storm. http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/wnp/acronyms.html

Cyclenall · #87 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:02 pm

P.K. wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
This is a very powerful storm and the eye is much better looking now. If it continues this strengthening just a bit longer it will officially become a Super Typhoon.

Well it is not actually possible to officially become a supertyphoon but yes this is a very powerful storm. http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/wnp/acronyms.html

What do you mean it's not possible? Of course it's possible. Also, what is that link for anyways?

#88 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:09 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
What do you mean it's not possible? Of course it's possible. Also, what is that link for anyways?

It could reach ST status based on the JTWC forecast, nevertheless, the JTWC is not the official source but the JMA. The JMA uses 10-min, which means, for example, a 114 knots 1-min system is a 100 knots 10-min system. Therefore, for a system to reach ST status under the JMA regulations, it will have to be a very intense system.

130 knots 1-min = 148.2 knots 10-min

That's the minimum requirement for a system to reach ST status.

Cyclenall · #89 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:17 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
What do you mean it's not possible? Of course it's possible. Also, what is that link for anyways?

It could reach ST status based on the JTWC forecast, nevertheless, the JTWC is not the official source but the JMA. The JMA uses 10-min, which means, for example, a 114 knots 1-min system is a 100 knots 10-min system. Therefore, for a system to reach ST status under the JMA regulations, it will have to be a very intense system.

130 knots 1-min = 148.2 knots 10-min

That's the minimum requirement for a system to reach ST status.

Yeah, I only go by the JTWC because I don't like the JMA for these. Well, it's a shame that the JMA is the official source since I believe they aren't correct for most systems. The 10-min thing I dislike a bit as well. But it's possible for this system to totally go wild and officially become a ST by the JMA if it rapidly deepens some more. That's why I said it's possible since anything is possible.

#90 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:21 pm

I agree, sometimes the official source doesn't mean it's the right source. :uarrow:

#91 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:24 pm

NRL:
125kts - 916mb

DVORAK:
04/1433 UTC 17.1N 131.7E T6.5/6.5 EWINIAR -- West Pacific Ocean

#92 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:29 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Also, what is that link for anyways?

It is for the World Meteorological Organisation [WMO] page on tropical cyclones. It basically contains all the offical classifications, names, advisories etc. It is an excellent page to have bookmarked.

The ten minute average (At a height of ten metres) is just the global standard used by the majority of countries. What wind average does Environment Canada use? I've had a look but can't find if it is a ten minute or one minute value.

whereverwx · #93 Postby **whereverwx** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:29 pm

Yep, it might have peaked.

#94 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:32 pm

Down to 925hPa now.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 17.4N 131.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 19.6N 129.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 061800UTC 21.6N 129.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 071800UTC 24.3N 129.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #95 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:52 pm

It looks like it peaked around 130 knots base on my est. Maybe 135 those cold cloud tops where darn close to cat5.

JamesFromMaine2 · #96 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 3:03 pm

Almost looked like Wilma with the thick ring of -80+ cloud tops. However Wilma had the ring around the whole eye not just part of the eye like this one has.

#97 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 4:47 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 17.4N 131.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 19.6N 129.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 061800UTC 21.6N 129.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 071800UTC 24.3N 129.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT

CHRISTY · #98 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 4:59 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 921.6mb/124.6kt

Cyclenall · #99 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 6:22 pm

On Unisys, this is now a Super Typhoon like I predicted. It looks different right now for some reason. The eye looks like Wilma's but only a bit bigger. All I know is it's not weakening right now.

Oh and I don't think it has peaked yet.

#100 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Jul 04, 2006 6:49 pm

Latest model guidance:

FXPQ20 RJTD 041800
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME T 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
PSTN 041800UTC 17.4N 131.5E
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 95KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 17.9N 131.0E -005HPA +005KT
T=12 18.5N 130.4E -019HPA +016KT
T=18 18.8N 129.8E -023HPA +020KT
T=24 18.8N 129.2E -026HPA +019KT
T=30 18.9N 129.0E -022HPA +016KT
T=36 19.1N 129.0E -024HPA +019KT
T=42 19.5N 129.0E -022HPA +018KT
T=48 19.9N 128.9E -020HPA +018KT
T=54 20.4N 128.7E -019HPA +017KT
T=60 21.0N 128.6E -023HPA +018KT
T=66 21.8N 128.5E -019HPA +011KT
T=72 22.8N 128.1E -024HPA +014KT
T=78 23.8N 127.8E -027HPA +017KT
T=84 24.9N 127.5E -031HPA +020KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

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