This area near the Bahamas is impressive

[Dean4Storms]

Convection does seem to be increasing.

[Stormcenter]

Convection does seem to be increasing.

Yep it does but it's "only" an upper low. Lets see what the NHC says in their next update.

[wxman57]

Convection does seem to be increasing.

Convection remains very meager and widely-scattered. In order for a low center at the surface to form, there will have to be a single "blob" of convection that persists for about 24 hours. Otherwise, the scattered convection won't lead to any low formation at the surface. There just isn't anything to focus the convection, so development chances remain extremely low - 1-2% at best.

Sun's out now, time to head out on the bike for a quick 25 miles before this evening's 20 mile ride to see fireworks and picnic.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a surface low is not out of the question according to the NWS Miami office, although not likely.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 041840
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW JUST NW OF ANDROS ISLAND IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...REACHING THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL OVERNIGHT...AS
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. NAM SHOWS A SURFACE LOW FORMING JUST
NORTHEAST OF GRAND BAHAMA THEN MOVING WEST ONSHORE THE EAST CENTRAL
FL COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF THIS CLOSED FEATURE
AT PRESENT...AND THE ECMWF IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE TROUGH SCENARIO IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

TOUGH TIME GETTING ANY CONVECTION GOING THIS AFTERNOON AS OF THIS
WRITING. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO TWO FACTORS...ONE BEING SUBSIDENCE
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LOW...THE OTHER BEING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER NE
WIND FLOW...NOT YET ALLOWING THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO FORM. WRF
STILL SHOWS ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATE. WILL GO 30 POPS GULF COAST SINCE STILL A SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE COULD ALLOW FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA TO FORM THERE...BUT WILL
DROP POPS TO ISOLATED REST OF AREA.

[Taffy]

Why isn't it moving? It seems to be sitting in the same spot now, for a week.

[rockyman]

Low level vorticity continues to increase (now yellow on the map, was green):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

[rockyman]

This seems to be an extremely "tight" upper/mid level low...Does anyone know if that increases or decreases the chance of the low working down to the surface?

[Cookiely]

Who's right?
000
FXUS62 KTBW 041744
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THU)...GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ALL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW...OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING EARLY WED. THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE KEYS AND THE STRAITS
LATE WED AND OUT OUT THE GULF THU WHERE IT WEAKENS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
BUILD SW TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THERE IS LESS MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS...EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MOVE A
WEAKENING WAVE OVER FL AND UP INTO THE NE GULF BY THE END OF WED.
THE NAM DEEPENS THE WAVE INTO A LOW LATER TONIGHT AND MOVES IT UP
EASTERN FL TO THE GA/SC COASTAL WATERS EARLY THU. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE
HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SOME DURING WED BUT THEN BUILDS BACK WEST SOME-
WHERE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTH FL. THE GFS FAVORS CENTRAL WHILE THE
OTHER 3 PICK SOUTH FL. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTION OF THE WAVE. NAM HAS BEEN HANDLING MOISTURE SLIGHTLY BETTER
THAN THE GFS BUT HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE.

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-TUE)...NOT MUCH CHANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TROF DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. INTO SAT WHILE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SAGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SINKS S. FRONT PULLS INTO THE W ATLANTIC AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SERIES OF VORT MAXES TO ROTATE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. HAVE KEPT HIGH
END SCT POPS ATTM...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER AS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.

SUN-TUE...UPPER TROF LIFTS N AS WEAK UPPER-SFC RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS TO CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO
DIURNAL POPS.

TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

[CHRISTY]

Clouds and rain are just of shore....near south east florida.

[CHRISTY]

Guys on this loop u can clearly make out the spin right of southeast florida....will it develope convection in the coming hours?looks not to be moving much at the moment.

here the link to the loop....
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Carribbean

[HurricaneHunter914]

Shear seems to be low in that area and not much dry air in the way aswell. But this is still just an area of high pressure so development will be difficult.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yup... there is a spin, but it is in the mid/upper levels. You can see the low level clouds moving E to W south of the ULL... so no surface low.

[CHRISTY]

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL
AS THE ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH IN THIS AREA...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CHRISTY]

Guys check this out....http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Mexico.gif

[rockyman]

Thanks, Christy!

According to that map, we now have a surface low (1017mb) over the far western Bahamas...with a trough extending SW to NE....even though absolute pressure is high, it is relative pressure that matters.

[mvtrucking]

Thanks, Christy!

According to that map, we now have a surface low (1017mb) over the far western Bahamas...with a trough extending SW to NE....even though absolute pressure is high, it is relative pressure that matters.

I was looking at the buoy's all around that area and most seem to have had pressure falling all afternoon.(Not sure if it is normal or not?) Some have fallen from the 1018mb as low as 1014mb today.(And continue to fall)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

[hiflyer]

Just spent a bit at work and staring at live radar...fairly week but still interesting to look at. Amount of active rain has dropped significantly over the past 8 hrs with the sun now getting low in the sky turning off any more heating. However as it has always been folklore that loud explosions trigger rain and this is the 4th I would expect increase storms in the vicinity of any m80's or the typical automatic weapon fire into the air that we have down here in SoFla.

[rockyman]

The SE coast of Florida has pretty much fallen below 30.00 inches this evening (and before anyone says it, this is not just "diurnal" because pressures were all close to 30.10 last night at this same time)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

[Weatherfreak000]

Nothing is gonna get started until deep convection persists.