This area near the Bahamas is impressive

[wxman57]

The SE coast of Florida has pretty much fallen below 30.00 inches this evening (and before anyone says it, this is not just "diurnal" because pressures were all close to 30.10 last night at this same time)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

If you look at the big picture, pressures are falling from the Great Lakes through the Tennessee Valley to south Florida in advance of a cold front. And the highest pressure is over south Florida and the Bahamas.

[rockyman]

Yes, pressures may be higher over south Florida and the Bahamas than the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, but apparently there is an area of lower pressure off the southeast Florida coast (according to Christy's map)....I figured my quote in parentheses would coax you away from Fourth of July fun

[wxman57]

Yes, pressures may be higher over south Florida and the Bahamas than the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, but apparently there is an area of lower pressure off the southeast Florida coast (according to Christy's map)....I figured my quote in parentheses would coax you away from Fourth of July fun

Nope, you won't coax me away. We have the bikes packed up with our picnic. The symphony starts playing at Miller Outdoor Theater at 8:30 and the fireworks are at 10. It's only a 10 mile bike ride down the bike trail to the park, so we'll leave around 7:30-7:45.

Have a safe 4th of July evening, everyone!

[rockyman]

Our town (Dauphin Island) canceled this year's fireworks display (something about not wanting to spend money on fireworks when half of the Island is underwater)...We're hoping to see the display from the USS Alabama on Mobile Bay...If not, I'm sure we'll have some illegal activity on the beach here

[Derek Ortt]

the only stuff near Florida tonight is the fireworks... which I am about to go and watch

[tailgater]

Yes, pressures may be higher over south Florida and the Bahamas than the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, but apparently there is an area of lower pressure off the southeast Florida coast (according to Christy's map)....I figured my quote in parentheses would coax you away from Fourth of July fun

The largest pressure drops I could find were in SW Fla. up to 5mb while, N Fla. was in the 3mb range not a huge difference.

Nothing else to watch. Tv bites this time of year for me. NO SPORTS

[boca]

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/ ... llite.html

ULL slowing inching westward towards SE Florida. I was right about rain being a nonissue for S Florida today.

[rainydaze]

What about Wednesday....we gonna get any rain from this bahama's stuff in SoFLa?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Barely any rain with it. The rain chances for the next few days will probably go down.

[The Hurricaner]

What? lol tomorow and the next day are gonna be more up than down, after that i dont know.

[Jim Cantore]

I think it's an ULL, but I've seen some obvious spin to it, give it a few days over warm water, remember Hurricane Danny in 1997 formed from a stalled cold front.

[Thunder44]

465
ABNT20 KNHC 050907
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA... AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...AS WELL
AS THE ADJACENT WATERS... ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME... THEY MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[caneman]

pressure down to 29.94 at key west buoy. Radar showing some turning going on. Lets see if convection builds.

[caneman]

you can see where an LLC is trying to take hold. Right between Fl and Cuba not much convection over it but you can see convection arced around it. you would have expected the convection over Cuba to have dissapated overnight but it didn't. Lets see if this becomes more concentrated

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 050652
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
252 AM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SHORT TERM (TDY - FRI)...WATER VAPOR AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS YESTERDAY HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND IS NOW JUST OFFSHORE SOUTH
FLORIDA. MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS UPPER-LOW PRETTY WELL...AND EXPECT
SYSTEM TO TURN MORE WESTWARD TODAY...MOVING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE STATE. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE DRY...SUBSIDING AIR TO
OUR WEST AND BRING A LOT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE WESTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THIS COULD DELAY THE
MOISTURE RETURN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A POP GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST ZONES AND LOWER POPS ALONG THE NATURE
COAST.

SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT FORM INSIDE
THE DRIER AIR...ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. I AM NOT CONCERNED
ABOUT HAIL SINCE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE VERY WARM...BETWEEN -4
AND -6 AT 500 MB...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AS
CORES COLLAPSE. WILL INDICATE 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE HWO AGAIN THIS MORNING.

SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY WITH GULF BREEZES
MOVING WELL INLAND DURING THE DAY. STEERING FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
SO EXPECT STORM MOTION TO BE GOVERNED MAINLY BY GULF BREEZE MOVING
INLAND AT FIRST...THEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE DAY. POPS
WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE COAST WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE TAKES OVER IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGHER POPS INLAND WHERE ALL THE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL OCCUR.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE DATA
FIELDS...SUCH AS WIND AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APPEAR TO GET A BIT
WRINKLED AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND IGNITES
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF STREAM. I EXPECT THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ACTUALLY REMAIN A BIT NORTH OF WHERE THE 00Z GFS
SUGGESTS. GOING TO LEAVE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND SHOW
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE INHERITED 50 PERCENT
POPS IN EVERYWHERE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES...BUT HIGHER POPS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY IF IT DOES INDEED PUSH SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRI NGT-TUE)...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD THE
RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...
THE COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
MAKES IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT NO MATTER WHAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP.

&&

[Noah]

Ok. I know ULL means upper level low. Can someone explain what an Upper level low is? Thanks. You guys are always so helpful!

[wxman57]

Satellite loops now show the cnvection over the Bahamas beginning to move northward as the cold front approaches the east U.S. Coast. GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, NAM, and UKMET move the disturbance off to the north to NNE over the next day or two up the cold front. It could form a low along the cold front along the Mid Atlantic Coast in a couple of days, but tropical development still seems unlikely.

[HURAKAN]

Ok. I know ULL means upper level low. Can someone explain what an Upper level low is? Thanks. You guys are always so helpful!

Enjoy the dictionary!!!

Upper Level Low
An area of cold air aloft (20,000 to 30,000 feet) that is rotating counter-clockwise. These sometimes steer hurricanes and less frequently, transform into a warm core low and work their way down to the surface to become a tropical cyclone.

[wxman57]

Ok. I know ULL means upper level low. Can someone explain what an Upper level low is? Thanks. You guys are always so helpful!

An upper-level low is just an area of low pressure located above the sufrace, perhaps tens of thousands of feet above the surface. Surface pressures below this upper low can be high, with no cyclonic rotation at all. All rotation is located well above the surface. Sometimes, an upper low can develop thunderstorms near its center. If these thunderstorms persist for a day or two, then inflow into the storms can generate low pressure down to the surface. That's how an upper-level low can become a tropical depression or storm.

[Noah]

Thanks Hurakan and WXman57!!