Tropical Low faces big problems ...

[Toni - 574]

Looks like I busted this time...the low is organizing rapidly.

Don't sweat it TWW. Before the season is up, I predict we'll all bust it 10-15 times. The handwriting on the wall for this blob is to just watch it over the next week. Super Early Morning Line would give a gut threat to DR/Haiti on Sunday and maybe Cuba-Keys by Tuesday or Wed. Needless to say, if it intensifies, there is a far greater liklihood of a fish spinner. But then again, we don't see CV storms in June, so the rules and future probabilities are being written before our eyes.

Steve

Steve, are you really serious? Do you really think that there is even a slight possibility that it could make it across?????

[Steve]

>>Steve, are you really serious? Do you really think that there is even a slight possibility that it could make it across?????

Absolutely. But it's less likely the further east it develops. If it just keeps rumbling along westerly and stays fairly weak, this is exactly the type of storm that could do it. You have a solid ridge in the SW atlantic, a flatter more zonal flow across the CONUS.

I'm not jumping ahead though. I called it the "Super Early Morning Line." The ECMWF shows a ripple in the area mentioned earlier, but that was the 00 run (last night 7:00pm my time). If they initialize(d) it as a TD or TS in the 00 runs tonight, it would be a lot more interesting if it still shows up on the model in the 5-7 day period in the Caribbean. The rest of my post was more key - something to watch. The precedent is being set now while the history is being written. No one knows what's going to happen, especially not me. But I'm paying attention.

Steve

[Steve]

Hey Toni,

FWIW:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 11648W.gif

Probably a wave (if that), but NHC sees the southerly track which I kind of figured on at first before switching to the northern islands.

Steev