Quick SST Update and July Thoughts

[MWatkins]

First of all, this little article showed up in the net edition of the local paper:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/features/he ... ws-science

The Carribean and the Keys, and this comes as no shock, are at their normal SST seasonal highs already here in the first week of July. Ignoring the GW link for this thread, and moving on, the Atlantic is still running an obnxious level above normal north of 40N:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

In fact there are not many places even hovering around normal in the Atlantic.

Whereas conditions in the EPAC are still very neutral at the surface:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/pac_anom.gif

Of course, we are now in July, and the window for a Nino to get in and shut down the 2006 season has more or less closed.

Trades are strong east to west in the Atlantic right now, which is one of the main reasons why July is an inactive month for the basin as a whole. I would not expect anything like last year, in terms of July development, happening this season.

In fact, this looks to be one of those dry Julys....I would not be shocked at all if we don't see anything go until we get to mid/late August much like the 1998/99 seasons and or 2004.

And with all of that warm water sitting off of the EC...I would be surprised if we do see a persistent 1995-to-2003-like trough remain into the heart of the season.

In fact the extended GFS has been advertising a gradual shift from the current 500MB EC trough to a flatter pattern in the 6 to 10 day period for several runs now, with the eventual falling of heights off of the west coast. If this does transpire, and we will see if it really means anything once this shift occurs in the model in t+72 instead of t+144, it still doesn't tell us much about August.

MW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree, there also looks to be quit the tutt over the central Atlatnic forming upper level lows then droping them southwestward. Which is enhancing a westly shear over the Caribbean,central Atlatnic. A trough is forecasted to stay in place over the east coast. This season in alot of ways has the warm SST's/TCHP that is needed for a super hurricane season(Not as much over the central Atlatnic)But the overall shear pattern for the caribbean, into the central Atlatnic. And into the caribbean appears to be alot like 2000,2002. The east coast trough appears to be alot like as you said 1995,2003.

Every season is different. So who knows. The wet Mjo should be here in a few weeks.

[gatorcane]

If the season stays slow through July it will only increase the chances of an active later season. My thought is that the Atlantic waters continue to warm through June and now into July with the lack of activity. In 2004 the activity sharply rose around July 27th and August - September were brutal.

The current pattern in place will not hold the whole season. The fact that it is here now is not good in my opinion because it only means that we probably won't have this setup at the heart of hurricane season (strong East coast trough and TUTT)....a more likely scenario is strong Bermuda High and lack of TUTT as the longwave pattern undergoes cycles.

I'm quite worried about this season that should really get going in about 3-4 weeks.

[Mike Doran]

Interesting how in the EPAC the GOC is very warm anomaly yet with all the activity in the EPAC ITCZ nothing developed and moved there to the GOC. Why?

Big strike days in the CONUS today and two days ago--and all that displacement current IMHO ran west to the West Pacific to power the storm there.

Coral dying are part of the living earth problem. This is where I will try to go tomorrow on the show. I have had discussions with retired biology professor Dr. Don Mikulecky for several years. Here's his page:

http://www.people.vcu.edu/~mikuleck/

and while I somewhat disagree he talks about defining life as closed to efficient cause. I think that the earth is 'alive' and it too has self regulation like life does. I ask the question of Don--is a hurricane alive? This becomes significantly important when it comes to the 'math' of prediction of tropical storms and at the same time gets to the 'why' of life, and of stewardship. Which brings us to coral reefs dying and what it may mean for storms to the region.

[Mike Doran]

Quote:

"In a bipartisan letter, 40 Senators urged President Bush to
support congressional efforts to reverse the threats posed by global
warming, adding that 'Leading U.S. scientists now warn that we must begin
reducing global warming pollution from today's levels within 10
years in order to avoid the worst effects of global warming.'"

http://www.seacoastonline.com/news/0703 ... e_7-3.html

Comment:

The mechanism is not CO2 as a green house gas but CO2 as a CONDUCTIVITY variable.

[Mike Doran]

Don Mikulecky is a retired professor of biology whom I have had a discussion with over the years. Here is his page:

http://www.people.vcu.edu/~mikuleck/

The discussion has been over abiogenis. I have an idea about it and I ask questions from the standpoint of climate and weather. I ask the question--whether a hurricane is 'alive'. The question is more difficult and legitimate than you may think.

Don talks about life as closed to efficient cause. I don't quite agree with that way of thinking about it, but taken to its conclusion, if the earth itself is life, than nothing the sun or the cosmic ray flux or other inputs to the earth system will cause a living earth to lose its efficient cause . . .

Anyway, the lines will blur . . . there are Schumann resonances, in the sky and in our brains.

http://www.nexusmagazine.com/articles/schumann.html

http://www.oulu.fi/~spaceweb/textbook/schumann.html

Why?