Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

[JenBayles]

Hey David! Yep, the Dome held all yesterday afternoon. Happens all the time. The Lakes on Eldridge are only a couple miles from our location - you got soaked and we got spritzed.

We got a pretty good soaking from this morning's round of rain, but it's already clearing out. Perhaps we'll get enough heating to challenge the Dome this afternoon.

[Yankeegirl]

Well it lightninged out here all night, woke up to sunny and clear skies! we are going to the zoo and the riverwalk today...They said we only have a 40% chance of rain today, so I am going to go with that... Went to the outlet stores yesterday in San Marcos... I felt like I died and went to heaven!! I have to go back to them maybe tomorrow to fnish the other half of them... Well you all take care in Houston, and dont float away!!!

[HouTXmetro]

Heavy Storms moving back into the southern portion of Greater Houston.

http://tinyurl.com/k5mxq






Link edited by CM (so we didn't have to scroll across the page)

[HouTXmetro]

Bands of rain are beggining to redevelop and move across the same areas. THis could get ugly if it continues.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have gotten 2 good storms so far today. One this morning dropped about ~1" of rain, and the one I am in now looks to be doing the same or worse. Lots of minor flooding in the area.

UPDATE: well this recent downpour continues and street flooding is everywhere. I would estimate 2" so far (in less than an hour).

[southerngale]

It's been raining a lot here this morning. When one storm passes, more are developing behind it. It's just light rain at the moment, but there's still plenty to the west heading in this direction.

I thought this little snippet from this morning's NWS discussion was interesting. Don't expect any sunny days anytime soon.

MODELS INDICATING MOISTURE LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...AND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR QUITE
SOME TIME.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
915 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1215 PM CDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AT 911 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS LINE ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR...
CHINA...BEAUMONT...CENTRAL GARDENS...NEDERLAND...PORT ARTHUR...
VIDOR...GROVES...PORT NECHES AND BRIDGE CITY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[jasons2k]

I have gotten 2 good storms so far today. One this morning dropped about ~1" of rain, and the one I am in now looks to be doing the same or worse. Lots of minor flooding in the area.

UPDATE: well this recent downpour continues and street flooding is everywhere. I would estimate 2" so far (in less than an hour).

Do you have a rain gauge? I'm showing radar estimated 3-hour rainfall totals of mostly .25"-.75" in N and NW Harris county, with a small sliver of 1.25" totals - but nothing close to 2-3".

So far these rainfall estimates have been matching my rain gauge to the tee.

[vbhoutex]

We've had 2 good bands of rains/storms go through so far this morning where I work near Memorial Park, but nothing nearing any more than an inch imo, if that much. Unfortunately can't access the digital I have at home for amounts there(about 8 miles WNW of the office in SB). Looks like another band moving in relatively soon from what I'm seeing out the window and on radar. Definitely going to be a wet day, at least till sometime in the afternoon.

Without any analysis, ie only from radar, it appears to me the ULL that has been in W TX is moving SE towards us here is SE TX. Can anyone confirm this?

[Johnny]

I'm here at my office here in Spring and the rain is just now letting up. The feeders roads are flooded but should go down pretty quick. I'd have to agree with EWG with the 2" mark. It was coming down very hard for a pretty good clip.

[Portastorm]

We've had 2 good bands of rains/storms go through so far this morning where I work near Memorial Park, but nothing nearing any more than an inch imo, if that much. Unfortunately can't access the digital I have at home for amounts there(about 8 miles WNW of the office in SB). Looks like another band moving in relatively soon from what I'm seeing out the window and on radar. Definitely going to be a wet day, at least till sometime in the afternoon.

Without any analysis, ie only from radar, it appears to me the ULL that has been in W TX is moving SE towards us here is SE TX. Can anyone confirm this?

Yup vb ... that is exactly what is happening, per NWS forecast discussions.

[vbhoutex]

We've had 2 good bands of rains/storms go through so far this morning where I work near Memorial Park, but nothing nearing any more than an inch imo, if that much. Unfortunately can't access the digital I have at home for amounts there(about 8 miles WNW of the office in SB). Looks like another band moving in relatively soon from what I'm seeing out the window and on radar. Definitely going to be a wet day, at least till sometime in the afternoon.

Without any analysis, ie only from radar, it appears to me the ULL that has been in W TX is moving SE towards us here is SE TX. Can anyone confirm this?

Yup vb ... that is exactly what is happening, per NWS forecast discussions.

Thanks, I've been in meetings all morning , so I haven't had time to look at much of anything except radar. If that is happening, maybe, of course depending on future course, we will get a dry out period here in SE TX in a day or so. Need to be optimistic!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have gotten 2 good storms so far today. One this morning dropped about ~1" of rain, and the one I am in now looks to be doing the same or worse. Lots of minor flooding in the area.

UPDATE: well this recent downpour continues and street flooding is everywhere. I would estimate 2" so far (in less than an hour).

Do you have a rain gauge? I'm showing radar estimated 3-hour rainfall totals of mostly .25"-.75" in N and NW Harris county, with a small sliver of 1.25" totals - but nothing close to 2-3".

So far these rainfall estimates have been matching my rain gauge to the tee.

I am estimating close to 2" (may be more) in less than an hour, because this is some of the worst flooding I have seen in my immediate area since I have lived here. A big (usually dry) grassy area turned into a river during the storm and the streets were all pretty flooded. Also, many pools in the area overflowed and flooded out many people's backyards. This kind of flooding does not occur from 0.25-0.75" rain totals.

[PTrackerLA]

VB, we'll take it over here! We still have a 12"+ deficit to make up.

[jasons2k]

I'm here at my office here in Spring and the rain is just now letting up. The feeders roads are flooded but should go down pretty quick. I'd have to agree with EWG with the 2" mark. It was coming down very hard for a pretty good clip.

That's very close to my house - I'll have to check my gauge when I get home. So far I'm showing about .75" along I-45 in The Woodlands area.

I'll have to say I've been shocked myself by the rainfall totals at times. We had a torrential downpour a few days ago and i just knew we had at least an inch from it, but I only had about .3" in the bucket.

VB: Yes the upper low is slowly moving this way and it has made the transformation into a warm-core system. Becasue of this, the concern now is that we may have core rains from the system develop tonight. I'm also concerned that it may stop moving SE later today/tonight and drop more south. This would put the low in a similiar position that Allison was on the night of the flood a few days after landfall.

[JenBayles]

And the Dome finally fails! Three rounds of storms since 5:00 a.m. and a good 3"+ so far. Looks like more developing to the west coming this way....

[southerngale]

Jason, why are you concerned that the upper low would stop moving SE later today/tonight and drop more south? I'm just asking because I've seen nothing to suggest this, but I've been pretty busy and haven't looked at much either. I was under the impression it was gonna move east to Louisiana, and then eventually back west by tomorrow or so, or something like that. I don't remember exactly what I read, and I gotta run now and can't check.

[Portastorm]

Judging from the water vapor pix over the last few hours, it looks like the center of the upper low is near College Station and is drifting south-southwest and NOT east ... I'll be real curious to read the afternoon discussions from NWS forecasters.

All of this though is not good for you folks in Houston as long as you remain on the east (wet) side of this upper low.

[jasons2k]

Jason, why are you concerned that the upper low would stop moving SE later today/tonight and drop more south? I'm just asking because I've seen nothing to suggest this, but I've been pretty busy and haven't looked at much either. I was under the impression it was gonna move east to Louisiana, and then eventually back west by tomorrow or so, or something like that. I don't remember exactly what I read, and I gotta run now and can't check.

Hey Kelly,

I got this from Jeff:

"Upper level low is forecast to drift SE today and be located nearly on top of HOU by this evening.....Upper low is forecast to drift S into the western Gulf and then SSW into NE Mexico by Friday"

And from the NWS offices across TX:

From HGX: "HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA."

From SAT: "MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DROPS TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN TEXAS."

Anyway, looking at the water vapor loop, to me it looks like it is moving almost due south. If it ends up just W/SW of us tonight and the core rains develop, that would put Houston and most of SE Texas aligned with the inflow right off the GOM once again. The position of the low would set-up a convergence zone, almost like an appendage, stretching to its east. The night that Allison really dumped on Houston was when the low was just to our SW and had this kind of setup.

That said - as it moves more S/SW towards Mexico in the next few days (if it does...), it should lessen the chance for rain as our flow will no longer be off the GOM.

[HouTXmetro]

For those interested in rainfall rates in your area, The Harris County Office of Emergency has a map link to how much rain a particular (ditch, creek, river, or Bayou) has received. It gives you the accumalted rain totals for as short as the last 15 minutes up to days. If you click on a particular gauge it will also tell you how hight the water is in that Bayou.

http://www.hcoem.org/default2.php

[vbhoutex]

Current radar indicates to me that the ULL is now situated between Houston and Brenham or maybe more precisely just to the SE of Brenham and NNW of Houston. If it makes the trip expected by Jeff we will either get the core rains(hoping it doesn't happen since it hasn't yet) and/or possibly a repeat of todays rains as the ULL then moves SW towards Mexico in a day or so. It appears that anyway you look at it we will get wetter. However, I am looking at some blue skies here off the West Loop, but not sure how long they will last.