This area near the Bahamas is impressive

[hial2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

I'll be looking foreward to that big blob that over Cuba, which is part of the ULL. Its going to bring alot of rain to FL.

Having just returned via plane from a trip to NC, I feel sorry for the 1/3
of Miami's residents i saw still have a "blue roof"..This rain is going to make their lives miserable!!
God bless the insurance companies! (sarcasm)

[wzrgirl1]

actually i love jeff masters and ive been a member of his website for 3 years .i just went threw his latest update and tryed to make my own quick summary.but yes iam thinkin the same thing he is right as far as what this system is going to do.it clearly is moving nw or wnw into florida then into the gulf of mexico and it will most likely get picked up my a strong trough of low pressure.

you do that a lot I noticed but I never said anything....it's ok to put what he wrote but just make sure you give him credit....it's only fair

[stormtruth]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

I'll be looking foreward to that big blob that over Cuba, which is part of the ULL. Its going to bring alot of rain to FL.

Having just returned via plane from a trip to NC, I feel sorry for the 1/3
of Miami's residents i saw still have a "blue roof"..This rain is going to make their lives miserable!!
God bless the insurance companies! (sarcasm)

Yes, they are wonderful (sarcasm) -- another one may be biting the dust. Florida Select might be heading out of business says
this article

[cycloneye]

Ok Folks,let's return to discuss about the system and not get into non important things about who gets credit for what.

[Dean4Storms]

Got a couple of buoys picking up westerly winds in the southern Keys.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SMKF1

[skysummit]

I don't know if that ULL will ever get into the Gulf. It's moving onto Florida as we speak, and by the direction it's going, it looks like it'll stay over Florida until the trough picks it up.

[SouthFloridawx]

Got a couple of buoys picking up westerly winds in the southern Keys.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SMKF1

Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.97 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.3 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.1 °F
5-day plot - Tide (above MLLW) Tide (above MLLW) (TIDE): 0.99 ft
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.2 °F


07 05 5:00 pm SSW 7 8 - - - - 29.98 -0.05 82.9 85.5 74.5 - - 0.95
07 05 4:00 pm SSW 5 6 - - - - 29.98 -0.05 83.1 85.3 74.7 - - 0.81
07 05 3:00 pm SSW 7 8 - - - - 29.98 -0.04 83.3 85.3 75.9 - - 0.65
07 05 2:00 pm WSW 3 4 - - - - 30.02 +0.00 81.5 85.3 74.8 - - 0.41
07 05 1:00 pm S 8 8 - - - - 30.03 +0.00 84.6 85.3 75.7 - - 0.22
07 05 12:00 pm S 6 7 - - - - 30.02 +0.00 84.2 85.1 75.7 - - 0.06
07 05 11:00 am SE 6 6 - - - - 30.02 +0.02 84.7 84.9 75.7 - - 0.03
07 05 10:00 am SSE 9 10 - - - - 30.03 +0.05 83.5 84.6 73.9 - - 0.20


Also

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
C-MAN station
MARS payload
25.59 N 80.10 W (25°35'25" N 80°05'48" W)

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 12 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
5-day plot - Salinity Salinity (SAL): 35.87

Previous observations MM DD TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts WVHT
ft DPD
sec APD
sec MWD PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
°F WTMP
°F DEWP
°F SAL VIS
mi TIDE
ft
07 05 5:00 pm SE 10 11 - - - - 29.99 -0.03 82.6 85.1 - 35.88 - -
07 05 4:00 pm S 8 10 - - - - 29.99 -0.05 84.9 84.7 - 35.87 - -
07 05 3:00 pm S 9 10 - - - - 30.00 -0.04 83.8 84.6 - 35.88 - -
07 05 2:00 pm SSW 9 10 - - - - 30.02 -0.02 83.1 84.6 - 35.88 - -
07 05 1:00 pm S 12 14 - - - - 30.05 +0.00 84.6 84.4 - 35.88 - -
07 05 12:00 pm S 5 5 - - - - 30.04 +0.02 83.7 84.2 - 35.88 - -
07 05 11:00 am S 15 16 - - - - 30.03 +0.02 81.5 84.2 - 35.89 - -

Also seeing some pressure falls in the bahamas

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
C-MAN station
MARS payload
26.70 N 79.00 W (26°42'16" N 78°59'40" W)
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 10 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 12 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.9 °F
Previous observations MM DD TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts WVHT
ft DPD
sec APD
sec MWD PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
°F WTMP
°F DEWP
°F SAL VIS
mi TIDE
ft
07 05 5:00 pm SSE 9 11 - - - - 30.00 -0.03 86.0 - 76.6 - - -
07 05 4:00 pm S 8 9 - - - - 30.01 -0.04 87.4 - 78.6 - - -
07 05 3:00 pm SSW 7 8 - - - - 30.01 -0.05 85.6 - 77.2 - - -
07 05 2:00 pm SW 6 8 - - - - 30.03 -0.02 85.6 - 75.4 - - -
07 05 1:00 pm SSW 10 11 - - - - 30.05 +0.00 84.7 - 77.7 - - -
07 05 12:00 pm S 4 5 - - - - 30.06 +0.01 86.2 - 78.3 - - -
07 05 11:00 am SW 2 3 - - - - 30.05 +0.03 87.3 - 76.5 - - -
07 05 10:00 am SE 2 2 - - - - 30.04 +0.03 80.4 - 72.0 - -

[CHRISTY]

Here's a map i just made on my current thinking....

[Noah]

Here's a map i just made on my current thinking....

Swept up the west coast of florida? And do what? Wait,, this is not official.. I get confused with all these speculations!

[SouthFloridawx]

You can definitely see the ULL moving on the composit long range loop.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[brunota2003]

It seems that the ULL is now moving north, will hit Florida, but could remerge over the Atlantic in a day or so...also it appears t-storms are firing "closer" to the center on the south part of the circulation...but this is only an ametuer obs and NOT OFFICIAL...only my thoughts...

[CHRISTY]

Here's a map i just made on my current thinking....

Swept up the west coast of florida? And do what?

alot of the models move this feature into florida but like mentioned before if manages to stay shore it might have a chance of becoming something tropical meaning a tropical depression or maybe a subtropical depression, in my opinion it will likely get swept up by the trough of low pressure and bring nasty weather to the NE.

[sunnyday]

What part of South Fl. is expected to get the rain? Thankfully, it won't be a ts or hurricane when it gets here.

[Noah]

Can you give me a link to the model sites..like the one that shows the spaghetti models?

[Jim Cantore]

My thinking takes this north in response to the Jet stream, so this wont have much time to do anything, I'm hanging this one out to dry for now.

you never know though.

[CHRISTY]

What part of South Fl. is expected to get the rain? Thankfully, it won't be a ts or hurricane when it gets here.

I think everywere across southflorida stands a good chance of seeing some heavy downpours tommorow or maybe even tonight during overnight hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

The is some vorticity in the 850mb region in the florida straights... shear tendency is falling throughout the area also.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

[CHRISTY]

Can you give me a link to the model sites..like the one that shows the spaghetti models?

Noah Here are some model sites.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models.html
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/
http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/animations.html

[skysummit]

Can you give me a link to the model sites..like the one that shows the spaghetti models?

There are no spaghetti plots for this...since this is nothing. Plots are only generated once an Invest is declared.

[chadtm80]

Ok Folks,let's return to discuss about the system and not get into non important things about who gets credit for what.

Just so everyone is clear here though Plagerism is not acceptable here. It is a big deal as it should be