Models suggest SE tropical low..

[SCMedic]

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WILL NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES
TO EXTENDED ATTM BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL/TROPICAL LOW
ALONG THE COAST SUN INTO MON. ALREADY HAVE POPS FOR TUE AND WED
AFTN GIVEN RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH TEMPS RISING
AGAIN ALONG WITH LOW LVL MSTR.


I don't have the availability to post image links at work(damn websense), but a few of the models are developing a tropical low just of the GA/SC coast..

[gatorcane]

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WILL NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES
TO EXTENDED ATTM BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL/TROPICAL LOW
ALONG THE COAST SUN INTO MON. ALREADY HAVE POPS FOR TUE AND WED
AFTN GIVEN RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH TEMPS RISING
AGAIN ALONG WITH LOW LVL MSTR.


I don't have the availability to post image links at work(damn websense), but a few of the models are developing a tropical low just of the GA/SC coast..

What discussion is this from?

[SCMedic]

Morehead City, NC...

[brunota2003]

that would be the AFD from Morehead City that I posted earlier...

[SCMedic]

Exactly...I had noticed the models earlier, and then read your post, so I put together a new thread for it.

[SCMedic]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

At the cyclone phase and analysis page it shows current and future lows and shows the analysis of each featured low by the models. You may want to take a look at it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[brunota2003]

the thing that I'm curious about is how close to the coast will it "form" looks more like a heavy rain maker for my area again...(like we need more rain after last weeks deluge)

[brunota2003]

From Dr. Masters:

Development is being hindered by the system's close proximity to land, and it will do better if it can move away from the coast. The NOGAPS model is suggesting that the low may move more into the Gulf of Mexico and show some slow development, but the rest of the models disagree. They indicate that the current low will not develop at all, but that a new low associated with the same surface trough of low pressure will develop on Saturday south of the Carolinas. This system would then get swept up the coast this weekend, possibly bringing strong winds to Cape Hatteras. The storm would continue moving up the coast, passing several hundred miles east of Cape Cod on Sunday night.

Must be what the AFD is talking about...read the rest of his blog here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200607

[brunota2003]

Latest AFD from Morehead City, was a quick update but still...:

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...COLDFRONT SHOULD EASE
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING PER GFS/WRF. GFS TRIES
TO DEVELOP WAVE ON FRONT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...KEEPING PRECIP CHCS
NEAR THE COAST. HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK INLAND TO BETTER MATCH WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL POP NEAR THE COAST
FRIDAY.

[george_r_1961]

My thinking now is any low the forms will probably NOT be tropical. Its developing on a frontal trough. Could be a significant gale center though.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Everyone must keep in mind that some models were showing a low forming last week too, and it never did. Also I agree with George_r_1961, with the current setup along the SE Coast I doubt it'll be tropical if it does form.

[GulfBreezer]

Morehead City, NC...

Wow.....that is where I was born............hmmmm, yes it is off topic but I just don't see that city mentioned too often.

[Noah]

Morehead City, NC...

Wow.....that is where I was born............hmmmm, yes it is off topic but I just don't see that city mentioned too often.

Well I think that is terrific!

[brunota2003]

Morehead City, NC...

Wow.....that is where I was born............hmmmm, yes it is off topic but I just don't see that city mentioned too often.

Off topic again...however...here is something you probably havent heard in a long time...MCAS Cherry Point...I was born in the old naval hospital there before they tore it down...and now am in Havelock...I know...I moved so far...a whole whopping three miles (though inbetween birth and now I have lived in Va as well...)

[SouthFloridawx]