MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1452
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0720 AM CDT THU JUL 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ.
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 061220Z - 061415Z
   
   PERSISTENT MCS -- WHICH HAS MOVED NWWD ACROSS WRN CHIHUAHUA AND
   ERN/NRN SONORA FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MUCH
   PIMA/COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ/SRN PINAL AND SWRN GRAHAM COUNTIES THROUGH
   15Z.  VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH RATES 1-2
   INCHES/HOUR...ALONG WITH OUTFLOW GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS.  HOWEVER
   ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL IS TOO MRGL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW. 
   
   GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EVIDENT IN WARMING IR CLOUD TOP
   TEMPS...AND IN TUS REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   WELL AHEAD OF MOST CONVECTION IN TUS REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY.  HOWEVER
   ASSOCIATED/LONG-LIVED COLD POOL AND CONTINUED/EPISODIC FORMATION OF
   CONVECTION BEHIND BOUNDARY MAY DRIVE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS
   AREA BETWEEN FHU...TUS AND CGZ...LOCALLY CHANNELED/INTENSIFIED BY
   OROGRAPHIC FORCING. 
   
   MODIFIED/AVAILABLE RAOB DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES
   AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF AREA.  HOWEVER...PRECONVECTIVE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN COOLED AND DECOUPLED
   WITH LARGE SBCINH VALUES AOA 200 J/KG OVER MANY AREAS. THIS SHOULD
   HELP TO MITIGATE SFC DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE FORCED ASCENT
   BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO BOOST PARCELS TO LFC. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
   IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH AROUND 1.5 INCH PW
   ESTIMATED BOTH FROM FCST SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED GPS-DERIVED
   DATA.  HOWEVER..ELEVATED AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT NATURE OF ACTIVITY
   SUGGESTS HEAVIEST RATES WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
   
   31841275 32331224 32931176 32991099 32841067 32471024
   31330952 31331107

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CDT THU JUL 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061605Z - 061800Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN VERY MOIST POST-FRONTAL
   BAND ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AREA.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION
   SUFFICIENTLY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
   AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.  THIS COULD OCCUR AS
   EARLY AS 18Z...AS STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO
   MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH SOME HAIL POTENTIAL...DESPITE WEAK SHEAR.
   PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH...MAY BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS
   UNSATURATED PRE-FRONTAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE
   COOLING NEAR STRONGER PRECIPITATION CORES.  A WEAK THERMAL LOW COULD
   FOCUS PRIMARY THREAT AREA SOUTH OF FLORENCE INTO THE MYRTLE BEACH/
   WILMINGTON AREAS BETWEEN 18-21Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   33238043 33807990 34317929 34687856 34677768 34347723
   33487866 32607944 32297992 32488047 32868054

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CDT THU JUL 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WA...NRN ID...WRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061842Z - 062045Z
   
   STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE INITIALLY OVER NRN
   AND ERN WA AND FAR NRN ID. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEFORE
   20Z...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SPREADING
   INTO WRN MT.
   
   STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER WA AND NRN
   ID...MAINLY DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT HAVE BEEN AIDED
   BY A RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE WITH DECREASING
   SURFACE BASED CIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH FORCING WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE
   WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAIL...POTENTIALLY QUITE LARGE...WILL BE
   LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE WITH PWAT > 1.00 IN. INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH
   MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED
   HAILSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND A CONCERN WITH STRONGEST CELLS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
   
   49031458 47881364 45541235 44861331 44571471 44541545
   44591702 45681747 46381827 47121935 48152017 49002065

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1455
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT THU JUL 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 061956Z - 062300Z
   
   VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
   SERN AZ WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY IN AREAS TO THE S AND W. AN ISOLATED HAIL
   REPORT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.
   
   A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50 IN. WEAK SLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ON E SIDE OF
   WEAK UPPER LOW WHICH WILL FAVOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ON S FACING
   SLOPES. MODIFIED 18Z TUS SOUNDING SHOWS A GENERALLY WEAK WIND
   PROFILE BUT WITH MODERATE 20-30 KT SELY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THIS TYPE
   OF HODOGRAPH WILL RESULT IN LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT...WHILE CONTINUED
   DEVELOPMENT ON EXISTING OUTFLOW/SLOPES WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF HEAVY
   RAIN.  LATER IN THE DAY...SMALL MESO-HIGH DUE TO COMBINED COOL
   OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS JUST S
   AND W WHERE STRONG HEATING CONTINUES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   32820958 32291072 32951127 33511137 34211040 34110979
   33850961

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT THU JUL 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTR MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588...
   
   VALID 062154Z - 062330Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NRN
   ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG
   AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED AL0NG AND JUST EAST OF THE BITTERROOT
   RANGE IN WRN MT. MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHICH
   COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SUPPORT THE
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
   STORMS ACROSS WW 588...WEAKER INSTABILITY EXISTS FURTHER EAST IN THE
   FOOTHILLS OF THE ERN ROCKIES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN MT MAY WEAKEN SOME EAST OF THE WATCH.
   ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
   WATCH...IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE
   NEEDED FURTHER EAST.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...PDT...
   
   46081167 45531347 45571639 46601760 47761758 48671684
   48951507 48891301 48541160 47021113

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CDT FRI JUL 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 071841Z - 072015Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   UPPER FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING/SHEARING IMPULSE ON
   WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA
   UNAFFECTED BY MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.  SCATTERED NEW VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY NEAR APPARENT OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PHOENIX...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO
   THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE OUTFLOW.  WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   HAIL/BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES IN
   WEAKLY SHEARED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
   
   SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ...BUT
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OTHERWISE REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.5
   INCHES...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALL AS WELL.
   BELT OF STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS APPARENT TO THE
   SOUTH/EAST OF LINGERING CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...GENERALLY EAST
   OF PHOENIX INTO THE TUCSON AREA...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SLOW
   MOVING...TRAINING STORMS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   33031300 33311317 33791291 34281106 33860979 32370996
   31051053 31461148 32081179 32491217 32961270

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT FRI JUL 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND...NRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072021Z - 072215Z
   
   DOWNBURST AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE IN VICINITY OF N-S
   ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD
   GENERALLY BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...THUS A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE
   DAKOTAS...APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM FOR INDUCING
   SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN ND INTO FAR NWRN SD. THIS
   ACTIVITY REMAINS W OF A SURFACE TROUGH ATTM. THE AIR MASS ALONG AND
   JUST TO THE E OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING...AS
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 90S AND MLCAPES HAVE
   APPROACHED 2000 J/KG. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
   DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
   THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS THAT
   PROPAGATE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   44600074 45110227 45750231 47030202 48310125 48820043
   48909895 48759759 47309755 45249854 4477989

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT FRI JUL 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL SD...NRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072214Z - 072345Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND MOVE INTO SCNTRL SD AND NRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT ALTHOUGH A
   WW WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH IN PLACE FROM CNTRL ND EXTENDING
   SSWWD INTO WRN SD AND WRN NEB. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
   THE TROUGH AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER
   60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
   STRONG UPDRAFTS AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KT
   SUGGESTING WEAK MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC
   TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS CURRENTLY EXCEED 40 DEGREES ALONG THE AXIS OF
   THE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
   THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   41610084 41870234 42780244 44250094 44790021 44449904
   43579888

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 PM CDT SAT JUL 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN KS AND PARTS OF THE TX/OK PNHDLS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 082031Z - 082200Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   STRONG HEATING INTO THE 90S...NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
   KANSAS...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF HILL CITY THROUGH GARDEN CITY...INTO
   THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN
   BENEATH LINGERING RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED
   LAYER CAPE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG NEAR GARDEN CITY.  THIS IS
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED...PROVIDING A
   FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ...WHICH MAY INITIATE AS
   EARLY AS 21-22Z.
   
   AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF FOUR CORNERS
   IMPULSE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AROUND SOUTHERN PLAINS
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THEN APPEARS
   POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  THOUGH VERY WEAK FLOW/SHEAR IS NOT
   SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION... THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.  AS OUTFLOWS EVENTUALLY
   CONSOLIDATE...A TRANSITION TOWARD A BROADER SCALE WIND THREAT MAY
   OCCUR...BUT PEAK GUSTS PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH BELOW SEVERE
   LIMITS...PARTICULARLY AS CONVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS INTO SLIGHTLY
   COOLER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
   
   38640127 39170038 38999927 38229910 36869978 36120091
   35750191 36090275 36770262 37450178 38150136

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL VA...CNTRL MD...PARTS OF DE...ERN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091636Z - 091800Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD CORE IS ALREADY
   SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF
   THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  MODEL FORECASTS AND OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS INDICATE MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BY
   PEAK HEATING...FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA THROUGH EASTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA.  THOUGH THIS IS NOT EXTREME...PARTICULARLY IN WEAK TO
   PERHAPS MODERATE SHEAR REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED
   DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION FIELD APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AS CLOSED LOW
   CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT THROUGH THE MID
   ATLANTIC STATES...AHEAD OF UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION AND
   AN INCREASING NUMBER OF STORMS THROUGH 20-21Z...ALONG AND EAST OF
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON
   D.C./BALTIMORE AREAS INTO AREAS WEST OF PHILADELPHIA.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
   
   39867854 40817831 41577754 41877635 41827559 41247501
   40337515 39727562 38857656 38397763 38297808 38637924
   39067902

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MI...WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091821Z - 091945Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   COLD CORE OF VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY TO LAG
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...BUT AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING IS
   ONGOING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE...SUPPORTING INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A BELT FROM NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
   EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THOUGH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
   1000+ J/KG IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG... VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG 50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. 
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BEFORE
   STRONGER FORCING NEAR MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER SHIFTS
   EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
   BY/SHORTLY AFTER 21Z.  THIS MAY SUPPORT GROWING ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
   STORMS WITH PERHAPS A BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...IN
   ADDITION TO HAIL...AFFECTING ALPENA/HOUGHTON LAKE AND AREAS TO THE
   SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...
   
   44998799 45368645 45758511 45988441 45898325 45138226
   44228304 43618409 43498538 43568685 42958915 43069038
   43719010 43998883

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589...
   
   VALID 092053Z - 092230Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
   MICHIGAN.
   
   EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS ON NOSE OF 45-50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
   WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...BETWEEN
   TRAVERSE CITY AND MANISTEE...THROUGH 22Z.  ADDITIONAL INTENSE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF
   HOUGHTON LAKE...AS FORCING INCREASES IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
   MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 1500 J/KG. GIVEN UNSATURATED THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES...WHICH WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS...
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FORWARD
   PROPAGATING COLD POOL AS MEAN FLOW FIELDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN NEXT FEW HOURS. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY NOT MUCH
    EXCEED 50 KT...BUT COULD BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN A SWATH ACROSS
   HOUGHTON LAKE AND ADJACENT AREAS...TOWARD THE MICHIGAN THUMB BY
   23-00Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   45018569 45028480 44878433 44708396 44598353 43978319
   43558442 43408516 43578596 43918653 44178678 44388681
   44558625

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/FAR NORTHERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589...
   
   VALID 092101Z - 092230Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WI IN THE
   SHORT TERM. WILL MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTHERN WI INTO FAR NORTHERN IL.
   
   ON THE FRINGE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH
   NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
   PAST HALF HOUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI /SOUTH OF LA CROSSE/ NEAR A
   SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHWEST WI TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL MDT-TOWERING CU IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE
   FRONT WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST IA...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHERN WI.
   AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY CAPPED/MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITH BLUE
   RIVER WI PROFILER DATA INDICATIVE OF CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
   WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS.
   
   CURRENT THINKING IS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED ON
   THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SEVERE WATCH 589...HOWEVER STORMS WILL
   NEVERTHELESS BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN IL. IF SUFFICIENT STORM
   COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION BECOMES APPARENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   43189157 43749083 43628849 42138822 41728861 41909003

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0627 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN WI...NRN IL EWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 092327Z - 100030Z
   
   ...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SRN WI/NRN IL
   EWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MONITORING AREA FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW...THOUGH LACK OF COVERAGE MAY PRECLUDE ISSUANCE.
   
   A BAND OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM EXTREME
   NERN IA ACROSS SWRN WI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI...MAINLY WITHIN WW 589.
   THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE SWD OUT OF THIS WW DURING THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SRN
   WI WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST ...WITH MLCAPES NEAR 2500
   J/KG. HOWEVER...THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
   MOVING EWD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO...WILL SWEEP EAST OF THIS
   AREA SHORTLY WITH THE STORM COVERAGE LIKELY NOT TO INCREASE
   SIGNIFICANTLY.
   
   OTHER STORMS...LOCATED WITH ONTARIO TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT...ARE MOVING THROUGH NRN LOWER MI AND WILL SHIFT SEWD DURING
   THE EVENING. THE INSTABILITY IS WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN OVER
   SRN WI/NRN IL...SO THESE STORMS MAY ALSO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT
   TWO-THREE HOURS. ATTM...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE SEVERE STORMS
   COVERAGE FOR A NEW WW TO BE ISSUED SOUTH OF WW 589.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   43378636 43898389 43878275 43308267 42498397 42348534
   41858974 42809084

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO ERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101442Z - 101615Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
   MID/UPPER 70S THIS MORNING ACROSS OH INTO WRN PARTS OF
   PA/NY...SUPPORTING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000
   J/KG.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING
   SEWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC
   HEATING WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG.
   
   TSTMS ONGOING ALONG THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE ARE EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NRN OH INTO WRN PA/NY BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS
   DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT VWPS
   INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KTS IN THE LOWEST
   6 KM/ WILL EXIST OVER ERN OH INTO WRN PA.  HERE...POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   40368292 40878279 41698133 42108015 43117889 43397833
   43397764 43157722 42177731 40987881 40457995 40038121
   39878251

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0959 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ME
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101459Z - 101630Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST
   TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN FROM JUST E OF MWN TO APPROXIMATELY 65 NNW BGR.  12Z
   UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
   RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH VT/NH.  WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
   AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE MOST
   INTENSE STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
   
   45866780 45216788 44566958 43917117 44107172 44597168
   45137109 45916957 46286874 46406820

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 101829Z - 102100Z
   
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SVR MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. A WW
   IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
   
   SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW REINFORCED
   WARM FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN MO. MEANWHILE...LOW TO MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN A BIT AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS
   ACROSS THE AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW LOW LEVEL
   FLOW ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS CELLS MOVE OVER THE
   SAME AREAS.
   
   FARTHER S...ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED WITH SCATTERED STORMS FORMING
   WITHIN HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING MECHANISM IS RELATIVELY
   WEAK WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH...BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW
   FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS WITH PULSE TO MULTICELLULAR
   CONVECTION. CURRENT GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES
   AND WEAK WIND PROFILES SUPPORT BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   36719260 35779327 34899547 33499766 33359875 33479921
   34109933 35849866 36939829 37779784 38059547 37969371
   37689261 37079252

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590...
   
   VALID 101948Z - 102045Z
   
   THROUGH 22Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST
   OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.
   
   AS OF 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF
   TSTMS FROM NERN PA /20 NE OF FKL/ TO NEAR FDY IN NWRN OH.  THE MOST
   INTENSE PORTION OF THIS LINE WAS LOCATED OVER RICHLAND...ASHLAND AND
   WAYNE COUNTIES IN OH WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 330/15 KTS.  RUC
   OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP PLOTS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
   OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-40
   KTS AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD
   THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO.  RESULTING WIND PROFILES ARE INDICATIVE OF A
   MARGINAL SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   INDEED...PERIODIC MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH STRONGER
   STORMS OVER NERN OH INTO NWRN PA THIS AFTERNOON.  EXTRAPOLATION OF
   MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE INDICATES LEADING EDGE
   WILL MOVE S OF WW 590 BY 2130-2200Z.  SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
   INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
   
   40368316 40638262 40808176 40968091 41098044 40678026
   40258036 40038163 39938273 39998307

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND NWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101958Z - 102230Z
   
   A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL.
   A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE.
   
   STRONG UPPER VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD ACROSS ERN WA INTO WRN MT.
   COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH STORMS NOW EVOLVING FROM NRN ID INTO
   NWRN MT. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH 35-40 KT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG LIVED CELLS TO DEVELOP
   BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY REACH 1.50" DIAMETER
   WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...
   
   48951696 48971015 47540951 46481059 46331292 46401481
   46821550 48031650

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN OK / FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102154Z - 110000Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAVE LEFT COOL OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
   OK. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY HOT />100F/ OVER SWRN
   OK...WITH ABOUT 1.75 IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING. GIVEN THE
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DCAPE ~1000 J/KG IS
   PRESENT ACROSS SWRN OK.
   
   SLY FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL
   MAINTAIN A FLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR EVEN ATOP COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE
   OVER CENTRAL OK. ALSO...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE...WITH MEAN WINDS TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EWD.
   
   THEREFORE...THE THREAT REMAINS FOR A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
   I-40/I-44 CORRIDORS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA...
   
   35360101 36309960 36449869 36629781 36469713 36099718
   35829780 35219743 34999667 34609624 33949640 33859687
   34179795 34629917 35000063