Low Pressure in NW Gulf, Thoughts?

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HurricaneHunter914
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#21 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:10 pm

White Cap wrote:What are the chances of any development? Any shear?


Chances of development are low since this is actually a ULL, but the shear is decreasing.
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#22 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:47 pm

CMC is picking up on something on the 8th...

12Z run

Image

Image
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#23 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:49 pm

And also NoGaps around that time period.

Image

Image
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#24 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:52 pm

CMC brings an organized feature into Texas/Mexico in 72 hours.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
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#25 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:53 pm

As does the NOGAPS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation
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#26 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:45 pm

Our local met also was somewhat concerned with the swirl in the gulf and the fact that the front is going to make it into the gulf this time of year. He said we need to watch this area for tropical development for the next few days but as of right now there's no big threat. I wish the front would hang around here for one more day as we've had some hefty rains today that were much needed.
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#27 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:53 pm

Bob Breck in NOLA didn't seem concerned at all. He did say it's really abnormal for a front to dive this far south this time of year, but he didn't mention any kind of tropical development potential.
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#28 Postby A1A » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:59 pm



Is that last link upper level winds or surface?
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#29 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 06, 2006 6:00 pm

A1A wrote:


Is that last link upper level winds or surface?


That is the link to the 850mb vorticity and sea surface pressure.
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#30 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:23 pm

I will listen to the 10 news here and see what David Glenn has to say on Wpmi~NBC. He is usually full of information.
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#31 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:26 pm

beachbum_al wrote:I will listen to the 10 news here and see what David Glenn has to say on Wpmi~NBC. He is usually full of information.


He did not have much to say about it at 5
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#32 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:31 pm

That tropical wave comes across the Yucatan around 36 to 42 hours. Then we need to watch this very closely.
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#33 Postby A1A » Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:47 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
A1A wrote:


Is that last link upper level winds or surface?


That is the link to the 850mb vorticity and sea surface pressure.


I meant the wind flags that appear in the animation - seems like some pretty strong winds for surface winds.
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#34 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:22 pm

Well if the local mets, our great mets here, and the nhc are not worried about it, then I am not worry about it either.
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