NW Carribean

#101 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:43 pm

All I know is that I would not want to be out on a fishing boat in the western Carib. right now!!!

THat I know for sure! :lol:

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #102 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:43 pm

bigmoney755 wrote:TWO says no development is expected.

Whoops- saw that after I posted...
For now no development is expected according to the NHC (I am
giving credit to them here)
But I will continue to watch it nevertheless...though development is
not imminent, IMO it's possible...it's a wait and see situation.

HurricaneHunter914 · #103 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:46 pm

The NHC said that this will be another active year, but all they are doing is just saying,"Development is not expected". It may be true for some waves but looking at this wave, saying "development is not expected" just because pressures are high is kinda irresponisible. I mean look at this wave. At least give it credit for being persistent.

Stratosphere747 · #104 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:48 pm

The continued questioning of the NHC over the TWO's has become tiresome....

Especially when you call them "irresponsible".....

Rainband · #105 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:50 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:The continued questioning of the NHC over the TWO's has become tiresome....

Especially when you call them "irresponsible".....

AGREED

HurricaneHunter914 · #106 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:51 pm

Okay maybe irresponsible is a little too strong, but when you see how favorable the conditions are in this waves path and how persistent its weird how the NHC turns the wave down like its nothing.

Rainband · #107 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:53 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Okay maybe irresponsible is a little too strong, but when you see how favorable the conditions are in this waves path and how persistent its weird how the NHC turns the wave down like its nothing.

I think they have the expertise to determine what is a threat and what isn't at this time.

beachbum_al · #108 Postby **beachbum_al** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:55 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:All I know is that I would not want to be out on a fishing boat in the western Carib. right now!!!

THat I know for sure!

Or the Gulf of Mexico.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #109 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:56 pm

If the NHC says development not expected, then development is not expected
for some reason. Is it shear? I'm just curious. At least for the near term
development is not expected. As for the future term...I do not know...
it will depend on shear and a number of other factors...such as those
mentioned earlier in this thread about the Bermuda High...
We'll see what happens...

In any case...the area of convection in the NW Caribbean looks intense...
though not characterized by imminent development.

HurricaneHunter914 · #110 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:56 pm

I know they do, but is it wrong for me to express my own personal feelings or should I just tell a lie and say,"Oh the NHC is doing a wonderful job."

#111 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:58 pm

Hunter...I don't think saying that would be a lie. The NHC is doing a wonderful job this year. They nailed Alberto, and and they were correct about every other Invest.

HurricaneHunter914 · #112 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:59 pm

skysummit wrote:Hunter...I don't think saying that would be a lie. The NHC is doing a wonderful job this year. They nailed Alberto, and and they were correct about every other Invest.

What I meant is should I either express my real feelings or should I express fake feelings?

#113 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:01 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070220
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES
REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Basically ... it means that current conditions show that tropical storm formation is not expected through saturday. I would agree with them. I think if something were to happen with would be saturday/sunday as the other wave approaches the the gulf. It will be interesting to see if my prediction of a surface trough developing.

#114 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:02 pm

Well, maybe b/c of its close proximity to land and the direction it's moving, it will be over land so development is not expected. However....if a LLC does happen to form under the persistant convection, and that convection still persists tomorrow, maybe we'll hear a little something different from them....but for now, I'd have to agree....development is not likely in the short term.

#115 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:02 pm

S747 is right. I wouldn't call it irresponsible. Besides, it seems like they've been right up till now.

If there was ever a group of people with no hidden agenda and downright goodwill towards their "customers", it's the NHC. These guys are the absolute best in the nation and the world. Their expertise has been hard earned through years of study, years of experience, and working together to get results.

I've never seen anyone in government who cares more about people than Max Mayfield. These forecasters are the very definition of responsible. To call them irresponsible is, well, irresponsible in itself.

The TWO's are fulfilling their definition and purpose, i.e., a brief roundup of the tropical situation.

In reality I think we have not a few individuals around here who are FRUSTRATED at the lack of tropical development in June/July and are taking it out on the NHC and other forecasters. That's is just plain silly.

The tropics are not a bowling game where we try to spin up as much destruction as possible and then throw pins at the management when we don't get a strike. For those of us who are weather enthusiasts, yes, June and July have been a gutter ball, so-to-speak, if you must use that analogy.

But the management doesn't control the ball and pins. They just make sure everything works properly.

The NHC is doing a FINE job. :grr:

whereverwx · #116 Postby **whereverwx** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:05 pm

I'm going to have to give this a less than 0% chance of actually developing... and that's just being optimistic; besides, this isn't even an invest, is it?

Rainband · #117 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:07 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:S747 is right. I wouldn't call it irresponsible. Besides, it seems like they've been right up till now.

If there was ever a group of people with no hidden agenda and downright goodwill towards their "customers", it's the NHC. These guys are the absolute best in the nation and the world. Their expertise has been hard earned through years of study, years of experience, and working together to get results.

I've never seen anyone in government who cares more about people than Max Mayfield. These forecasters are the very definition of responsible. To call them irresponsible is, well, irresponsible in itself.

The TWO's are fulfilling their definition and purpose, i.e., a brief roundup of the tropical situation.

In reality I think we have not a few individuals around here who are FRUSTRATED at the lack of tropical development in June/July and are taking it out on the NHC and other forecasters. That's is just plain silly.

The tropics are not a bowling game where we try to spin up as much destruction as possible and then throw pins at the management when we don't get a strike. For those of us who are weather enthusiasts, yes, June and July have been a gutter ball, so-to-speak, if you must use that analogy.

But the management doesn't control the ball and pins. They just make sure everything works properly.

The NHC is doing a FINE job.

Bravo

HurricaneHunter914 · #118 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:09 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:S747 is right. I wouldn't call it irresponsible. Besides, it seems like they've been right up till now.

If there was ever a group of people with no hidden agenda and downright goodwill towards their "customers", it's the NHC. These guys are the absolute best in the nation and the world. Their expertise has been hard earned through years of study, years of experience, and working together to get results.

I've never seen anyone in government who cares more about people than Max Mayfield. These forecasters are the very definition of responsible. To call them irresponsible is, well, irresponsible in itself.

The TWO's are fulfilling their definition and purpose, i.e., a brief roundup of the tropical situation.

In reality I think we have not a few individuals around here who are FRUSTRATED at the lack of tropical development in June/July and are taking it out on the NHC and other forecasters. That's is just plain silly.

The tropics are not a bowling game where we try to spin up as much destruction as possible and then throw pins at the management when we don't get a strike. For those of us who are weather enthusiasts, yes, June and July have been a gutter ball, so-to-speak, if you must use that analogy.

But the management doesn't control the ball and pins. They just make sure everything works properly.

The NHC is doing a FINE job.

Okay I'm not fustrated with the lack of development I'm just suprised that the NHC said that development is not expected. What I was hoping for them to say is,"Develpment is not expected at this time". Because right now even though it is over land, conditions are favroable down the road.

#119 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:11 pm

I go much farther in the wording to say that NHC is doing and has done a (terrific) job especially with the track forecasts in the past few years.I know that in terms of the intensity forecast they can do better but in general I will take the NHC information as the #1 one to follow.

HurricaneHunter914 · #120 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:13 pm

I'm sorry guys for causing an uproar. I'm just fuustrated with my older sister right now and I kinda took out my anger on the NHC.

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