NW Carribean

[gtalum]

How silly? Have you forgotten about 9/11?

Of course I haven't. But I don't cower in my home worrying about it either. Perhaps YOU have forgotten that 9/11 happened right here in the US, meaning international travel is certainly no more or less dangerous than domestic.

On the other hand, yes, please don't travel internationally. It's REALLY REALLY dangerous.

Now if a lot more people would just listen to that then prices should drop.

[jasons2k]

At this rate we'll be into thread #2 before this even becomes an invest....not that I think it will....I think it will be onshore in S. Texas next week before it'll have a chance to develop. IMO it's still, and going to be, boring in the tropics for awhile.

[Stormcenter]

The wave axis is already inland over the Yucatan this morning. Convection had fired up across the NW Caribbean as it passed a small upper low. But since the wave axis has passed the low, all convection is diminishing quickly. There will probably be a flare-up of thunderstorms over the Yucatan this afternoon, and some may spread out into the BoC on Sunday, but upper level winds are not going to be favorable for any development through at least the next 5-6 days. An upper level trof is digging all the way down to the southern Gulf, producing moderate W-NW wind flow aloft. With easterly trades of 20-25 kts, a W-NW wind of 25-35 kts aloft means wind shear will be pretty high down there for a while.

Here's a 200mb wind speed/streamline forecast for Sunday morning to demonstrate the increasing wind shear.


http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sgulf.gif

If this (wind shear) could only continue for the next 4 months we would be in great shape. I know it's still early in the season but all indications are this will not even be remotely close to last season in reference to tropical activity. But as I said it's still early in the game.

[skysummit]

Wow 57 that's a good bit farther than the models were predicting earlier, last I heared, it was only going to may it to the NGOM coast today then start retreating.
I didn't think the wave had any chance, but this tail of moisture that is being enhanced by the small upper trough over the Yucatan, I thought could if it stayed in the NW Carribean long enough, but if that kind of shear is realized then forget about it.
Maybe a weekend with no Invest huh.

I can't see it going any further south than it is right now.

[HURAKAN]

At this rate we'll be into thread #2 before this even becomes an invest....not that I think it will....I think it will be onshore in S. Texas next week before it'll have a chance to develop. IMO it's still, and going to be, boring in the tropics for awhile.

Early season style!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'd like a Tropical Cyclone to form, but as fish storm.

[cycloneye]

At this rate we'll be into thread #2 before this even becomes an invest....not that I think it will....I think it will be onshore in S. Texas next week before it'll have a chance to develop. IMO it's still, and going to be, boring in the tropics for awhile.

Last year was a very hyperactive season that started a few days after June 1.But so far this 2006 season has been in a normal June and July pattern.

[boca]

What was Gray's prediction 17 storms this year?

[HurricaneHunter914]

He decreased it to 16 named storms.

[boca]

Thanks hurricanehunter914.

[HurricaneHunter914]

No Problem.

[bigmoney755]

I have a hard time believing we will get 14+ named storms and 4-6 major hurricanes like the experts are predicting.

[tailgater]

Wow 57 that's a good bit farther than the models were predicting earlier, last I heared, it was only going to may it to the NGOM coast today then start retreating.
I didn't think the wave had any chance, but this tail of moisture that is being enhanced by the small upper trough over the Yucatan, I thought could if it stayed in the NW Carribean long enough, but if that kind of shear is realized then forget about it.
Maybe a weekend with no Invest huh.

I can't see it going any further south than it is right now.

Looking at the WV loop it is still diving pretty good, Watch out when it lifts though.
That's when JB will be hopping all over the gulf for development, after a trough lifts or spilts this far south.

[TS Zack]

That front is really not located there. If you look at dew points along the Gulf Coast they are still in the mid 70's. In the mid-levels there is dry air moving in but none will get down to the surface.

That map looks ominous when you look at it because they show a cold front still driving South, obviously it is not much of a front nor is it moving. Its washing out as we speak. Don't expect this to be a big player with the NW Caribbean disturbance, maybe just add a little fuel to the fire.[/quote]

[cycloneye]

What was Gray's prediction 17 storms this year?

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... /june2006/

Yes,boca he has 17 named storms in his June forecast.

[Scorpion]

I have a hard time believing we will get 14+ named storms and 4-6 major hurricanes like the experts are predicting.

Why? Its early July. We already have one named storm. Thats perfectly normal. You are just another person who is posting these annoying "season is dead" posts. 2004 had 0 named storms until July 31.

[bigmoney755]

Why? Its early July. We already have one named storm. Thats perfectly normal. You are just another person who is posting these annoying "season is dead" posts. 2004 had 0 named storms until July 31.

We need to get 1 minimal hurricane before we start talking 6 cat 3,4,5 hurricanes.

[SouthFloridawx]

I have a hard time believing we will get 14+ named storms and 4-6 major hurricanes like the experts are predicting.

Why? Its early July. We already have one named storm. Thats perfectly normal. You are just another person who is posting these annoying "season is dead" posts. 2004 had 0 named storms until July 31.

Do we really need a reminder?

Hurricane Alex 07/31 - 08/06 120 mph 957 mb 1 Category 1
Tropical Storm Bonnie 08/03 - 08/14 65 mph 1001 mb 3 Tropical Storm
Hurricane Charley 08/09 - 08/15 145 mph 947 mb 15 Category 4
Hurricane Danielle 08/13 - 08/24 110 mph 964 mb - -
Tropical Storm Earl 08/13 - 08/15 50 mph 1009 mb - -
Hurricane Frances 08/25 - 09/10 145 mph 937 mb 7 Category 2
Hurricane Gaston 08/27 - 09/03 75 mph 986 mb - Category 1
Tropical Storm Hermine 08/27 - 08/31 60 mph 1002 mb 8 Tropical Storm
Hurricane Ivan 09/02 - 09/24 165 mph 910 mb 92 Category 3
Hurricane Jeanne 09/13 - 09/29 120 mph 951 mb 3000 Category 3
Hurricane Karl 09/16 - 09/28 145 mph 938 mb - -
Hurricane Lisa 09/19 - 10/03 75 mph 987 mb - -
Tropical Storm Matthew 10/08 - 10/11 45 mph 997 mb - Tropical Storm
Unnamed Subtropical Storm 10/10 - 10/11 50 mph 986 mb - -
Tropical Storm Otto 11/26 - 12/05 50 mph 995 mb - -

[skysummit]

That front is really not located there. If you look at dew points along the Gulf Coast they are still in the mid 70's. In the mid-levels there is dry air moving in but none will get down to the surface.

That map looks ominous when you look at it because they show a cold front still driving South, obviously it is not much of a front nor is it moving. Its washing out as we speak. Don't expect this to be a big player with the NW Caribbean disturbance, maybe just add a little fuel to the fire.

[/quote]

I don't know Zack...all the lastest metar obs in south La. are showing north to northeasterly winds.

[AJC3]

That front is really not located there. If you look at dew points along the Gulf Coast they are still in the mid 70's. In the mid-levels there is dry air moving in but none will get down to the surface.

That map looks ominous when you look at it because they show a cold front still driving South, obviously it is not much of a front nor is it moving. Its washing out as we speak. Don't expect this to be a big player with the NW Caribbean disturbance, maybe just add a little fuel to the fire.

I don't know Zack...all the lastest metar obs in south La. are showing north to northeasterly winds.

I think you both are making the same point - i.e. the wind shift to N and NE is well out ahead of the actual air mass change. This is typical for the few frontal boundaries that impinge on the southern states this time of year: they lay out east-west, have little if any temp change, especially compared to the dew point change, and this change usually lags the wind shift by quite a bit.

One interesting thing about these types of boundaries in east central Florida during the late spring-early summer is that frequently temps will actually wind up about 5-8F cooler behind these boundaries, not beacause of synoptic cool air advection, but instead owing to the fact that the winds will be coming off the water - e.g. westerly flow with temps in the middle 90s dropping back to the mid-upper 80s with onshore flow.