EPAC: Invest 98E

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

FLOATER:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float7.html

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Looks impressive enough - I think this will become a depression within 24 hours and probably Tropical Storm Bud. You can easily see the marine layer marking the colder water temps up ahead though, so this doesn't have a huge window of opportunity ahead of it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If only we could get something like that in the Atlantic Ocean, then we can really kick off the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[CrazyC83]

It looks very impressive. I give it a 70% chance of developing.

[clfenwi]

1605Z TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N112W MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NW IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW
AND SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Even if were to do what 97E did and go northwest, it would still have a 36-48 hours before it got north of the 26° line. I don't think it will do that though... I think it'll and do due west instead, where it would run out of the most favorable temperatures in the same amount of time, it still would have something managable.

It does appear to have a more favorable upper air situation than previous invests...I'm hesitant to say that this will probably become Bud, but it's definitely possible.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

Definitly getting better organized could be a depression by tonight.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 071618
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


It better organize more quickly before it hits the cooler waters.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh I hope it moves into cooler water or the Atlantic will be left behind.

[HURAKAN]

Oh I hope it moves into cooler water or the Atlantic will be left behind.

Since 1995, the Atlantic entered in an active period while the Eastern Pacific (to balance things out!!!) went to an inactive phase. These periods or phases are only interupted when an EL NIÑO event pops-up. So, don't worry, the Atlantic won't be left behind for a long time in case the EPAC steps foreward!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

I know, but it would be cool IMO if the Atlantic was beating the EPAC already in June.

[CrazyC83]

I know, but it would be cool IMO if the Atlantic was beating the EPAC already in June.

Like last year.

[CrazyC83]

Oh I hope it moves into cooler water or the Atlantic will be left behind.

That's normal. Hurricane season in the Pacific peaks earlier and dies suddenly. IMO the Pacific season should be May 1 - October 31.

[bombarderoazul]

Go Epac Go!

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 072228
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED
AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HurricaneJoe22]

another promising system with a good circulation that has failed to generate strong convection and maintain it. this is maybe the fifth or sixth system I can remember so far this year south of Cabo San Lucas that looked real good and then went to crap....what's up with that this year?

[RattleMan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080311
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If the Nhc waits another 12 hours to upgrade this. Just watch this thing fall apart by then!

[HURAKAN]

Not much left to call it a potential TD. EPAC, wait patiently!

[AnnularCane]

Poor little Bud is trying to be born, but he can't seem to find a good spot.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Latest satellite shows good convection over the center. But if the nhc waits to much longer then we can forget this storm.