NW Carribean

[Frank P]

Bob Breck uptight? Naahhhh... Now the big question - what did Viper say?

Yeah wasn't it Breck that was saying last year while Katrina was heading toward FL that she was NOT going to get into the GOM... and not to worry about it as it was going up the east coast... If my memory doesn't fail me now I do think that's what he said early on about Katrina... He served himself up a nice plate of crow, or at least he should have....

In his defense "every" weather personality/met had Katrina heading toward Florida on the Friday and even Saturday before her final landfall.

Hey don't get me wrong, I like Breck too... he has passion about the weather... but this was by far his worst forecast, and unfortunately as stated earlier people will remember it too... I still like to hear what he has to say especially on the tropic, and everyone makes mistakes... unfortunately my mistakes on not on TV with thousands of people watching...

Derek Ortt did not have Katrina going to FL during that period.... he was pinpointing the MS/LA state line on late Friday I think, maybe even earlier .. he would remember better than me..... Regardless, Derek's early advisory pinpointing the MS and LA coast, along with the scare of Ivan in 04 and the hugh surge it brought in is what probably saved my life and convinced me to evacuate off the beach... not to mention that I didn't want to risk my basset hounds... of which neither one can swim an inch... I guess its hard to swim when you're only 12 inches tall and weigh 85 pounds...

[skysummit]

Bob Breck uptight? Naahhhh... Now the big question - what did Viper say?

Yeah wasn't it Breck that was saying last year while Katrina was heading toward FL that she was NOT going to get into the GOM... and not to worry about it as it was going up the east coast... If my memory doesn't fail me now I do think that's what he said early on about Katrina... He served himself up a nice plate of crow, or at least he should have....

In his defense "every" weather personality/met had Katrina heading toward Florida on the Friday and even Saturday before her final landfall.

Well, it wasn't only that he had her going toward Florida, it was the fact that before she ever hit the peninsula, he assured us that there was no way, no how, Katrina was getting into gulf....nothing to worry about. Then, when she wasn't recurving like he predicted, he still said she would recurve on the peninsula....again, no way, no how was she getting to us....nothing to worry about.

[Derek Ortt]

0300 UTC, with verifications starting at 0000 was our first forecast which brought Katrina near the border

http://www.nwhhc.com/Archives/2005/Atla ... trina.html

[kjun]

WWL, Channel 4 advertises on a commecial that they are the only station with 4 mets. This is not true. WDSU and FOX8 also have 4. Looking at the whole picture, WSDU has the strongest team, followed by FOX8, then WWL is last. Dan Thomas is a great addition to WDSU and Chip does great on FOX8. I have little confidence in any but Jeremy on WWL.

[skysummit]

What.....no one watches ABC26 with Bruce Katz????

[TS Zack]

LOL... Funny sky.

WDSU is IMO the worst in New Orleans. Dan Thomas is okay but he is leaving now. The problem with WDSU is they are all MS State grads.

[N2DaTropics]

Bob Breck uptight? Naahhhh... Now the big question - what did Viper say?

Yeah wasn't it Breck that was saying last year while Katrina was heading toward FL that she was NOT going to get into the GOM... and not to worry about it as it was going up the east coast... If my memory doesn't fail me now I do think that's what he said early on about Katrina... He served himself up a nice plate of crow, or at least he should have....

In his defense "every" weather personality/met had Katrina heading toward Florida on the Friday and even Saturday before her final landfall.

Hey don't get me wrong, I like Breck too... he has passion about the weather... but this was by far his worst forecast, and unfortunately as stated earlier people will remember it too... I still like to hear what he has to say especially on the tropic, and everyone makes mistakes... unfortunately my mistakes on not on TV with thousands of people watching...

Derek Ortt did not have Katrina going to FL during that period.... he was pinpointing the MS/LA state line on late Friday I think, maybe even earlier .. he would remember better than me..... Regardless, Derek's early advisory pinpointing the MS and LA coast, along with the scare of Ivan in 04 and the hugh surge it brought in is what probably saved my life and convinced me to evacuate off the beach... not to mention that I didn't want to risk my basset hounds... of which neither one can swim an inch... I guess its hard to swim when you're only 12 inches tall and weigh 85 pounds...

I am a Derek Ortt fan also...I got on the Ortt bandwagon a couple of years ago...he is an execellent met/forecaster...he does an excellent job of explaining his forecast reasoning and his forecasts are usually very accurate...any posts by Ortt or M Watkins go right to the top of my lists...they are not the only posters whom I have grown to trust and respect on this board, but they are the very top of my list...

[kjun]

Is Dan Thomas really leaving?? WDSU and FOX8 are the only N.O. weather teams that are good IMO. Many people here in the Houma Area can not forget the plea that Bob Breck made for Lili. He scared a lot of people in this area. Many feel that he overreacts; but that is just not the case. I really believe that he is usually the Met that tends to be the best at lessening the emotions when these big storms come our way. Judging him for one storm is not fair and I personally think that Bob is the best in the N.O. market.

[cajungal]

Is Dan Thomas really leaving?? WDSU and FOX8 are the only N.O. weather teams that are good IMO. Many people here in the Houma Area can not forget the plea that Bob Breck made for Lili. He scared a lot of people in this area. Many feel that he overreacts; but that is just not the case. I really believe that he is usually the Met that tends to be the best at lessening the emotions when these big storms come our way. Judging him for one storm is not fair and I personally think that Bob is the best in the N.O. market.

Yeah, I remember him for Lili since I live in Terrebonne Parish just north of Houma. It was too late to leave by the point anyway. Little left to do but ride it out. Bob did publically apologize on TV for his mistakes with Katrina. He is human and just put too much faith in the VIPIR model. It is not that I don't like Bob as a person, but after that, I really don't take much faith in his forecasts anymore. But, no meterologist on this earth has ever been perfect. Anyway, let's get back on topic. Anybody has anything to add about the NW caribbean discussion?

[tailgater]

Must be pretty slow out there.

[Stormcenter]

Must be pretty slow out there.

Well I mean there are clusters of thunderstorms in the tropics (NW Carr. & GOM) but nothing promising (if you like hurricanes) based on the NHC's outlook.

[cajungal]

This time July will not be a good month for tropical development. It will be slow and boring. I just like watching hurricanes develop as long as they are not expected to affect anybody. I don't want the hassle of having to evacuate for another hurricane. I think things will wait until August and September to really get cooking. That is the prime time for hurricane development anyway. 2005 was just a very wild season and a season that I hope does not get repeated anytime soon.

[Stormcenter]

This time July will not be a good month for tropical development. It will be slow and boring. I just like watching hurricanes develop as long as they are not expected to affect anybody. I don't want the hassle of having to evacuate for another hurricane. I think things will wait until August and September to really get cooking. That is the prime time for hurricane development anyway. 2005 was just a very wild season and a season that I hope does not get repeated anytime soon.

I agree. I don't expect anything significant to develop until Aug/Sept. timeframe. But I would not rule it out completely. Anyway,I hope we never see another 2005 type season again.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This season is borning...Even the eastern Pacific season which you would not expect to be this way is.

[HouTXmetro]

Be Carefull for what you ask for, you just might get it!

[cycloneye]

This season is borning...Even the eastern Pacific season which you would not expect to be this way is.

June and July are normally quiet months.Wait until the peak months August and September and you will be tracking many cyclones in the Atlantic and the EPAC.

[Frank P]

Be Carefull for what you ask for, you just might get it!

I'm just praying for a really quiet year... I hope it stays quiet and everyone is just BORED TO DEATH, I hope the shear never lets up....... sorry gang but after you lose everything you own it just changes your perspective on the tropics...Boring is the new synergy that I'm looking for this season... hopefully all the posters that are so bored won't every have to understand what I'm talking about either... the ones devastated from Katrina understand I guarantee....

[boca]

Hey I've been tracking ULL and I even have a thread on the one north of PR. Thats how bored I am which is a good thing.

[hazmat]

Frank P...best post I've ever read here or on any other tropical board.

With age comes experience & wisdom gained from that experience.

[Stormcenter]

Be Carefull for what you ask for, you just might get it!

I'm just praying for a really quiet year... I hope it stays quiet and everyone is just BORED TO DEATH, I hope the shear never lets up....... sorry gang but after you lose everything you own it just changes your perspective on the tropics...Boring is the new synergy that I'm looking for this season... hopefully all the posters that are so bored won't every have to understand what I'm talking about either... the ones devastated from Katrina understand I guarantee....

A boring 2006 season has my vote too.