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DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY...AS LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES AND U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH THUNDERSTORMS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA/GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GENERALLY
YIELD VERY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS.
...MS/AL/WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL...
VERY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS...AND NEAR-CRITICAL MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25-35
PERCENT. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND ACROSS THIS
REGION THIS WEEKEND...A TREND REFLECTED BY OBSERVED KBDI VALUES
INCREASING TO 550-700 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT /GENERALLY 5-10 MPH OR LESS/ UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE SPREAD.
...MUCH OF NV/UT/WESTERN CO/SOUTHEAST ORE/FAR SOUTHERN ID...
SCATTERED WET/SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WHILE SOME NEW FIRE STARTS/GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
VIA LOCALLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES/SUFFICIENTLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL CONTAIN WETTING RAIN. SOME RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS
LIKELY MITIGATED THE OVERALL DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS WELL.
...SOUTHEAST CO...
A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS AND GUSTY
WINDS WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
ENVIRONMENT.
...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
HOT/BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL THROUGH THE
90S IN PRESENCE OF A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE RELATIVELY
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO
KS...WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL BE
COMMON...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES /AROUND 15 PERCENT/ ACROSS
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
..GUYER.. 07/01/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE INTO SUNDAY...WITH GENERAL
PERSISTENCE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...AND
DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES/GREAT LAKES VICINITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.
...FOUR CORNERS/NORTHERN NV/SOUTHERN ID/SOUTHEAST ORE...
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN COMMON ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST A PREDOMINANCE
OF WET THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...NO FOCUSED
AREAS OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
...SOUTHEAST STATES/NORTHERN FL...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER...WITH DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY NEVERTHELESS APPROACH
CRITICAL VALUES FOR A SHORT DURATION. BROAD SCALE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 MPH OR LESS.
...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS KS...HOT/DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH /WITH
HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES INTO NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 90S...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT.
..GUYER.. 07/01/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006
VALID 031200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERN
STATES/ROCKIES RIDGING...WITH MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY EACH
DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. OTHER THAN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IGNITED FIRES...IT WILL REMAIN
WARM/RELATIVELY MOIST UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH LIGHT BROAD SCALE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH VERY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 07/01/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
