Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

[SouthFloridawx]

The reason I posted that info in the other thread Luis was because, that feature is the one that a couple models are moving it into the Bahamas. The threads title will eventually be changed to fit that topic.

Perhaps change the title to "Possible energy moving into the Islands/Bahamas in a few days?" Or something to that effect.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

As these waves come across they should slowly moisten the Air mass. With the models forecasting the tutt shifting into the western Atlatnic...Also means more faverable upper level shear. So its possible. But that central Atlatnic wave is likely to be zotted if it sticks its nose up.

[cycloneye]

The reason I posted that info in the other thread Luis was because, that feature is the one that a couple models are moving it into the Bahamas. The threads title will eventually be changed to fit that topic.

Perhaps change the title to "Possible energy moving into the Islands/Bahamas in a few days?" Or something to that effect.

Surely once a tropical wave starts to organize and begins to be followed by the models then a new thread is in order.I have to ask the poster that made that thread to then change the title.

[SouthFloridawx]

Reposting it back into this thread.


GFS brings a peice of energy with some vorticity up above the islands into the southern bahamas in a wnw fashion.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Ukmet also showing some energy moving into the bahamas during that time frame.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

8:05 TWD
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS. COMPUTER MODELS
FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY
AND PUERTO RICO PROBABLY ON SUNDAY.

[marcane_1973]

I was just pointing out that specific wave since it looks the best so far of all this season. Thanks for all your info you gave me SouthFloridawx. I understand what your saying there cycloneye. | Maybe if it holds together and the environment is right we can change the title on the thread to what SouthFloridawx said. I am not getting my hopes up too much yet. I still think its too early to look that far out in the Atlantic but as we all know in this active cycle we are in anything is possible.

[cycloneye]

LSU Image



SouthFloridawx,I think by looking at the latest image from the Eastern Atlantic the energy the GFS model has moving at 144 hours is that wave at 32w not the wave in front at 43w.

[SouthFloridawx]

SouthFloridawx,I think by looking at the latest image from the Eastern Atlantic the energy the GFS model has moving at 144 hours is that wave at 32w not the wave in front at 43w.

Actually if you take a look at this loop you will see it is generally the area in front as the previous poster had mentioned. The wave at 43w may not have a lot of convection associated with it now and is not as pronounced as the SAL is causing dry air in the mid levels not allowing thunderstorm development. But anway, it is the area associated with 43w.

If you notice the wave behind that one as you mentioned does show some vorticity as it moves towards the Northern Part of the islands behind the wave at 43w.



http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

But we all know that 4-5 days is a ways out....

[cycloneye]

Yup,South,Many things can happen in 4-5 days.The only thing to do from us is to keep watching how these waves do and the next model runs to see a trend.

[cycloneye]

A few tropical waves are between Western Africa and the Lesser Antilles but none are showing any development.

[brunota2003]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072100
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased in the ITCZ zone and with the waves tonight.But african dust also is in the Atlantic so no development for now.

[Nimbus]

There is a big upper level low near 22N -67W that would provide a lot of shear if it does not lift out. The ULL can't go much further west because of that mega front but it could lift out over time.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 080207
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

Plenty of convection in the ITCZ this morning with waves embedded but nothing organizing.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH MID SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 49W-55W.

[Aquawind]

Those waves have some nice convection going at the moment.

Couple clips from the 8AM Discussion..

MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E
CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
FORMATION.

Big Ole High Pressure

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif

Surface Analysis for the last 14 days

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_E ... _Day.shtml

[boca]

I think our pattern is finally changing to a more typical summer regime. These waves seem to have substance to them.

[canegrl04]

"These waves seem to have substance to them."


Yep.They aren't being zapped quickly anymore like they were a few weeks ago.By the end of July we could see our first td form in the central Atl.

[SouthFloridawx]

Those waves have some nice convection going at the moment.

Couple clips from the 8AM Discussion..

MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E
CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
FORMATION.

Big Ole High Pressure

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif

Surface Analysis for the last 14 days

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_E ... _Day.shtml

According to those surface maps/forecast it seems like they are expecting another trough in about 12 days to dip down into the southeast again. But, the main point that I got from watching it is that the Bermuda High/Atlantic Ridge will be firmly in-trenched for the next couple of weeks. We may see a couple of waves even reach florida.

[Aquawind]

Those are both analysis maps and have nothing to do with forecasts. The 14 day loop is of the past 14 days of analysis. No forecast information is given on those maps.

Although there is another wave expected to enhance precipitation this coming week in Florida.