Hilarious AFD's - Post them here!

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Hilarious AFD's - Post them here!

#1 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:35 am

OK I'll start:

The infamous Latin AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005

DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH HOW FAR NORTH TO TAKE PCPN ASSD WITH REMAINS OF HURRICANE DENNIS MOVING INTO LOWER OH VLY TUES-WED.

ATMOSPHERUM IN STATU QUO ANTE. ERGO...INFERNAE SOL ET TERRE EST, AD NAUSEAM. SO...LTL OR NO CHGS MADE TO PREVIOUS PKG. AREA TO RMN IN DOLDRUMS THRU MON (YOU KNOW YOU'RE IN A TRUE DROUGHT PATTERN WHEN THE MOST DEMANDING PART OF THE DAY IS TRYING TO COME UP WITH FRESH VERBAGE FOR THE AFD).


And the one written by Edgar Allen Poe:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 AM CST TUE NOV 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SPIRIT OF THE EVENING...IT SEEMED SINGULARLY APPROPRIATE TO
DIP INTO THE /ALBEIT SEVERELY PARAPHRASED/ QUINTESSENCE OF THE AUTUMN
LITERARY VERNACULAR FOR THE FORECAST DISCUSSION OF THE MORNING.

WITH APOLOGIES TO EDGAR ALLAN POE...



ONCE UPON A MIDSHIFT DREARY, WHILE I PONDERED WEAK AND WEARY,
THE NUANCED ATMOSPHERIC REALM, THE WEATHER YET IN STORE,
MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING, SKIES WERE CLEARING, WIND WAS
STALLING,
FREEZING MARKS WERE ALL BUT CALLING, RAPPING AT THE OFFICE DOOR,
FURTIVE FREEZING MARKS WERE KNOCKING, TAPPING ON THE OFFICE DOOR;
ONLY THIS, AND NOTHING MORE.

UPPER RIDGING ON THE MORROW, DREAMS OF RAIN SHALL TURN TO SORROW,
LIFT AND MOISTURE LACKING BRING NO STORMS LIKE DAYS BEFORE,
SUBTLE BOUNDARIES IN LATE MORNING, AT AFTERNOON ARE SEEN ADJOURNING,
"CONVERGENT FLOW!" THEY SCREAMED, IN WARNING: PREMATURELY HOPES DID SOAR,
TROUGHING IN THE ROCKY LEE THEN SOUTHERN WINDS HEREIN RESTORE;
BOUNDARY GONE, FOREVERMORE.

MIDWEEK RECORDS NEARLY BREAKING, NATURE AUTUMN'S NORMS FORSAKING,
AUTUMN WARMTH UNLIKE THE AUTUMNS OF THE DAYS OF YORE;
BUT THE PLEASANT WARMTH INSPIRES GROWING THREAT OF WILDFIRES,
"FATE!" CRIED I, "O FATE! THE SHIRES OF THE PLAINS THY HAND DOTH GORE,
PITY A DRYING LAND THE SHIRES OF WHICH THY STEALTHY HAND DOTH GORE!"
QUOTH THE RAINFALL, "NEVERMORE!"

COMES A BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTING FRIDAY, ONLY DRY AIR LIFTING,
DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A SYSTEM, TOO FAR NORTH WE FIND ITS CORE;
BUT LEE TROUGHING THEN RESUMING MONDAY NEXT SEEMS UNASSUMING,
SOUTHWESTERN SURFACE FLOW IS DOOMING DAYS TO REPEAT THOSE BEFORE,
DOWNWARD SLOPING WINDS REPEAT THE WARMING DAYS THAT CAME BEFORE,
BRINGING SOLACE NEVERMORE.

MODELS ON THE WHOLE AGREEING, PRECIPITATION WE'RE NOT SEEING,
POTENT SYSTEMS ABSENT MOVING ON THE LAND'S PACIFIC SHORE;
ZONAL FLOW IS DOMINATING, DRIER AIR KEEPS INFILTRATING,
LACK OF RAIN INFURIATING, "HELP US, NATURE!" WE IMPLORE;
WHEN WILL MOISTURE QUELL IMPENDING DROUGHT FROM HEREFORD TO LEFORS?
QUOTH THE RAINFALL, "NEVERMORE! (WELL, AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 7)"


Post any funny AFD's you can find here! :D
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#2 Postby weatherlover427 » Wed Nov 09, 2005 1:28 pm

The Amarillo one was hilarious :lol: ... I wonder what that forecaster was thinking when he made that AFD. :P

I had some other funny AFD's a while back but I can't find them off top. I'll let you know if I do. :)
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#3 Postby WindRunner » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:01 pm

Since wxmann asked for this to be revived, I'll put a couple other funny ones up that I have found since this thread was started.

This one just has a good one-liner at the end if you want to skip the actual AFDing part.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
336 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2005

.SHORT TERM....TODAY AND TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
A RESULT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S TODAY. A
GOOD STEADY WIND HOWEVER WILL MAKE TEMPS FEEL A BIT COOLER. CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THEY SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PREVENT WINDS FROM BECOMING CALM WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING INTO THE 20S ON THE USUAL COOL SPOTS.

10/ARM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO CHRISTMAS SURPRISES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT TODAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND MIDWEEK FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKEND. THUNDER LOOKS PROBABLE WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM. WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS
BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
EVENT. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN SOME
SEVERE WEATHER...A NICE LLJ...GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WILL HOLD OFF ANOTHER RUN OR SO BEFORE
MENTIONING THIS IN THE ZONES BUT IT LOOKS INTERESTING. AS FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BEING THAT WE`RE STILL 7
DAYS OUT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 35 KT LLJ WILL SPREAD 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BY THE
TIME IT REACHES PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...IT WILL MODIFY A BIT
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE WILL SEE SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL SUBDUE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE DAY WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60.

HAVE A EMOTIONALLY PLEASING NON-DENOMINATIONAL NON-SECULAR
GENDER NEUTRAL RACIALLY NEUTRAL LATE DECEMBER CELEBRATORY DAY...
(MERRY CHRISTMAS) ;-)

12/SIRMON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 46 33 53 33 / 70 20 0 0
ANNISTON 48 34 53 33 / 60 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 47 34 54 35 / 60 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 47 34 56 36 / 50 10 0 0
CALERA 48 34 55 36 / 50 10 0 0
AUBURN 50 35 58 36 / 30 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 51 35 58 36 / 30 10 0 0
TROY 50 35 58 36 / 20 10 0 0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12


Another funny Christmas one from Peachtree:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2005

.SHORT TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
TWAS THE NIGHT OF CHRISTMAS MORN AND ALL THROUGH THE WFO...A COLD
FRONT WAS STIRRING UP SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...HO HO HO. THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY PASS FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LOW...THAT WILL CAUSE SOME
MORE RAIN AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SNOW. ANY SNOW WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED TO THE FAR N LATER ON THIS EVE...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK.

AND WE HEARD HIM EXCLAIM AS HE DROVE OUT OF SIGHT...HAPPY CHRISTMAS
TO ALL OF NOAA...YOUR FORECAST WAS JUST RIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM...AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DRY FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE AND SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAIN
RAIN AREA HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTH AL
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW THAT MAY AFFECT US TODAY. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO AROUND BKN015 BY LATE MORNING WITH VSBY
IMPROVING TO P6SM...EXCEPT RISK OF SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RW
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA 50 36 49 34 / 30 30 0 5
ATHENS 54 37 52 31 / 30 30 0 5
GAINESVILLE 49 36 47 33 / 40 40 0 5
ROME 49 34 52 29 / 70 50 0 5
COLUMBUS 54 38 53 35 / 20 10 0 5
MACON 57 38 55 32 / 10 10 0 5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

BDL



And finally, in the continuing spirit of Amarillo -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE AUTHOR IS UNKNOWN AND MOZART POSSIBLY PENNED THE
MUSIC...I HOPE THEY WON/T TURN OVER IN THEIR GRAVES AS I BRING YOU
THE FORECAST DISCUSSION IN THE FORM OF..DECK THE HALLS!

MARK YOUR CALENDARS FOR RECORDS FALLING
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE CLIMBING
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA

RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WEST WINDS BLOW
FA LA LA...LA LA LA...LA LA LA
HIGHS NEAR RECORDS MONDAY WITH NO SNOW
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA

TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA
MODELS FLOPPING EITHER WAY
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA

EURO IS FASTER WHILE THE ETA KEEPS IT WEST
FA LA LA LA...LA LA LA...LA LA LA
NO FCST CHANGES AS OUR GRIDS LOOK BEST
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA

OUR RAIN CHANGES STILL LOOK SLIM
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE HAS BEST CHANCE TO WIN
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA

WEDNESDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE RAIN COULD FALL
FA LA LA...LA LA LA...LA LA LA
WESTERN PARTS COULD SEE IT SHOULD THE LOW STALL
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH SATURDAY
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA
ANOTHER LOW MOVES BY SOMETIME THURSDAY
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FA LA LA...LA LA LA...LA LA LA
FRONTS PASS BY WITH A REGULAR PACE
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA

FROM YOUR WEATHER SERVICE...ALL TOGETHER
FA LA LA LA LA...LA LA LA LA
KEEPING OUR EYES ON YOUR PANHANDLE WEATHER
FA LA LA LA LA...
LA LA LA LA

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO!
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#4 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:35 pm

Thanks WR... btw great avatar

I love NWSFO Amarillo, they always have the funniest AFD's. I believe one of the forecasters there is a member here.
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#5 Postby LaPlaceFF » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:57 pm

I guess that what they do when they have a slow day at the office....thinking up stuff like that.....not coplaining, though....enjoying it.
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#6 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Apr 23, 2006 7:09 pm

Hello, and welcome to "America's Funniest forecasting Discussions"! (AFD) :lol: :lol:

Those are hillarious!! Thanks for posting them.
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#7 Postby TexasStooge » Mon Jun 05, 2006 3:48 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
153 PM
PACKAGE WILL GO OUT IN ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO. I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS AS
FAR SOUTH AS BRECKENRIDGE...HILLSBORO...ATHENS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE CAP WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF
96...AND BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST
SITS ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS MOST LIKELY AND THAT IS WHAT
WILL BE IN THE ZONES...BUT COULD HAVE SOME SMALL AREAS OF
SCATTERED. OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS SITUATION. SLIGHT
AND MODERATE RISK IS NORTH OF US IN OK/KS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW HAIL/WIND PRODUCERS. ETA BRINGS OVERNIGHT/MORNING PRECIP
FARTHER WEST THAN GFS...SO HAVE MORE LOW POPS FOR THE METROPLEX
TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TUESDAY...THINGS LOOK DRY AGAIN WITH PLENTY
OF SUN AND HEAT. THERE IS A BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TEMPS LOOK JUST AS
HIGH BEHIND IT. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY
CHANGE. SURE FEELS LIKE SUMMER.
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#8 Postby gboudx » Thu Jun 15, 2006 8:41 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
420 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
420 AM CDT

CONSIDERING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY WAS A
REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN
SOME AREAS. THE RESPITE FROM SEASONALLY STEAMY CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR LONG-
AWAITED RETURN TODAY. AS UPPER TROUGHS BEGIN TO CONVERGE OVER
TEXAS...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL...
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS AS WEEKEND EVENT LOOKING AS
PROMISING AS EVER. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
SPECIFIC AREAS AFFECTED. MOST CONCLUSIVE THINGS AT THIS POINT...
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS SIGNIFICANT.
IMPRESSIVE PW VALUES AND PROFILES FAVORING TRAINING MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT. WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...SUCH A PROGNOSTICATION MAY SOUND OUTRAGEOUS. FOR
NOW...WILL REFRAIN FROM LIKELY POPS AND BUILDING OF ARK.


END OF EVENT STILL IN QUESTION. GFS SERIES RELUCTANT TO ALLOW
RIDGE TO REGAIN CONTROL. CANADIAN LESS PROGRESSIVE...BUT STILL
ATTEMPTS TO EXIT SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO EMPHASIZE UNCERTAINTY. 25
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#9 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jul 01, 2006 8:09 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
422 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
RUNNING LATE BECAUSE OF GRIDDED DATA PROBLEMS...I APOLOGIZE FOR
THE DELAY!


THE GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE FORECASTING A PATTERN THAT WILL BE
RATHER STAGNENT...BUT STAGNENT IN REGARDS TO A FAIRLY GOOD PATTERN
FOR RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE COMING WEEK. THUS...WE HAVE
RAIN CHANCES FROM NEAR 10/20 PERCENT...ON UP INTO THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE SEVERAL TIMES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY LONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR
DEL RIO...WILL ROAM SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO...WHILE A WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS IN THE COMING WEEK. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERABLE GULF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHICH OF THE DAYS IN THE COMING
WEEK WILL PRODUCE THE GREATEST RAINFALL. THUS...WE HAVE PRETTY
MUCH GONE WITH A COMBINATION OF THE NAM (OLD ETA) AND THE
GFS...WITH POPS IN VIRTUALLY EVERY PERIOD...FOR AT LEAST A PORTION
OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL BE TRICKY TO
FORECAST...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN OF RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
FROM DAY TO DAY.

INITIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN SOUTH TEXAS...AND SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS
EVENT LIKELY WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR
ISOLATING THE DAYS WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREATS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...ACCEPT FOR TIMES AND LOCATIONS
WHERE RAINFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.

RUNNING LATE BECAUSE OF GRIDDED DATA PROBLEMS...I APOLOGIZE FOR
THE DELAY!

I don't need to know that.
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#10 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Jul 01, 2006 12:12 pm

Quote:
RUNNING LATE BECAUSE OF GRIDDED DATA PROBLEMS...I APOLOGIZE FOR
THE DELAY!

I don't need to know that.


Not trying to be nitpicky, but the AFD's are also read by other NWSFO's for coordination, as well as spotters and emergency managers, so yeah, they might want to know that. :)
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#11 Postby WindRunner » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:40 pm

Well, this is far from hilarious, but it's about the best you can get out of Sterling, sadly (they're real strict up there - don't take public LSRs and don't have a sense of humor, except for this guy, Woody), and it's a good chuckle anyway . . .

FXUS61 KLWX 061845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
I DID SOME RESARCH ON "JUL 6 RECORD LOW-MAX TEMP THRU HISTORY"...
AND IT LOOKED LK TDA COULD BE IN THE TOP TEN AT DCA/BWI (#10 AT
BOTH - 77)...BUT THE CD FNT HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH OFF THE CST TO
ALLOW FOR SOME CLRG/INSOLATION AND TEMPS TO CLIMB BTWN 1-2 PM.
STILL A CHC FOR A TOP TEN FOR IAD..WHICH HAS A MUCH SHORTER PD OF
RECORD...83 IS IN 10TH PLACE.

WX CERTAINLY MORE LIKE POST LABOR DAY THAN POST 4TH. THE COOL HIGH
PRES BLDG IN WL CAUSE SKIES TO CLR TNGT AND ACTUALLY DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S W OF I-95 TNGT. IT IS RARE TO USE THE TERM "GOOD SLPG WX" IN
1ST WK OF JUL IN MID ATLC.
EVEN THOUGH NMRS STATIONS RCVD SGNFCT
RAFL LAST NGT...BLV W/ DRY NRLY FLOW FOG WL BE ONLY A NUISANCE PROB
TNGT.

HIGH PRES OVR RGN FRI WL ALLOW FOR THE PLSNT WX TO CONT. AFTR WHAT
MID ATLC RGN HAS BEEN THRU IN THE PAST TWO WKS THIS IS MOST WELCOME.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES WL BE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WX FEATURE OF
INFLUENCE THRU THE WKND. HWVR...FLOW MIGHTY AMPLIFIED UPSTAIRS...W/
SGFCT H5 TROF AT THE LEAST. BOTH GFS AND NMM MARK H5 LOPRES CNTR...
BUT NMM DEEPER W/ CLSD LOW. WDSPD AREA OF H8-5 LAPSE RATE 6.5C/KM.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT A CPL OF LT DAY SHRA/TSRA. CVRG ISOL...AND
CUD BE JUST ABT ANYWHERE IN CWFA SINCE UPR TROF AXIS OHD. BY SUN...
LOW SHUD BE LIFTING OUT...PLACING ISOL POPS IN THE E. POPS TOO LOW
TO APPEAR IN THE WORDED FCSTS...BUT WL BE IN THE GRIDS AND THE
DERIVED PRODUCTS. HV INCR CLDS IN THE GRIDS AS WELL FOR MID AFTN-
ELY EVE HRS. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

XTNDD...SFC FLOW WL BE SWLY AS HIPRES SETS UP SHOP IN BERMUDA HIGH
FASHION BY MON. H8 RDG BUILDS WWD FM ATLC FOR SOME TYPICAL SUMMER
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ABV THAT...FLOW FAIRLY ZNL...WHICH MEANS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUS...CHC
POPS RESIDE IN MANY FCST PDS. ENERGY TO THE N MAY DROP A BNDRY OUR
WAY COME MIDWK. WL SEE IT IT SURVIVES OR WASHES OUT FIRST.
&&

.AVIATION...
CHO/MRB WL HV TO BE MONITORED FOR LCL FG AFTR 06Z.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADDTNL MARINE CONCERNS.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...WOODY!
LONG TERM...HTS
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#12 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:06 pm

721
FPUS03 KAKQ 250019
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
819 PM EDT THU JUL 24 1997

...DANNY'S REVENGE...

HERE WE BE IN THE AFTERMATH OF "OH DANNY BOY" AS HE EXACTED REVENGE FOR
US DOUBTING WHETHER OR NOT HE WOULD PAY US A CALL. NOT MUCH GOING NOW
AS HE HAS RACED NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKEN THE PRECIP WITH HIM. STILL A
FEW PIDDLEY SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CORNER OF VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE SOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE THRU TOMORROW. MODELS OF NO
USE AT PRESENT SINCE REBORN DANNY RACING MUCH FASTER THAN THIS MORNINGS
RUNS HAD IT. DOUBT WHETHER WE WILL SEE MUCH OF ANY KICKERS OVERNIGHT OR
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE OLD STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL GET
SHOVED SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY ENCROACHING HIGH. PROBABLY CAN LET
MIDSHIFT WORRY ABOUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR TONITE...WOULD KEEP CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE AREA WITH FOG. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS FALL AND IF WINDS REMAIN ON
THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THINK LOW TO MID 60S BEST FOR AREA WEST OF A LINE
FROM TAP TO RZZ. MAINLY 65 TO 70 REMAINDER EXCEPT FOR AROUND 70 HAMPTON
ROADS AND NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. WINDS MAINLY N-NW UP TO 10 MPH.

COMPARING RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES WITH GAUGE REPORTS INDICATES RADAR DID
AN OUTSTANDING JOB...AND ITS NUMBERS CAN BE USED WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE.

TIS GONNA BE A STEAMY WEEKEND WITH ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AROUND AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 90. LET THE SAUNA BEGIN.

CWF: DO NOT SEE ANY REASON FOR ANY MORE FLAGS AS DANNY BIDS A HASTY
GOODBYE.

RIC...66/85/68 220
ORF...71/83/71 230
SBY...66/81/66 220
ECG...70/85/72 230

VALONE
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