EPAC: Invest 98E

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A nice deep area of convection has developed. I think this now deserves the upgrade!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 081023
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SAT JUL 8 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[SkeetoBite]

[WmE]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081623
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SAT JUL 8 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE WESTWARD MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. IF THE FORMATION DOES NOT OCCUR WITHIN THIS
PERIOD...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

98E, hurry up because your time is really almost out!!!

[CrazyC83]

It's a race now. It doesn't have a lot of time but it is almost there. Sort of like the almost-Beryl on June 27...(which still I think could be declared an unnamed tropical storm in the post-season analysis)

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 082240
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SAT JUL 8 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...BUT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW BEFORE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA



Time is running out.

[AnnularCane]

Sounds like the race has been lost.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like Bud will have to wait again.

[Epsilon_Fan]

looks like this one is gonna join the nameless swirl club in a bit

[CrazyC83]

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if we get Beryl before Bud...and that tells you the EPac is going to be quiet this year.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is sad

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 090336
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SAT JUL 8 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DUE TO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
NO LONGER BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[Ivanhater]

Ya know, the MJO is established in the EPAC and this is helping my theory that the MJO is not as influential as we thought, I had this thought last year when we saw cat 5s form in dry phase and nothing during wet phases

[cycloneye]

Ya know, the MJO is established in the EPAC and this is helping my theory that the MJO is not as influential as we thought, I had this thought last year when we saw cat 5s form in dry phase and nothing during wet phases

Agree Ivan.MJO is more weak than in the past years to influence in a big way.Right now the favorable wet phase is in the Pacific and what do we see out there? A typhoon that is weakening,a TD also in the WPAC and nothing more from the WPAC east of that TD to the EPAC.

[Ivanhater]

Ya know, the MJO is established in the EPAC and this is helping my theory that the MJO is not as influential as we thought, I had this thought last year when we saw cat 5s form in dry phase and nothing during wet phases

Agree Ivan.MJO is more weak than in the past years to influence in a big way.Right now the favorable wet phase is in the Pacific and what do we see out there? A typhoon that is weakening,a TD also in the WPAC and nothing more from the WPAC east of that TD to the EPAC.

Ya, good points

[clfenwi]

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if we get Beryl before Bud...and that tells you the EPac is going to be quiet this year.

I indicated in a postlast night, that I didn't think that the EPAC's drought would last much longer, and I'm even more convinced tonight... as such I would be shocked if we got Beryl before Bud...

Some of this is because of overall indications from the models. The UKMET text guidance, which had gone nearly a month without having any content, has had systems forming in consecutive 00Z runs. It's not the particulars that I'm interested in with them (i.e I don't expect either forecast to verify),it's just the fact that it is seeing conditions favorable enough to spin stuff up that has me interested. I think we'll get something on the east side of 110° within the next five days that'll become Bud.

A couple of satellite shots, first of the are west of 110&3176;, the blue area along 125°W is what's left of 98E's convection


But things are looking better to the east