Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (0604) at WPAC

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Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (0604) at WPAC

#1 Postby WindRunner » Wed Jul 05, 2006 6:41 am

At the very least it's a huge blow-up of convection. Looks like it might get interesting. Current position per NRL is 8.2N 146.7E - no visibles in yet on this one. They'll come tonight if it holds out that long.


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Last edited by WindRunner on Tue Jul 11, 2006 4:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby P.K. » Fri Jul 07, 2006 4:37 am

WWJP25 RJTD 070600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 40N 158E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 158E TO 38N 162E 38N 167E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 158E TO 37N 155E 36N 150E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 150E TO 36N 143E 33N 134E 30N 129E 29N 124E
30N 120E 31N 115E 30N 110E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 998 HPA AT 41N 151E
MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 132E 32N 132E
35N 140E 42N 142E 43N 146E 51N 157E 60N 166E 60N 180E 38N 180E 32N
155E 31N 140E 30N 132E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 48N 136E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 50N 175E SW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 11N 144E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E ENE 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 21.4N 127.4E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#3 Postby RattleMan » Fri Jul 07, 2006 11:53 am

TCFA issued, I think:

WTPN22 PGTW 071200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/071152ZJUL06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6N 143.2E TO 12.9N 137.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 070600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 142.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
141.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATERVAPOR IMAGERY, 070900Z
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, AND A 070833Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO SYMMETRIC CIRC-
ULATION. CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE LLCC AND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURB-
ANCE REMAINS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPO-
SPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 081200Z.//
Last edited by RattleMan on Fri Jul 07, 2006 11:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 07, 2006 11:55 am

Image

Image

TD 5W anyone?!?!?!?
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#5 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 07, 2006 11:56 am

This is awfully close to Ewinar. Possible fujiwara?
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#6 Postby WindRunner » Fri Jul 07, 2006 11:58 am

Note that it's following in the tracks of Ewiniar, only more northerly. This one should form a TS around the north side of Yap, instead of the south side.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:02 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 PM GUAM LST WED JUL 5 2006

PMZ171-072000-
YAP-
1130 PM GUAM LST FRI JUL 7 2006

......EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF YAP
STATES...

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF GUAM AND EAST OF YAP IS CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP...AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS CURRENTLY
RATED AS GOOD BY JTWC. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF YAP STATE...ESPECIALLY
TO THE ISLANDS OF ULITHI AND FAIS.

AT 10 PM GUAM LST...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 305 MILES EAST OF YAP...204 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
AND 140 MILES EAST OF FAIS.

THE CENTER IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST AT 4 MPH.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY PUSH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ULITHI AND FAIS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCASIONAL HAVE GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH.


$$

ZIOBRO

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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:16 pm

Image

CENTERS TOO FAR. FUJIWARA NOT LIKELY AS OF NOW.
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#9 Postby P.K. » Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:37 pm

WWJP25 RJTD 071200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 40N 160E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 160E TO 40N 165E 39N 170E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 160E TO 37N 158E 36N 150E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 150E TO 36N 146E 35N 140E 33N 135E 31N 130E
30N 125E 31N 120E 32N 115E 30N 109E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 998 HPA AT 41N 153E
MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 131E 32N 131E
35N 140E 41N 142E 46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 165E 60N 180E 37N 180E 32N
155E 31N 140E 30N 131E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 49N 175E SOUTH 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 11N 143E NW 10 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 40N 137E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 39N 170E TO 38N 173E 39N 177E 40N 180E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 22.1N 127.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#10 Postby P.K. » Fri Jul 07, 2006 3:40 pm

I still think this is the same low pressure area that was 96W and 97W, as well as now 98W. :lol:

WARNING AND SUMMARY 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 39N 165E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 39N 165E TO 39N 166E 39N 168E.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 168E TO 39N 172E 39N 175E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 168E TO 37N 165E 35N 160E 35N 158E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 158E TO 36N 152E 36N 148E 34N 140E 33N 136E
32N 130E 32N 124E 32N 120E 32N 115E 30N 109E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 132E 36N 141E
42N 141E 46N 150E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 32N 160E 32N
140E 30N 132E 32N 132E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 41N 154E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 49N 174E SW 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 11N 142E NW 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 39N 175E TO 40N 177E 40N 180E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 22.5N 126.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#11 Postby WindRunner » Fri Jul 07, 2006 3:45 pm

P.K. wrote:I still think this is the same low pressure area that was 96W and 97W, as well as now 98W. :lol:


Well this one and 97W were very close together, especially when 98W first popped up. I remember almost getting the two confused when looking at the JMA bulletin, trying to see if it was mentioned. I wouldn't doubt at all that this is the same low pressure area, but it is a different set of clouds :D
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 07, 2006 5:14 pm

Image

CONVECTION IS INCREASING. A DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TOMORROW MORNING.
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#13 Postby P.K. » Fri Jul 07, 2006 5:22 pm

We'll see as the pressure has been going up and then down again for the last few days. By the way if it does make TS strength it will be 0604 and not 0605 as in your graphic.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:05 pm

TD #5 IS HERE.

Image
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#15 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:06 pm

Thank god!
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:14 pm

NEW FROM WU!!!

Image

Now the plot all the storms in Planet Earth, before it was only the EPAC and Atlantic storms that got plotted!!!
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#17 Postby P.K. » Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:56 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 12.2N 141.5E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 15.0N 138.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
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#18 Postby P.K. » Sat Jul 08, 2006 5:10 am

Model guidance:

FXPQ21 RJTD 080600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 080600UTC 12.2N 141.5E
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 13.0N 140.2E +001HPA +001KT
T=12 13.4N 139.5E -002HPA +001KT
T=18 13.7N 139.0E -002HPA +006KT
T=24 14.2N 138.9E -006HPA +012KT
T=30 15.1N 138.5E -005HPA +011KT
T=36 15.9N 137.7E -009HPA +009KT
T=42 16.7N 136.7E -010HPA +011KT
T=48 17.3N 135.7E -013HPA +014KT
T=54 17.9N 134.8E -014HPA +017KT
T=60 18.3N 133.8E -019HPA +018KT
T=66 18.7N 133.1E -020HPA +022KT
T=72 19.2N 132.6E -025HPA +028KT
T=78 19.5N 132.1E -028HPA +031KT
T=84 19.9N 131.9E -034HPA +036KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=


WTPQ31 RJTD 080600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 12.2 141.5
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 080600 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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#19 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:38 am

Well, looks like we're going to have another strong storm here if the NWP verifies in the slightest.
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#20 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:57 am

Here is the Unisys track:

Image

:roll: Yeah...
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