Tropical Basin Indicators

[Sanibel]

Currently EPAC is showing deeper depth to its convective clusters than the Atlantic. Since we had Dennis roaring at this time last year we can safely say a direct repeat of 2005 conditions isn't occuring.

If EPAC is an indicator of Atlantic potential I would say we are in nuetral sort of mode for both basins, if I am reading the conditions correctly. Though EPAC has greater depth in its clusters it still isn't producing any significant cyclones and is definitely in a down phase as far as activity. Atlantic also has a weaker appearance to its convection from last year and a front-like trough is reaching into the Gulf.


The whole point of this is a scientific estimation that these conditions will portend a possible turning on of the Atlantic as the height of the season approaches. This should happen with warmer than average seas in a high cycle year. Of course the season will get more active, what I mean is the potential for the system train to repeat. Or even worse, more spaced big storms.



This opinion is soley mine and has no official endorsement or connection to the owners of Storm2k.

[Rainband]

Interesting thoughts

[brunota2003]

to add to that, isnt the wet phase of the MJO coming? thats why there are more t-storms in the EPAC right now?

[SouthFloridawx]

to add to that, isnt the wet phase of the MJO coming? thats why there are more t-storms in the EPAC right now?

Yes there is a wet phase of MJO in the EPAC. A fairly strong wet phase of mjo will enter into the Atlantic in 2-4 days.

[brunota2003]

to add to that, isnt the wet phase of the MJO coming? thats why there are more t-storms in the EPAC right now?

Yes there is a wet phase of MJO in the EPAC. A fairly strong wet phase of mjo will enter into the Atlantic in 2-4 days.

ok...thanks, I maybe finally be getting the hang of this MJO stuff

[SouthFloridawx]

to add to that, isnt the wet phase of the MJO coming? thats why there are more t-storms in the EPAC right now?

Yes there is a wet phase of MJO in the EPAC. A fairly strong wet phase of mjo will enter into the Atlantic in 2-4 days.

ok...thanks, I maybe finally be getting the hang of this MJO stuff

There is a mjo thread a little farther down on this page if you check it out someone posted a link that explains it pretty well. I would check it out if you have a chance.

[brunota2003]

ok...I will do that later then

[Jam151]

Currently EPAC is showing deeper depth to its convective clusters than the Atlantic. Since we had Dennis roaring at this time last year we can safely say a direct repeat of 2005 conditions isn't occuring.

If EPAC is an indicator of Atlantic potential I would say we are in nuetral sort of mode for both basins, if I am reading the conditions correctly. Though EPAC has greater depth in its clusters it still isn't producing any significant cyclones and is definitely in a down phase as far as activity. Atlantic also has a weaker appearance to its convection from last year and a front-like trough is reaching into the Gulf.


The whole point of this is a scientific estimation that these conditions will portend a possible turning on of the Atlantic as the height of the season approaches. This should happen with warmer than average seas in a high cycle year. Of course the season will get more active, what I mean is the potential for the system train to repeat. Or even worse, more spaced big storms.



This opinion is soley mine and has no official endorsement or connection to the owners of Storm2k.

I love it when people use big words, it always makes them look smarter then they really are. Your thoughts are great and i agree 100%.

[Dean4Storms]

THat is exactly what Sanibel is seeing, a wet MJO now in the EPAC. Along with that comes a couple of runs where models are developing TC's in the EPAC over the next week. As the MJO enters the Atlantic basin we will beign to see an increase in convection at least west of the Antilles with the SAL still playing a suppressing role out east of there untill at least mid-late Aug. We could see more of a home-grown storm by the end of July, if not more than one with this wet phase coming and fronts making it into the Gulf. The combination is not good.

I think we see two named storms by the end of July with the uptick beginning in about 10 days.

[Jam151]

we won't have any storms until august. People are just overating this season too much.

[mvtrucking]

we won't have any storms until august. People are just overating this season too much.

Hopefully not, but as Sanibel mentioned the indicators are there, for increased activity soon...

[Sanibel]

Well, one can never be 100% sure in the tropics.


I was mostly posting to discuss the subtle relationship between EPAC convection and Atlantic activity.

[CrazyC83]

I think we'll have 2 July storms - one in the next week or so, and the other one towards the end.

[Sanibel]

Bingo.


Look at EPAC right now. It has formed a string of curved disturbances. However, they are fairly weak.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Minus side to the lull is that the Ocean is given more of a chance to boil, and when a storm does form there will be no cool patches from previous storms to weaken at as much.

[Sanibel]

And it is starting to get muggy down here. It's just a matter of time now.


But the main point is EPAC is mimicking a strong wave train with thin systems. My point being the relationship between EPAC and Atlantic could see the trend swinging towards EPAC if this keeps up.

My theory - in a high oscillation year this means spread apart bigger storms instead of last year's flurry.

[Sanibel]

Today EPAC has the stronger disturbance but is still unable to make it bomb. This is sort of a nuetral EPAC/Atlantic condition where neither basin is active. Still, the lesson is that EPAC is the one lacking since it should have pumped out a few storms by now. But Atlantic has failed to produce the steady storms of this time last year. The conclusion still goes with Atlantic turning it up as the season progresses.

[bosag]

How bout we have no storms til August? Dh and I are going to Clearwater Beach for his birthday on the 19th

Barb

[Patrick99]

I think we're going to get some July action - it's just a matter of time. People should remember, it's only 7/11!

You guys said it - even with Bud, it's the EPAC that is lagging. The Atlantic's wave train was looking great in June...seems to have taken a break, but it will be back.