Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

#121 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:12 pm

Aquawind wrote:Those are both analysis maps and have nothing to do with forecasts. The 14 day loop is of the past 14 days of analysis. No forecast information is given on those maps.

Although there is another wave expected to enhance precipitation this coming week in Florida.

Got ya... I read that wrong. Sorry bout that. :lol:

#122 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 2:25 pm

Tropical Formation Probability

:uarrow:

The area in the Tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles according to this forecast has a somewhat good probability to cyclone formation.

marcane_1973 · #123 Postby **marcane_1973** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 2:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Formation Probability

The area in the Tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles according to this forecast has a somewhat good probability to cyclone formation.

I was just checking the satellite photos as well and that cluster is looking pretty decent for being that far east. It seems it has some of the best outflow of any tropical waves so far this year.

marcane_1973 · #124 Postby **marcane_1973** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 2:34 pm

Cycloneye what is the dealio with the blowup near the Bahamas today??? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

#125 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 2:36 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:Cycloneye what is the dealio with the blowup near the Bahamas today??? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

That is an upper low that has gained convection.But pressures are high in the area and no surface low is seen there.

#126 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:18 pm

Our little wave is showing some cyclonic turning near 8n 36w this afternoon and convection seems to greatest in that area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

caneman · #127 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:20 pm

GFS wants to develop it. See if it stays consistant. Any other models picking up on this yet?

marcane_1973 · #128 Postby **marcane_1973** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:40 pm

This is the best this central tropical wave has looked so far since it came off Africa. The showers and thunderstorms are starting to wrap around it on all sides. It looks impressive especially this early in the season that far out. This one might have a decent chance to develop into something if conditions are right down the road when it get near the islands. Ill give it a 50/50 chance.

#129 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:42 am

Well, the wave now at 66W crossed through here during the night, with plenty of thunderstorms (some loud) and some decent rain. It's now concern for flash flooding in Puerto Rico.

#130 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:43 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
821 AM AST MON JUL 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING...
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS
CAROLINA
SAN JUAN
TRUJILLO ALTO
LOIZA

* UNTIL 1115 AM AST

* AT 818 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOIZA...
NORTHEASTERN TRUJILLO ALTO...NORTHEASTERN SAN JUAN...NORTHWESTERN
CAROLINA AND NORTH CENTRAL CANOVANAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1846 6589 1832 6593 1834 6609 1848 6609

#131 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:48 am

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

A stormy morning here.

caribepr · #132 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:23 am

A DARK and stormy morning indeed! It isn't raining here right now, but went on with lightning and thunder all of last night as that wave went through. One gust, the one that woke me up, was recorded at 37 mph. Looks like PR is still getting the brunt of it as it moves northwest.
Stay off the roads, Luis!

#133 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:24 am

What direction are the winds coming from this morning? I would guess SE

#134 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:50 am

drezee wrote:What direction are the winds coming from this morning? I would guess SE

PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
900 AM AST MON JUL 10 2006

PRZ001-004-101400-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM TSTM 75 73 94 E10 30.06R

#135 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:56 am

I guess we should be careful here.... all information about the ACTUAL weather conditions in the eastern Caribbean are now to be posted in Weather Attic.

But, what the heck!

drezee wrote:What direction are the winds coming from this morning? I would guess SE

Drezee, E to E/SE last couple of hours.

#136 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:57 am

Yes at weather attic forum there is a thread about observations from the Eastern Caribbean islands.

#137 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:08 am

cycloneye wrote:Yes at weather attic forum there is a thread about observations from the Eastern Caribbean islands.

Not just observation, Luis. That thread was also where we posted discussions, watches, warnings, sat views, radar, and anything else that is "localized".

#138 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:10 am

bvigal wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Yes at weather attic forum there is a thread about observations from the Eastern Caribbean islands.

Not just observation, Luis. That thread was also where we posted discussions, watches, warnings, sat views, radar, and anything else that is "localized".

Surely,all that information too.

#139 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:48 am

The WRF wants to develop a Closed Low...

#140 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:51 pm

This is a good loop that goes back 2 days.Here you can see the upper low,tropical wave interacting with it and 96L.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html

Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

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