OK, my local Met said we will need to watch the GOM for development next weekend that may enhance our rain chances....here is some of the official discussion...thoughts??? How much will it develop? Is it a wave or the ULL????....any model threads would be nice.....Discussion is from Austin, TX!!!
_____________________________________________________________
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING MSAS DEPICTED A WEAK SFC TROF LOCATED
ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WAS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. WEAK EASTERLIES
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WERE INDICATED BY THE VAD WIND PROFILES AT
KEWX AND KDFX. THE EASTERLIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE FOCUSING OF CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL TROF. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO SAN ANTONIO AND EAGLE PASS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS STILL FCST TO BUILD EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT PCPN TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL BE ACTIVE. BY MID WEEK IT ILL BE HOT AND DRY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH.
GFS STILL TRACKS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
