Vigorous Central Atlantic Wave

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Ivanhater
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Vigorous Central Atlantic Wave

#1 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:23 pm

I think this wave deserves its own thread, it looks impressive today and is showing some cyclonic turning..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
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#2 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:24 pm

I second that. GFS picking up on it. Any word on NAM or others. I didn't see much on CMC or NOGAPS just yet.
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#3 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:25 pm

caneman wrote:I second that. GFS picking up on it. Any word on NAM or others. I didn't see much on CMC or NOGAPS just yet.


Luis and I were actually discussing that wave I think yesterday and noticed gfs showing some vorticity with this.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:27 pm

Agree about deserving a new thread although if it organizes more a new invest thread would be posted.By the way also if you look closely a small anticyclonic flow also can be seen.
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#5 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:27 pm

Always tricky with these this time of year. If they develop before the islands they usually spin fish and they hardly ever develop in the East Carib.
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#6 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:28 pm

I just posted the same thing over in the Waves thread, you stealing my posts Ivan? :lol:
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#7 Postby boca » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:29 pm

It has some spin to it as seen in the visible.
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#8 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:30 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I just posted the same thing over in the Waves thread, you stealing my posts Ivan? :lol:


Haaa, I saw the loop you posted and I thought, this wave needs its own darn thread! :lol:
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#9 Postby boca » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:32 pm

This have has a pesonality.
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#10 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:39 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I just posted the same thing over in the Waves thread, you stealing my posts Ivan? :lol:


Haaa, I saw the loop you posted and I thought, this wave needs its own darn thread! :lol:


It does look suspicious and at that low a lattitude it looks like a Carib. Crosser to me.
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:43 pm

The question becomes,Will it be mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook if not at at 5:30 PM then at 10:30 PM?
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#12 Postby whereverwx » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:48 pm

It's going to go poof IMO. Dry air's gonna kill it.

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#13 Postby mvtrucking » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:54 pm

Are we talking about the 66w 20n (about) wave?
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:55 pm

mvtrucking wrote:Are we talking about the 66w 20n (about) wave?


No,35w wave.
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#15 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:55 pm

calamity wrote:It's going to go poof IMO. Dry air's gonna kill it.

Image


Not necessarily, if it stays on a more westerly trajectory for the next day or so it should not be affected by the SAL. It's been firing convection with it all along.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby mvtrucking » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:56 pm

Got it. Thanks Luis.
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#17 Postby boca » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:56 pm

I'm not going to jump on this until it gets to the islands in the form as it is now at 35W. I don't think its going poof,just a gut feeling.
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#18 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:04 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I just posted the same thing over in the Waves thread, you stealing my posts Ivan? :lol:


Haaa, I saw the loop you posted and I thought, this wave needs its own darn thread! :lol:


It does look suspicious and at that low a lattitude it looks like a Carib. Crosser to me.


No doubt, I was just looking at some loops of last year, and the location of this wave reminded me of Dennis and Emily, here is a loop of the 2005 season around the time Dennis was forming, you can see Cindy moving through the gulf while Dennis was just a tropical wave like the one we have now , roughly the same location and structure, not saying this will be a Dennis, just some similarities.



http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... indy05.mpg
Last edited by Ivanhater on Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#19 Postby Jam151 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:28 pm

No storms till august. Time to step back in to reality. :roll:
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#20 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:39 pm

Yeah, this is a good looking wave. As previously mentioned, GFS is showing a healthy wave approaching the islands in the 48 to 72 hour range. Also, the Bermuda/Azores high is strong, but weakening slightly, which could allow the trades to relax a little. This combined with gradually lessening shear give this wave a better chance than other waves I have seen this season.

I agree with the Dennis and Emily comparison at this stage... they started as similar looking waves in a similar location.
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