Vigorous Central Atlantic Wave

[boca]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this system can stay south of the drier air to the north it won't go poof because it has some nice spin to it and I think this system has a descent shot at becoming a depression in 24 to 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

What do you think of wave, Cycloneye? It sure looks impressive....developing some banding features...some inflow...outflow developing.....low shear environment....SAL is well to the north of this wave....moisture increasing....does it have a chance though?

Not so fast my friend.Yes it's the most impressive wave so far this year,yes it has some anticyclonic flow to it,yes it has a weak cyclonic turning to it.However having said that,convection has to grow much more near the turning and persist for 24 hours,It has to deal with dry air,Marginal sst's until 50w and the trough to it's NW.So it's a waiting game for us to see how this wave evolves in the next couple of days.

[MGC]

The dry air to the north of this disturbance should not have any effect. Nice banding and some hint of rotation. Some potential here. Only negative: kind of far out in the Atlantic and kind of south. If it can gain some latitude.......MGC

[Ivanhater]

The dry air to the north of this disturbance should not have any effect. Nice banding and some hint of rotation. Some potential here. Only negative: kind of far out in the Atlantic and kind of south. If it can gain some latitude.......MGC

I agree, but what makes me wonder is it is in a location where most of the waves this early die(midway between Africa and the Islands), most waves this early look good just leaving Africa but when they hit the area our wave is now they fizzle, just the opposite with this one, and the GFS is showing this gaining latitude so we will see...

[boca]

The dry air to the north of this disturbance should not have any effect. Nice banding and some hint of rotation. Some potential here. Only negative: kind of far out in the Atlantic and kind of south. If it can gain some latitude.......MGC

Totally agree on that statement MGC and its early July still.

['CaneFreak]

LOTS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY AVAILABLE AND WARM SSTS....http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[Jam151]

I'm feeling lonely in the reality circle. Lots of you people need to stop coming to the forum until August or September and spend some quaklity time with the family. All you guys are doing is setting yourself up for disappointment when this system goes poof tommorw. Its the year 2006 which means its not 2005. 2005 was once in a lifetime type of active tropics.

[boca]

I'm feeling lonely in the reality circle. Lots of you people need to stop coming to the forum until August or September and spend some quaklity time with the family. All you guys are doing is setting yourself up for disappointment when this system goes poof tommorw. Its the year 2006 which means its not 2005. 2005 was once in a lifetime type of active tropics.

Lets see what happens tomorrow with this system its the little train that could beat the July odds out in cape verde terrotory.

[MGC]

I'm at work Jam! I never get dissapointed when a disturbance evaporates. I wish they all did.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Ivan,let's make a quick poll in this thread.Invest by Sunday Morning,Afternoon,Tomorrow night,on Monday or no invest at all.

I say invest by tommorow afternoon.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,let's make a quick poll in this thread.Invest by Sunday Morning,Afternoon,Tomorrow night,on Monday or no invest at all.

I say invest by tommorow afternoon.

If it holds by tomorrow, I say a definite invest by tomorrow afternoon.

[Jam151]

Really doesn't matter if its an invest or not. They have made alot of really crazy invest this year so if this becomes one(and its likely) then it won't mean much. Looks like you gonna have to wait a little longer over their Cycloneye.

[Ivanhater]

Well, this is the most impressive wave of the season and looks better than some invests of the past.

[Hyperstorm]

The tropical wave over the Central Atlantic is a very interesting system for this time of year. I've been watching this system for a while and it started getting my attention yesterday when we saw extremely deep convection develop in clusters.

Right now, the system is located over warm enough SSTs (low 80*s) and under favorable upper-level winds. Movement of the system is not fast and quite normal for this area. This would normally suggest development of a system, but not so fast. We are in the month of July and there is another very important thing to factor: Dry air. This is the time of year for these frequent outbreaks of dry air across the Central and Eastern Atlantic Ocean and right now, we see a major outbreak of dry air just to the north of this disturbance.

There is something I always use as a hint, to see if dry air is affecting a developing tropical system or not. That is: Are we seeing deep convection firing during the nocturnal maxima? If we see that a system develops deep convective thunderstorm activity during the early morning hours (as is typically the case under favorable environmental conditions), then we may have something to be concerned about.

I can say that this wave is very well-developed for this time of year with great outflow and good inflow developing from the monsoon trough. Also, we can see good cyclonic turning, which gives any system a higher than average chance (since it is so hard to get any kind of turning going on in the first place). From what I can see, dry air is not significantly affecting it due to the movement of the airmass and system. However, I would wait until tomorrow morning to raise any eyebrows with regards to it. If we see convection refiring anywhere along the huge area of disturbed weather, then we can say that something is trying to develop.

No, it's NOT common to see systems develop in the Central Atlantic in early-mid July, but it has happened in the past. We may know in less than 12 hours if this one will join the list...

[Jam151]

yeah your right, i'm starting to question if i'm making the right choice staying in this reality circle, because it looks pretty damn good to me.

[canegrl04]

I agree.Invest by tomorrow afternoon Lets find out if it can make it past the invest stage.If it can become a td,I say we have Beryl in this system

[gatorcane]

Well, this is the most impressive wave of the season and looks better than some invests of the past.

well it does look rather impressive, even several hours after I looked at it....but it needs to develop before reaching the leeward islands.

Statistically if a system does not develop before reaching the islands, it does not develop.

[cycloneye]

The tropical wave over the Central Atlantic is a very interesting system for this time of year. I've been watching this system for a while and it has gotten my attention since yesterday.

Right now, the system is located over warm enough SSTs (low 80*s) and under favorable upper-level winds. Movement of the system is not fast and quite normal for this area. This would normally suggest development of a system, but not so fast. We are in the month of July and there is another very important thing to factor: Dry air. This is the time of year for these frequent outbreaks of dry air across the Central and Eastern Atlantic Ocean and right now, we see a major outbreak of dry air just to the north of this disturbance.

There is something I always use as a hint, to see if dry air is affecting a developing tropical system or not. That is: Are we seeing deep convection firing during the nocturnal maxima? If we see that a system develops deep convective thunderstorm activity during the early morning hours (as is typically the case under favorable environmental conditions), then we may have something to be concerned about.

I can say that this wave is very well-developed for this time of year with great outflow and good inflow developing. From what I can see, dry air is not significantly affecting it due to the movement of the airmass and system. However, I would wait until tomorrow morning to raise any eyebrows with regards to it. If we see convection refiring anywhere along the huge area of disturbed weather, then we can say that something is trying to develop.

No, it's NOT common to see systems develop in the Central Atlantic in early-mid July, but it has happened in the past. We may know in less than 12 hours if this one will join the list...

That is a complete anaylisis of all the factors for this wave.As always,Hyperstorm,thanks for your always good discussions during the past few years and continuing them in 2006 to help us understand what is going on.

[Ivanhater]

Well, this is the most impressive wave of the season and looks better than some invests of the past.

well it does look rather impressive, even several hours after I looked at it....but it needs to develop before reaching the leeward islands.

Statistically if a system does not develop before reaching the islands, it does not develop.

Yep, the infamous "Graveyard" in the eastern Caribbean, but lately that has not been the case

[Hyperstorm]

Thank you Cycloneye. I try to talk in an easy to understand manner for the benefit of everyone.

If there is any area to look for convection or center developing it would be near 8N, 39W where the greatest cyclonic turning seems to be concentrated.

July 8th...