12 north/107 west

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

12 north/107 west

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:56 pm

The system is a Itcz distrabance as of this moment. But has good shape with outflow convection to the south. I think this needs to be watched next.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

Cmc http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/66.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 12/58.html
Nogaps
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WindRunner
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#2 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:13 pm

Yeah, I'll agree with you there without even looking at the models. Definately has some potential.
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clfenwi
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#3 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jul 09, 2006 1:17 am

You can add the GFDL to your list...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 818/7.html

Should note that the models aren't picking on what's on the spot 12N/107W at the moment (there is a tropical wave passing by), but rather the wave that is behind that one, currently at 98°W.
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Jim Cantore

#4 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Jul 09, 2006 1:23 am

Intresting, looks like the GFDL is making a mild TS out of it.
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clfenwi
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#5 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jul 09, 2006 1:52 am

Check out the TC genesis probabilities...

Image

(from http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif)
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 09, 2006 2:13 am

Thats a 10 percent chance that is very very high for that.
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RattleMan
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#7 Postby RattleMan » Sun Jul 09, 2006 2:25 am

I've been monitoring xyrfpr.gif since May 6th, and there hasn't ever been a dark red square (10 and 12) this season until now (a single red square appeared 07/0000Z, and the two reds appeared 09/0000Z)
Last edited by RattleMan on Sun Jul 09, 2006 2:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 09, 2006 2:26 am

Maybe we could get a repaidly developing system soon?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 09, 2006 4:08 am

Look at what the nam develops not one but two storms!!! In the eastern Pacific. A old Eastern Pacific Atlatnic butt kicking!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#10 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 09, 2006 6:15 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091054
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SUN JUL 9 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
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