96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Here we go.Post away about this invest.

[bvigal]

Good morning, Luis! I expected them to put this up last night. But TWO this morning got my attention!

..."A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH."

[cycloneye]

Good morning, Luis! I expected them to put this up last night. But TWO this morning got my attention!

..."A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH."

Good morning to you.Yes that Tropical Weather Outlook opened my eyes too.

[caribepr]

I never like that "slow development" line. Unless you are baking yeast bread...

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060709 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060709 0600 060709 1800 060710 0600 060710 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 7.5N 39.9W 8.1N 42.8W 8.9N 45.6W 9.6N 48.2W
BAMM 7.5N 39.9W 8.4N 43.1W 9.6N 46.1W 10.7N 49.0W
A98E 7.5N 39.9W 7.8N 42.1W 8.3N 44.5W 8.9N 47.1W
LBAR 7.5N 39.9W 8.0N 42.6W 9.3N 45.3W 10.6N 48.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060711 0600 060712 0600 060713 0600 060714 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.1N 50.8W 10.8N 55.8W 11.1N 60.2W 11.5N 64.2W
BAMM 11.6N 51.8W 13.1N 57.0W 14.1N 62.0W 15.3N 67.4W
A98E 9.5N 49.8W 11.0N 54.9W 12.3N 59.6W 13.5N 63.8W
LBAR 11.7N 51.0W 13.7N 56.0W 14.9N 60.5W 15.6N 64.4W
SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 36KTS 35KTS
DSHP 33KTS 38KTS 36KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.5N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 7.3N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 7.1N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First model plots for 96L.

Graphic

[bvigal]

I never like that "slow development" line. Unless you are baking yeast bread...

Hi MJ! Yes, for a first mention, that is significant. I definitely think we'll get some rain this time, and enough for me to quit worrying about the cistern running dry.

As for this current wave meeting ULL, the GFS local (BVI) is predicting seas of 3.2 meters by morning (10.5ft)! Sure hope we don't get that!

[ronjon]

Looks like the center of the circulation (MLC or LLC) is located under that blob of convection near 10N-38W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the cirulation is trying to develop under the flare up as you say. Near 10 north...Lets see if this thing can pull together or be another dud invest?

[ronjon]

Shear low now - a small uper level high pressure nearly over top of the feature. It looks to have a few days of good conditions to develop.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[drezee]

Nice Wind near convection per Sat: I don't see a well defined LLC though...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 06z gfs shows at least a strong wave...Maybe I'v seen weak systems like depression or weak tropical storms not be closed off in the models. So this is doing much better in the 06z then the 00z.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml

[drezee]

I am sure this is likely Bogus, but it is the closest ship to the system and well...NE win winds and pressure of 1007.2mb


09/09 V2BN9 10.9 -42.8 26.5 22.8 050 13 1007.2 0.0 27.7 V2BN9

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this is a strong wave...I say maxing out near 1005 near the lowest pressure area if thats right.

[drezee]

450
WHXX04 KWBC 091126
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 7.2 40.0 275./ 9.9
6 8.5 41.3 315./18.1
12 9.3 43.0 297./18.6
18 9.5 44.7 275./17.4
24 10.4 46.3 300./17.7
30 10.7 48.0 280./17.3
36 11.4 49.5 294./16.6
42 12.0 51.2 291./17.3
48 12.7 52.8 294./16.8
54 13.3 54.4 289./17.2
60 13.6 55.8 283./13.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 60 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Thunder44]

I never like that "slow development" line. Unless you are baking yeast bread...

That language sounds better for development than "development...if any...will be slow to occur". I just don't take statement seriously anymore.

[caribepr]

If I lived in NYC, I might not take it so seriously either...however, that is not the case in my neck of the sea

[cheezyWXguy]

this is crazy...if its already an invest then imagine how organized its gonna be at the durinal maximum...if it can fire deep convection over the center and hold it for a good few hours or so, this maybe TD2

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It will likely take about 24 to 36 hours to get organized for the nhc to upgrade. Unless the convetion fires big time and a LLC forms. In which there is no LLC yet. But a strong MLC firing near the convection at 10/39 and another where they say around 7.5.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41041



Bouy 41041 is located well NW from where the system is now so because of that pressures are relativly high although winds are fairly brisk from the east.Let's see when the system gets to longitud 46w where this bouy is if there are any changes in the data.

[cheezyWXguy]

from the TWD htat just came out:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 14N MOVING W 20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID SIGNATURE CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
34W-44W.

Looks like they changed it to low/mid instead of just mid...I think it may be forming a LLC, but the MLC(at least) is not covered and it very broad...ever since late last evening its been trying to form a broad circular band of convection around the center, and is doing abetter job now than late last nite