96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[kenl01]

Development, if any, should be slow to occur. With the shear in the Caribbean taken into consideration and the fact being early July makes any significant development unlikely to occur, especially beyond 36 hours. That's one main reason why models dissipate this system within 60hrs. Plus this system does not look very impressive given the broad nature of the wave and lack of organized convection.
It would have to do allot better than that before I'd seriously consider tropical cyclone formation..........

[Stratusxpeye]

I dont see why this became an invest... its just an open wave with only signs of a minimal circulation and very disorganized convection.

Have noticed this season that invests are more poorly organized than years past

Have to agree with that. Almost all invests this year except one have went poof. I'm not going to give this much though for awhile yet. Maybe in a few days if it's around.

[skysummit]

"Some" convection looks like it's trying increase in the 40 - 42W and 7N area in the last 3 frames.

[Ivanhater]

"Some" convection looks like it's trying increase in the 40 - 42W and 7N area in the last 3 frames.

Ya, Steve Lyons did say if a LLC were to form it would be on the southern portion.

[Ivanhater]

[wxman57]

I'll pull up a GARP surface analysis map and see if we can get any obs in the area. My first impression is that this is just a moderate tropical wave in an area of strong trade winds. Something to keep an eye on, for sure, but it's still a bit early for such systems to develop that far east.

Well, can't VNC to my workstation this morning. Looks like it got rebooted and VNC wasn't restarted. Have to wait for tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

I'll pull up a GARP surface analysis map and see if we can get any obs in the area. My first impression is that this is just a moderate tropical wave in an area of strong trade winds. Something to keep an eye on, for sure, but it's still a bit early for such systems to develop that far east.

Well, can't VNC to my workstation this morning. Looks like it got rebooted and VNC wasn't restarted. Have to wait for tomorrow.

I agree, I don't think this will organize until the Caribbean, more than likely just pulse for the next day or two, I am trying to get info on conditions in the Caribbean when this wave gets there, if you have time could you give a synopsis for this wave for the next few days.

[skysummit]

From the

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[jasons2k]

Interesting tidbit from NWS Houston office:

"MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE TOO
CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR."

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

It may be trying to organize right now, but its still just a wave.

[hurricanetrack]

I will put my money on the global models since none of them, 100% of them, do not show this developing during its track across the Basin. Climatology will win out with this system as it is too early for development this far east.

It is a healthy looking wave and it is exciting to watch but I really believe in watching the models for cyclogenesis (especially in the deep tropics) and when they all say "no" that really gets my attention.

In just a few weeks we should see the NHC forecasters say things like "environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development". Right now, it is just too early- or so it would appear. We'll see what happens but I would be very surprised to see this ever get a name. We'll have plenty of that going on in August and September.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Though the quote,"Development if any should be slow to occur" can also lead to some further development.

[wxman57]

I will put my money on the global models since none of them, 100% of them, do not show this developing during its track across the Basin. Climatology will win out with this system as it is too early for development this far east.

It is a healthy looking wave and it is exciting to watch but I really believe in watching the models for cyclogenesis (especially in the deep tropics) and when they all say "no" that really gets my attention.

In just a few weeks we should see the NHC forecasters say things like "environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development". Right now, it is just too early- or so it would appear. We'll see what happens but I would be very surprised to see this ever get a name. We'll have plenty of that going on in August and September.

One factor against development, at least now, is the fact that the Bermuda High is quite a bit stronger than it was this time last year (12mb, I've read). The stronger trades mean that waves will have a hard time organizing that far east. However, once upper-level winds switch around and blow in the same direction, the relative shear will drop and there will be a chance of development in the central Atlantic.

The GFS does show thunderstorms associated with the wave impacting south Florida in about 8-9 days as another cold front approaches the east U.S. Coast. That would point to a northerly turn around 75-80W of whatever is there at the time. The less it develops between now and then, though, the farther south the track will be. If it remains just a wave, which is most likely, then it'll reach the western Caribbean Sea the week after this. Now THAT area would be favorable for development by then.

[CrazyC83]

I'd give it a 20% chance of development. Too far south.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Increasing shear in the Central Atlantic should prohibit any development and the Caribbean doesn't look any more favorable.

[wxman57]

I'd give it a 20% chance of development. Too far south.

It's always hard to quantify a chance of development. Climatologically, (Hurricane FAQs), it's been stated that the average chance for development for any tropical wave each season is about 10-15%. Now that's an average of early (June/July), peak (Aug/Sep), and late (Oct/Nov) season development chances. Obviously, peak-season chances are considerably higher than 10-15%. So that means early-season development chances, on average, are considerably lower than 10-15%.

This appears to be a moderate wave with at least some convection - a plus for development chances. However, it's embedded in some very dry air and strong easterly trades - both negatives for development. So chances of development are likely a bit lower than 10-15%. I'd estimate maybe 1-5% over the next 4-5 days.

But if/when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea in 8-9 days or so, and IF it remains fairly intact (even lacking convection), then the chances for development would go up significantly, perhaps to your 20% estimate or higher. That's still an 80% chance it won't develop, though.

[Ivanhater]

[Derek Ortt]

it has more than enough latitude to develop

remember, if there is enough relative vorticity, development can occur very near or on the equator. Vamei formed at 1.5N and a couple of years ago, a storm in the Indian Ocean formed at .2N, basically on the equator. Total vorticity is planetary PLUS relative

[HurricaneHunter914]

And usually most storms at 96L Invests level do move into the Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

it has more than enough latitude to develop

remember, if there is enough relative vorticity, development can occur very near or on the equator. Vamei formed at 1.5N and a couple of years ago, a storm in the Indian Ocean formed at .2N, basically on the equator. Total vorticity is planetary PLUS relative

Oh God, bringing back some memories from last semester in Intro MET, isn't Planetary vorticity always positive or am I completely in left field, I should know since our teacher was physco and yelled when someone didn't know an answer