96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[JamesFromMaine2]

the NRL has the placement for 96L a little messed up! lol

96LINVEST.NAkts-NAmb-80N-400W

[beachbum_al]

I have an idea that a few of us are going to be up late tonight here.

[cycloneye]

the NRL has the placement for 96L a little messed up! lol

96LINVEST.NAkts-NAmb-80N-400W

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Backup site has it fine and updated at the 18:00z time.

[canegrl04]

Looking at the GOES 1/2 hour update sat image,it appears to have a couple of spots of convection that have gotten slightly more intense.The wave seems to be hanging in there okay

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Convection has increased over the "center" of 96L. Some signs of organization?

[rockyman]

If upper level shear does not change drastically, this system does not stand a chance of development...According to this shear map, shear is 20knots+ beginning at 50W all the way through the Caribbean and southern Gulf....What a difference a year makes!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Derek Ortt]

its just disorganized convection

lets put its potential I think it has for development in: If there was a threatening system in the Atlantic, I'd provide a week-end update on PNJ, instead of just the daily column. I am not providing a week-end update yet as I do not think this has a chance in Haites, at least before the islands

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2006 reminds me of 2002. With a strong tutt and 2003 for the east coast trough.

[cycloneye]

355
ABNT20 KNHC 092115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED ABOUT 1250 MILES
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Derek Ortt]

This reminds you of 2002?

ITS JULY! Shear is supposed to occur in July. Last year, we had about a 15KT easterly shear anamoly (meaning 15KT reduction of the westerly winds)

Last year was an abberation, the season will soon start to pick up. Give it a few weeks

[mvtrucking]

You can still see some turning here:




Easier to see from this sat loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Acral]

I expect we will see more favorable conditions for development over the next couple of weeks, and the system abt 1200 miles or so east of the Lesser Antilles will probably our first big "show" of the season.

[drezee]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

*edited by staff to make image clickable as it was too large

[Emmett_Brown]

Yes, while this wave is not overly impressive, I have seen weaker waves take off, albeit later in the season. As far as dry air is concerned, it has a fairly large envelop of associated moisture, so it could survive and reach TD status before the islands. Conditions are not all that hostile... I think it will gradually but inevitably intensify.

The big question is what kind of shear it will meet when it gets to the Carribean sea in a week or so.

[Jim Cantore]

Yes, while this wave is not overly impressive, I have seen weaker waves take off, albeit later in the season. As far as dry air is concerned, it has a fairly large envelop of associated moisture, so it could survive and reach TD status before the islands. Conditions are not all that hostile... I think it will gradually but inevitably intensify.

The big question is what kind of shear it will meet when it gets to the Carribean sea in a week or so.

The wave that formed Emily fired up real fast.

[caribepr]

its just disorganized convection

lets put its potential I think it has for development in: If there was a threatening system in the Atlantic, I'd provide a week-end update on PNJ, instead of just the daily column. I am not providing a week-end update yet as I do not think this has a chance in Haites, at least before the islands

I'm going to assume you mean Hades, rather than what reads WAY too much like Haiti Which is way too close to us for you to be giving it a chance

[NONAME]

I heard a pro met say that The tutt that is causing the shear in the carribean is supose to move westward and leave with the Front in a few day. Leaving the eastern carribean with less shear. Not sure what pro met though.

[canegrl04]

If it is true the TUTT is leaving with the front in a few days,looks like we will be seeing something develope before the end of next week

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Convection is maintaining nicely. This might develop into a TD over the next several days, but IMO probably will stay under TS Status.

[cycloneye]

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 15N. A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AXIS IS NEAR 10N41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 39.5W-41W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KT AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. COMPUTER MODELS
FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY AND
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.

Above is the 8 PM Discussion about 96L.