Could Tampa Bay Be the Next New Orleans?

[HollynLA]

Holly, I'd be careful making that assumption. The levee walls that failed on the 17th St. canal, for example, failed with the water level 3 feet or more below the design standards. What happened to the vast majority of New Orleans was failed levee design. Let's not forget that.

Yes, I realize the levees failed, but they didn't just coincidentally fail at the same time of a storm surge, it was the surge that caused the failures and don't forget that not all levees failed, some were topped. I hear too many blaming the flooding in LA on levee failure. Well, what do you think caused the water to build up? The 17th St. canal is only one section that broke. What about St. Bernard parish and the MRGO. It was topped there. Believe it or not, NOLa was not the only parts of LA that flooded.

[AnnularCane]

The surge in St. Bernard parish was worse than it might have been otherwise because of the MRGO. As for the other levees, if they had been built the way they were supposed to, they should have handled the surge a lot better than they did. They just never should have breached, even with the surge.

[ronjon]

i don't think a trough would allow a hurricane to move NE with 175 mph sustained winds without some form of wind shear

True - one wouldn't expect a 175 mph storm with wind shear - nor are these strong storms very likely anywhere in the atlantic basin. However, remember Wilma last year. All the talk of how shear was gonna weaken her - she came ashore as a CAT 3. Sometimes, when the storm moves in the same direction as the shear, in this case NE with a SW wind shear, the effect is negated.

Tampa Bay will be the next great tradgedy I'm sorry to say. Over 1 million residents living less than 20 ft above sea level - many just 5-6 ft above sea level. People will be complacent - probably 1/4 to 1/3 will stay. Many elderly will be left behind. The bay bridges will be out of commission with tropical storm force winds - the approaches to the bridges will be under water with just 55 mph winds. Lacking a central authority - remember three large cities but many residential areas inbetween - local government response will likely fail. This could truely rival the scope of human loss even from Katrina. I've lived in this area for over 20 years - the common response I get when I tell them its gonna happen some day - ah, those storms are always over-hyped. They never hit here like in TX or LA. Are we in denial or what?

[AnnularCane]

i don't think a trough would allow a hurricane to move NE with 175 mph sustained winds without some form of wind shear

True - one wouldn't expect a 175 mph storm with wind shear - nor are these strong storms very likely anywhere in the atlantic basin. However, remember Wilma last year. All the talk of how shear was gonna weaken her - she came ashore as a CAT 3. Sometimes, when the storm moves in the same direction as the shear, in this case NE with a SW wind shear, the effect is negated.

Tampa Bay will be the next great tradgedy I'm sorry to say. Over 1 million residents living less than 20 ft above sea level - many just 5-6 ft above sea level. People will be complacent - probably 1/4 to 1/3 will stay. Many elderly will be left behind. The bay bridges will be out of commission with tropical storm force winds - the approaches to the bridges will be under water with just 55 mph winds. Lacking a central authority - remember three large cities but many residential areas inbetween - local government response will likely fail. This could truely rival the scope of human loss even from Katrina. I've lived in this area for over 20 years - the common response I get when I tell them its gonna happen some day - ah, those storms are always over-hyped. They never hit here like in TX or LA. Are we in denial or what?

Aren't there also a lot of people living on barrier islands off of Tampa Bay? That is the really scary part. I'm not sure it's even possible to get everybody out in time.

[ronjon]

i don't think a trough would allow a hurricane to move NE with 175 mph sustained winds without some form of wind shear

True - one wouldn't expect a 175 mph storm with wind shear - nor are these strong storms very likely anywhere in the atlantic basin. However, remember Wilma last year. All the talk of how shear was gonna weaken her - she came ashore as a CAT 3. Sometimes, when the storm moves in the same direction as the shear, in this case NE with a SW wind shear, the effect is negated.

Tampa Bay will be the next great tradgedy I'm sorry to say. Over 1 million residents living less than 20 ft above sea level - many just 5-6 ft above sea level. People will be complacent - probably 1/4 to 1/3 will stay. Many elderly will be left behind. The bay bridges will be out of commission with tropical storm force winds - the approaches to the bridges will be under water with just 55 mph winds. Lacking a central authority - remember three large cities but many residential areas inbetween - local government response will likely fail. This could truely rival the scope of human loss even from Katrina. I've lived in this area for over 20 years - the common response I get when I tell them its gonna happen some day - ah, those storms are always over-hyped. They never hit here like in TX or LA. Are we in denial or what?

Aren't there also a lot of people living on barrier islands off of Tampa Bay? That is the really scary part. I'm not sure it's even possible to get everybody out in time.

The barrier islands are located on the Gulf Coast in Pinellas, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties. There are probably 50,000-100,000 people living there. Fortunately, alot of them are tourists so they would be expected to leave. These communities would also be under water if the storm moved ashore north of them. The surge model posted under this thread shows more than 10 feet of water over these islands as far south as Sarasota County. The downtown area of Tampa - where all the sky scrapers are - is less than 10 feet above sea level.

[f5]

you have to leave a CAT 5's enviroment alone they are fragile creatures sensivite to atmospheric contamination which is a great thing beacuse insetad of having a few shingles blown off your roof you would have what Andrew did in Homestead and that is you come home to a pile of 2 ' 4s in your driveway

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My house is about 9 feet above sea level...I am by some ponds connected
to Tampa Bay (rounded canals), the water rises and gets close to
my house- floods the back yard in a 4 foot storm surge....If 4 feet of
storm surge floods my back yard and some streets that are the roads out
of my neighborhood...I would be very afraid to see what anything worse does.
I've had to evacuate from Category Ones...because it's dangerous to
stay at my house during a Category One surge due to flooding around
my area...and it can trap people especially if the surge is above the
Category 1 Level by blocking roads, etc.

This area is quite vulnerable- A thunderstorm, yes a thunderstorm moving
in from the southwest in February of 1998 along a cold front with wind gusts recorded at 75 mph on Clearwater Beach (a nearby beach within 10-20 miles of
where I live) led to a rapid rise in water levels that heavily flooded
the area- I'm guessing a storm surge of 4-5 feet from where the water
was.

[TSmith274]

Holly, I'd be careful making that assumption. The levee walls that failed on the 17th St. canal, for example, failed with the water level 3 feet or more below the design standards. What happened to the vast majority of New Orleans was failed levee design. Let's not forget that.

Yes, I realize the levees failed, but they didn't just coincidentally fail at the same time of a storm surge, it was the surge that caused the failures and don't forget that not all levees failed, some were topped. I hear too many blaming the flooding in LA on levee failure. Well, what do you think caused the water to build up? The 17th St. canal is only one section that broke. What about St. Bernard parish and the MRGO. It was topped there. Believe it or not, NOLa was not the only parts of LA that flooded.

I guess I just don't understand the point you're trying to make. Of course levees wouldn't have failed on a sunny February day.

I also don't understand your comment: "Believe it or not, NOLa was not the only parts of LA that flooded." What about my point made you think that I have a self-centered view of this disaster? Of course I know other areas flooded. I lost a home in lower Plaquemines.

And yes, I am aware of the areas that flooded due to overtopping and/or levee obliteration by storm surge. I was just making sure that you understand that we in New Orleans were guaranteed protection up to a certain surge height, and that guarantee proved to be worthless because the levees in New Orleans failed when subjected to a surge height far lower than design standards. That's ALL I was trying to say. They shouldn't call it a "Hurricane Protection System" if we can't count on them in the event of a hurricane.

[johngaltfla]

Hopefully, if this is the case, the Tampa area will have learned from the mistakes in NOLA, and all will leave with a threatening storm.

I'd never heard that Tampa was the most vulnerable area for storm surge though, but I did know that it was a high risk surge area. Can someone else chime in on this? Is that a proven fact?

But yes, the damage would be 10X greater than in NOLA, afterall, it IS Florida!!

Yes. It's true. No we haven't learned. Trust me.

[johngaltfla]

Tampa would probably never see devastation as did NOLA. Discounting the "Perfect Storm" hitting from the southwest and driving water up the bay, Tampa does not sit in a bowl, surrounded by a major river and low marshes as does NO.

Sorry. The USF profs have already run the models. A cat 3 could flood 10-15 miles inland. Consider this; most of the Tampa area is only 1-3 feet above sea level.

It would be devestating.

[Ixolib]

Tampa would probably never see devastation as did NOLA. Discounting the "Perfect Storm" hitting from the southwest and driving water up the bay, Tampa does not sit in a bowl, surrounded by a major river and low marshes as does NO.

Sorry. The USF profs have already run the models. A cat 3 could flood 10-15 miles inland. Consider this; most of the Tampa area is only 1-3 feet above sea level.

It would be devestating.

I hear 'ya John... Now living in this area, I've had the first-hand opportunity to see the congestion of Pinellas County, the low-level approaches to all three bridges over the Bay, and the huge full-time population out here on the beaches from Sarasota up to Clearwater and you are absolutely right. A Katrina-like hit in this area will make the NO/MS result pale in comparison. Devastating in every sense of the word. Add to that the fact that folks in this community have had virtually NO hurricane experience in decades, and the level of "true" preparedness and "real" awareness takes on a whole new meaning. If we think Nagin and Blanco had a problem with Katrina, I'd hate to see what the officials around here are going to have to deal with if (when??) the same happens here...

I know this graphic may be a little annoying and corny, but the truth - as you stated - is that there are MANY in this area who are woefully unaware. Most probably, there area many in SEVERAL areas who are woefully unaware...


As an aside, while Tampa may not be surrounded by low marshes, it IS surrounded by low mangroves and concrete, pavement, and new vegetation in newly-developed areas. All of those conditions will surely do little to slow or hinder a storm surge... Actually, low-lying marshes would probably bode better for the city.

[The_OD_42]

As an aside, while Tampa may not be surrounded by low marshes, it IS surrounded by low mangroves and concrete, pavement, and new vegetation in newly-developed areas. All of those conditions will surely do little to slow or hinder a storm surge... Actually, low-lying marshes would probably bode better for the city.

That is very true. Also, having been living here for almost 7 years, I have met some who have lived around Tampa for 20-30 years and they have said that there are so many new ponds, lakes, swamps and marshes being formed due to development. There are also many "hidden" ponds and rivers around here that if enough rain fell, (epescially if we were in a surplus of precip.) that those ponds would fill up very quickly and theres a great chance that thre are houses on them right now and these people have no idea...its quite sad actually.

[mountainspring]

Yes, it's true that if a massive hurricane hit the Tampa Bay area, it would be devasting. But the question is, what is the likelihood of this happening? I recall reading an article last summer that said it's actually not that likely that Tampa would be hit full bore by a CAT-3 or higher because of the curve it would have to make, and that Tampa is somewhat protected by its position. That doesn't mean it can't happen or won't happen, but it's less likely to.

I actually have no idea how likely it is, but considering I live 4 houses from the bay in the Tampa area, I sure hope it won't happen anytime soon. We are ready to evacuate, and quickly. We've got all of our papers together, we have hurricane bags packed, we have lists of hotels 30 miles inland that accept two large dogs, we have a doggy hurricane box ready complete with food .... So we are prepared at least physically, but I don't know about mentally.

[The_OD_42]

From what I've read and learned over the years, I think the water currents flowing out of the bay tend to turn more storms away from the region. I can remember one good example, Tropical Storm Harvey...1999 I believe. He was heading east towards Tampa/Sarasota in the Gulf and overnight jutted southward making landfall around Naples. I'm not 100% sure if the bay had anything to do with that or other storms, its just what I've heard.

[Ixolib]

Yes, it's true that if a massive hurricane hit the Tampa Bay area, it would be devasting. But the question is, what is the likelihood of this happening? I recall reading an article last summer that said it's actually not that likely that Tampa would be hit full bore by a CAT-3 or higher because of the curve it would have to make, and that Tampa is somewhat protected by its position. That doesn't mean it can't happen or won't happen, but it's less likely to.

I actually have no idea how likely it is, but considering I live 4 houses from the bay in the Tampa area, I sure hope it won't happen anytime soon. We are ready to evacuate, and quickly. We've got all of our papers together, we have hurricane bags packed, we have lists of hotels 30 miles inland that accept two large dogs, we have a doggy hurricane box ready complete with food .... So we are prepared at least physically, but I don't know about mentally.

Another 100 miles, and Charley might have been the one to dispel the notion of immaculate protection. But even Charley might not have brought the epic surge that is so feared because of his approach up the coastline, short-lived major status, and limited size, wind fetch, and duration.

As for being "mentally" prepared - you might as well forget that one!! But one out of two ain't bad...

[gatorcane]

I was travelling today, so just reading through this thread. Great comments. Let's just hope nothing hits Tampa anytime soon

[gatorcane]

Yes, it's true that if a massive hurricane hit the Tampa Bay area, it would be devasting. But the question is, what is the likelihood of this happening? I recall reading an article last summer that said it's actually not that likely that Tampa would be hit full bore by a CAT-3 or higher because of the curve it would have to make, and that Tampa is somewhat protected by its position. That doesn't mean it can't happen or won't happen, but it's less likely to.

I actually have no idea how likely it is, but considering I live 4 houses from the bay in the Tampa area, I sure hope it won't happen anytime soon. We are ready to evacuate, and quickly. We've got all of our papers together, we have hurricane bags packed, we have lists of hotels 30 miles inland that accept two large dogs, we have a doggy hurricane box ready complete with food .... So we are prepared at least physically, but I don't know about mentally.

Another 100 miles, and Charley might have been the one to dispel the notion of immaculate protection. But even Charley might not have brought the epic surge that is so feared because of his approach up the coastline, short-lived major status, and limited size, wind fetch, and duration.

As for being "mentally" prepared - you might as well forget that one!! But one out of two ain't bad...

Charley would have actually been weaker had it moved through Tampa Bay instead of 100 miles south over Port Charlotte. The reason is two-fold:

1) the shear was higher 100 miles north due to the approaching trough
2) Charley would have been undergoing an eye replacement cycle

Nonetheless, it certainly would have brought a decent storm surge to the area but the animation is for a CAT 4 and I am assuming it is considering a hurricane that is larger than Charley.

[Cookiely]

Everyone thinks all expensive homes are on the coast, but in Tampa near the Port there are a lot of people in the low income bracket that would be devastated by a hurricane. It will make the ninth ward look like Fairyland. Also, it doesn't take a hurricane to cause massive damage. We have million dollar homes surrounded by golf courses (which were originally low lying areas) and bayheads that contain wild hogs, deer, alligators and turkeys. An Allison type storm is all it would take to destroy these beautiful subdivisions. An El Nino winter caused massive flooding in the USF area so a slow moving storm would cause the entire area to flood. Anyone living in South Tampa knows we get major flooding from heavy thunderstorms on major highways, imagine trying to evacuate using South Dale Mabry especially at high tide. It once took me three hours to get home instead of fifteen minutes because I was trying to avoid going through areas that were flooded (I still ended up with the car floating at one point at the bottom of a bridge) and this was a garden variety thunderstorm. Last but not least are our government officials arguing who is in charge during a hurricane. I pray to God they have ironed this out.

[Ixolib]

As I see so often in these types of threads, folks bring up the issue of flooding as it relates to rainfall.

I would offer that it may be very misleading to think that the end result of a rain flood in a coastal community is in anyway connected to a seawater storm surge driven by a landfalling hurricane. They are truly two different animals, with the storm surge being much more significant.

In fact, I believe this is the reason why so many insist "they're not in a flood zone". True, one's property may never have flooded even in the heaviest of rain. But bring on a 30' storm surge and all bets are off. And this same theory applies to areas - even near the coast - that flood often because of rain. It is entirely possible those areas are well above 30 or 35 feet, but because of poor design, flood when it rains but will never see a drop of seawater in their homes.

In the more inland areas, where rain-driven floods occur, certainly that is an issue with the rain of a hurricane. But on the coast, rainfall floods are nothing compared to a storm surge.

Bottom line: On the coastline, and for a few miles inland, it may be unwise to confuse or compare a flood from rain with that of the storm surge of a hurricane.

As an example, Katrina's water problem was caused 100% by storm surge and had absolutely nothing at all to do with rain. Perhaps up-state or beyond, but not on the coast of LA, MS, or AL.

[HollynLA]

I

t will make the ninth ward look like Fairyland

Let's not get carried away with statements like that. i can only assume that you've personally been to the 9th? If so, you would NEVER make that statement.