96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[NONAME]

Well Now it does have a area of Surface low pressure

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You got to hand it to this system it has developed a surface low at 10 north/41 west. In has developed convection. But no signs of a LLC as of yet.

[NONAME]

So Matt Does this one have a little more going for it now???

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Very much so...Starting to develop a low pressure at the surface with convection over it...In a pocket of moist air shielding it for now. The anticyclone holding over it...But SAL is a problem which is likely to keep it from closing off for the next few days. Also eastly shear is likely to do the same.

But the convection is a big thing is whats helping it to form a low pressure at the surface, As the air rises the pressure at the surface lowers. The models do form something weak coming at the islands.

I will watch it for any sign of a LLC. The system at 13 north/108 west in the eastern Pacific looks to be forming a LLC.

[canegrl04]

WOW. I am amazed at how much stronger this wave has gotten over the day.More intense convection firing up.

[cycloneye]

Infared Image of 96L

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060710 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060710 0000 060710 1200 060711 0000 060711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 42.0W 10.4N 44.7W 11.0N 47.2W 11.5N 49.5W
BAMM 9.8N 42.0W 10.7N 44.8W 11.6N 47.4W 12.3N 49.9W
A98E 9.8N 42.0W 10.5N 44.0W 11.2N 46.4W 12.3N 48.6W
LBAR 9.8N 42.0W 10.7N 44.6W 11.7N 47.4W 12.8N 50.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060712 0000 060713 0000 060714 0000 060715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 51.9W 12.6N 56.2W 13.2N 60.3W 14.7N 64.1W
BAMM 13.1N 52.5W 14.2N 57.5W 15.2N 62.5W 17.0N 67.5W
A98E 13.6N 50.9W 16.2N 55.4W 18.4N 59.5W 21.3N 62.5W
LBAR 13.7N 53.1W 15.4N 58.5W 16.9N 63.6W 17.2N 67.7W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 35KTS 34KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 35KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 42.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 40.5W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 7.6N LONM24 = 37.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The 00:00z run of the models.

[Hyperstorm]

The tropical wave over the Central Atlantic is looking tonight like it is trying to slowly become better organized. Convection has been deepening over the past few hours and is showing signs of increasing in coverage. All of this is going on under what seems to be favorable upper level conditions.

As you may have noticed, the system is not moving fast at all (It has only moved about 5 degrees longitude in 24 hours). This tells you that the trade winds in the area are rather weak at this time. This has allowed the dry air to not impinge on the core of the system. Slow movement also means higher chances of seeing a closed low forming.

Apparently, we have a surface low pressure now right underneath the area of greatest concern (area where thunderstorms are deepening/increasing). The only hinderance at this time is dry air to the north and not much history of systems developing this far east, this early. Dry air entrainment is very hard to forecast, but current trends indicate the tropical wave is fighting that battle. If thunderstorm activity continues to increase/deepen during the night then a closed low level center could develop within the next 12-18 hours.

The GFS is forecasting an upper-level anticyclone to develop just east of the islands over the next 24 hours and it moves it toward the west. If that happens, the system will be left in an area that is conducive for additional development as long as it stays south of 15N.

Tomorrow should be interesting...

[cheezyWXguy]

great discussion, hyperstorm

[cycloneye]

Above is graphic of the 00:00z run of the BAM models.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

0000Z Models with 0015 IR Satellite

Image Created by Global Tracks

[Dean4Storms]

Just got back in off the boat, this wave looks to be slowly organizing to me. I agree with Hyper, the slow movement and the feeder band of moisture from the ITCZ looks to be helping this wave overcome the dry air. I see no reasons to this point to think that it won't slowly develop and possibly make it to TS strength by the time it gets to the Islands. At its pace it would give it at least 3 more days before it gets there.

[jusforsean]

Just got back in off the boat, this wave looks to be slowly organizing to me. I agree with Hyper, the slow movement and the feeder band of moisture from the ITCZ looks to be helping this wave overcome the dry air. I see no reasons to this point to think that it won't slowly develop and possibly make it to TS strength by the time it gets to the Islands. At its pace it would give it at least 3 more days before it gets there.

Gets there and then goes where????

[SouthFloridawx]

I know this morning people we talking about watching the southern end of this wave. I have noticed the the convection seems to be most consistent in the northern half. What you do guys think?

[Ivanhater]

Wow, I'm impressed with this system, today was an important day for it and it won the battle

[beachbum_al]

Now since it survived today and conditions were not favorable what is going to happen now to it. Are we going to see major storm in a week?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not likely...Maybe a 40 to 45 knot tropical storm moving into the caribbean. Then its only going ot be moderate even with the Anticyclone for strengthing.

[Ivanhater]

[Derek Ortt]

its still extremely disorganized with little indication of a CLOSED LLC. The band is forming a little too far east of the center

[cheezyWXguy]

it maybe still disorganized but IMO, its better organized now than last night...it has much deeper convection and also is a much tighter storm than last night