7-2-2006
The Jet stream is over the northern gulf coast. With a upper level Anticyclone at 26/95. Over the Distrabance. A surface trough is at 96 west off Mexico/Texas. A second surface trough remains off western Florida helping to blow some convection. A tropical wave is moving landfall over the Yuctan at 88 west. A ULL is at 30 north/100 west...Another is at 20/100. Which is helping enhance convection over the western Gulf of Mexico. Yes this can develop cyclones like grace,Fay,Alison,bill and many more.
A ULL is at 26 north/46 west is enhancing shear over the central Atlantic. While the trough is over the central Atlantic from 65 to the coast. With many short waves 34/65,35/70. With Ulls at 48 north/70 west. Another reiinforing 42 north/92 west moving westward.
The Azores high is at 36 north/53 west. I can see what the Cmc,Ukmet,Nogaps is seeing with the trough(At water vapor level moving eastward) But I expect the Azores to remain at least at 45 west/40 north. With more ridging at the surface level.
The shear over the western Atlatnic/Florida is being caused by the subtropical jet stream. With 50 knots at 80 west/28 north. But 5 to 10 knots over the western Gulf of Mexico...Over the distrabance. The Caribbean is very unfaverable with mainly 20 to 30 knot shear. From 30 to 45 west south of 15 north its pretty faverable shear wise. 45 to 60 west it lays the tutt with strong southwestly winds.
The Gulf of Mexico is moist while the caribbean is bone dry...Most of the central to eastern Atlantic is bone dry. With only a small area near 50 to 55 west where that wave is.
Surface-700 millibars
The surface flow shows that the high at the surface is bridged all the way across the Atlatnic. Only a weakness is at 75 west. With a northwestern Flow into texas.
500 millibars the flow is the same into Texas. With slightly more of a weakness of the east coast. Strong eastly sehar over the eastern Atlantic of 20 to 30 knots. Which should kill everything if the dry air doe's not get it.
400 millibars still shows the northwest flow into texas. This is a very deep flow. While still about the same with the trough off the east coast as the 500 millibars.
300 mililbars or about 27,000 feet you find a Anticyclone over Florida. With a northly flow into Texas.
At 200 mililbars you can clearly see the tutt.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html
The SAL remains Amazely strong west of 55 west. But not really west of there. Which if sticks around the western Atlatnic SAL wise should be very faverable. With waves not taking shape into the central to western Atlatnic.
The Gfs surface maps agree pretty much with the surface maps. With the Azores high at 36 north/53 west. Which is bridged with the southeast ridge at 32 north/83 west. A weak trough has developed on the northern side at 78 west/north of 30. Base at 20 north through the eastern and central Atlatnic. Which is not to unfaverable...If you went long trackers that is a good pattern(At least on the surface). Through the next 24 hours the trough moves to 45/70. And based at 35/80 on the bottem. This pattern has northwest winds/flow across the gulf of Mexico. A second reinforcement trough comes out of southeastern Canada by 48 hours. Which takes up shop over 80 to 85 west...At 36 hours a ridge builds over the plains/midwest. Which grows stronger through the forecast period. The Gfs shows a perfect base at 126 through 144 hours for long trackers. A trough is over the western part of the Atlatnic near 70 to 80 west(Late in the forecast period).
The gfs shows the jet stream over the northern gulf(At 200 millibars) things really don't change to much through the next 48 hours. But a strong trough doe's drop southward farther into Florida. Also a good part of the caribbean gets more faverable. But by 96 hours it shows a large tutt/trough over the central Atlatnic from 50 to 65 west. Which is proven to be unfaverabl this year.
The Cmc forces the Azores high back 42/48. Which seems a little weird. But holds a base across the eastern/central Atlatnic of 25 north at 48 hours. Belive it or not it develops a low pressure area off Florida at 72 to 84 hours. With a fairly strong trough to its north it starts moving northward. And then gets picked up by the trough as it forms a whole with in the two highs. The Azores strengthens at 38/40. Which is way east of the Gfs. In late in the forecast period it shows a strong trough over the western Atlatnic between the two highs.
The cmc shows the Jet stream(Subtropical) over the northern gulf. This is at 200 millibars. With a Anticyclone just southeast of southern texas near 25/96. A trough off the east coast is forcing deep shear move the western Atlatnic. The central Caribbean has strong shear being caused by the tutt. Which is centered at 28/55 west down to into the central Caribbean. The tutt is a long line of shear with many upper level lows.
Through the next 48 hours a Anticyclone forms over the Gulf of Mexico. By 120 hours a very deep/sharp tutt forms over the central Caribbean/central Atlatnic.
The Nogaps pushs the Anticyclone/Azores high back like the Cmc. But develops a weaker trough then then cmc later on.
Ukmet pushs the Azores high into the eastern Atlatnic. While taking 96 hours to build the southeastern high. with a large trough between over the western Atlatnic.
So the models are not really agreeing this morning. But think it should fellow closer to the Gfs surface/upper pattern. With a strong high staying more over over 50 west/35 to 40 north. But with a slow push back after 48 hours. While the midwest high forms stronger over the midwest.
1# Northwestern Gulf of Mexico blob...Which has a surface trough at 96 west. Which the windflow should lead this moisture into Texas. 26.5/97 west a broad spin. But even more interesting is a large area of convection to the south 23.5/93 with another spin. Over all don't expect development...Even so there is a upper level Anticyclone over this.
2# A wave making landfall on the yuctan...With should move across into the more faverable BOC. In which then we have to watch for possibe development. For one the flow is up of the northwest over the BOC/Gulf of Mexico. So anything that forms west of 92 west will be forced northward. So I give this 20 percent chance at developing slowly...
I worked a good hour on this so I hope you enjoy!
matts tropical weather thinking
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
7-3-2006
A ULL off 30 north/76 west is developing area's of convection over the western Atlatnic. I believe this is what the cmc is hinting at. But development if it where to would be very slow. You can clearly see how the trough is building southward...With very strong shear. The Anticyclone is at 24 north/92 west. Which is forecasted to slowly build westward. A ULL is over western Mexico at 20/105. A trough is reinforcing 38 north/72 west...Another wave distrabance is at 40 to 45 north/85 west moving east-southeastward. Which should reinforce this. A upper level low is at 30 north/47 west.
Shear levels over the gulf of Mexico because of the Anticyclone 10 to 20 knots over the northern Part. With the trough digging off Florida with 40 knot shear. Which has 30 knot shear over the western Atlatnic. 40 to 60 west very unfaverable with 30 to 40 knot shear from the tutt.
The caribbean remains dry...While the gulf remains moist with a upper level anticyclone. The wave at 57 west has nice moisture...But is dealing with alot of shear. The central Atlantic is dry...While the eastern Atlantic is becoming more moisted.
The surface/700 millibars shows a strong flow into La/northeastern Texas. With trough on the east coast only having affect to 35 north on the surface winds. At 500 millibars the trough has formed a hole with the two highs. At 300 mililbars you can clearly see the trough over the western Atlantic. With strong eastly shear over the eastern and central Atlatnic. At 200 millibars you can see the tutt over the central Atlatnic.
Gfs shows a strong Azores high holding in place around 36 north/50 west. Across the tropical Atlantic. With the southeastern United states high 32 north/82 west. A trough is over the east coast centered at 45 north/72 west. While another is centerd over the midwest at 95 west. A reinforment trough/longwave moves into the east coast by 36 hours. 72 to 84 hours a strengthen high over the eastern United states should then build in. While the Azores become very strong with a base through the tropics of 20 north. Centered 35 north. But a weak trough remains off the east coast from 72 to 144 hours. Which should keep southwestly winds shear over the western Atlantic.
200 millibar shows a upper level ridge over the gulf of Mexico. As forecasted days ago. With a trough digging off Florida, with strong upper level shear. A tutt ULL is at 28 north/52 west...Which the tutt go all the way into the caribbean. This is forcing strong upper level winds over the area east of the islands. In the caribbean...The gfs is forecasted the trough over florida to dig, and weaken a little. While a cut off ull forms in moves over western Cuba by 60 to 72 hours. The trough builds over the central Alantic around 65 west around 60 hours. Holding inplace north of the islands through 144 hours. So the tutt shifts into the western Alantic.
The Cmc is closer then it was yesterday. Meaning more agreement. But it also forms a low pressure area off florida, around 60 to 66 hours. Then moves it pass the outterbanks by 72 to 78 hours. Off long island at 90 hours...And moving into southeastern canada by 100 hours. This slows the briding of the two ridges down...But then it forms the bridge.
The main thing at 200 millibars is it forms a Anticyclone over it. Which is a big sign that it is tropical. Which at 54 to 60 hours as it takes it up the east coast. Also as it moves northward a trough/tutt deepens over the central Atlatnic/caribbean. With a trough moving into the east coast to drive this northward. Now this is just amazing a huge cut off ULL over the central caribbean by the end of the cmc forecast period. With a huge trough off the east coast.
This system will need to be watched, because the CMC has done good on forecasting tropical cyclone development.
Theres a tropical wave over the southern BOC...Which is showing no signs of development. Theres one at 58 which has good moisture but has shear. Do not expect development...Also on near 36 west...Which has a little more moisture with it but will hit dry air. So no development is expected. There is no interest area's today. But we will have to watch if something can get going off the east coast.
Enjoy
A ULL off 30 north/76 west is developing area's of convection over the western Atlatnic. I believe this is what the cmc is hinting at. But development if it where to would be very slow. You can clearly see how the trough is building southward...With very strong shear. The Anticyclone is at 24 north/92 west. Which is forecasted to slowly build westward. A ULL is over western Mexico at 20/105. A trough is reinforcing 38 north/72 west...Another wave distrabance is at 40 to 45 north/85 west moving east-southeastward. Which should reinforce this. A upper level low is at 30 north/47 west.
Shear levels over the gulf of Mexico because of the Anticyclone 10 to 20 knots over the northern Part. With the trough digging off Florida with 40 knot shear. Which has 30 knot shear over the western Atlatnic. 40 to 60 west very unfaverable with 30 to 40 knot shear from the tutt.
The caribbean remains dry...While the gulf remains moist with a upper level anticyclone. The wave at 57 west has nice moisture...But is dealing with alot of shear. The central Atlantic is dry...While the eastern Atlantic is becoming more moisted.
The surface/700 millibars shows a strong flow into La/northeastern Texas. With trough on the east coast only having affect to 35 north on the surface winds. At 500 millibars the trough has formed a hole with the two highs. At 300 mililbars you can clearly see the trough over the western Atlantic. With strong eastly shear over the eastern and central Atlatnic. At 200 millibars you can see the tutt over the central Atlatnic.
Gfs shows a strong Azores high holding in place around 36 north/50 west. Across the tropical Atlantic. With the southeastern United states high 32 north/82 west. A trough is over the east coast centered at 45 north/72 west. While another is centerd over the midwest at 95 west. A reinforment trough/longwave moves into the east coast by 36 hours. 72 to 84 hours a strengthen high over the eastern United states should then build in. While the Azores become very strong with a base through the tropics of 20 north. Centered 35 north. But a weak trough remains off the east coast from 72 to 144 hours. Which should keep southwestly winds shear over the western Atlantic.
200 millibar shows a upper level ridge over the gulf of Mexico. As forecasted days ago. With a trough digging off Florida, with strong upper level shear. A tutt ULL is at 28 north/52 west...Which the tutt go all the way into the caribbean. This is forcing strong upper level winds over the area east of the islands. In the caribbean...The gfs is forecasted the trough over florida to dig, and weaken a little. While a cut off ull forms in moves over western Cuba by 60 to 72 hours. The trough builds over the central Alantic around 65 west around 60 hours. Holding inplace north of the islands through 144 hours. So the tutt shifts into the western Alantic.
The Cmc is closer then it was yesterday. Meaning more agreement. But it also forms a low pressure area off florida, around 60 to 66 hours. Then moves it pass the outterbanks by 72 to 78 hours. Off long island at 90 hours...And moving into southeastern canada by 100 hours. This slows the briding of the two ridges down...But then it forms the bridge.
The main thing at 200 millibars is it forms a Anticyclone over it. Which is a big sign that it is tropical. Which at 54 to 60 hours as it takes it up the east coast. Also as it moves northward a trough/tutt deepens over the central Atlatnic/caribbean. With a trough moving into the east coast to drive this northward. Now this is just amazing a huge cut off ULL over the central caribbean by the end of the cmc forecast period. With a huge trough off the east coast.
This system will need to be watched, because the CMC has done good on forecasting tropical cyclone development.
Theres a tropical wave over the southern BOC...Which is showing no signs of development. Theres one at 58 which has good moisture but has shear. Do not expect development...Also on near 36 west...Which has a little more moisture with it but will hit dry air. So no development is expected. There is no interest area's today. But we will have to watch if something can get going off the east coast.
Enjoy
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
7-4-2006
This will be short because its the 4th of July!
A upper level ULL is at 25 north/79 west...Moving westward. This area also has a surface trough at the surface. A Anticyclone over the gulf of Mexico. With a strong northly flow over the eastern gulf of Mexico. The caribbean has strong wind shear. with another ULL at 32/64.
There appears to be a Anticyclone at 35/77. With a strong shortwave at 40/76 moving eastward. Another one moving into the great lakes area. A ULL is at 30 north/47 west.
The central Atlantic looks bone dry to 35 west. The leewards seem to have moisture. But very strong shear.
So nothing looks even possible for formation. Western Atlatnic looks moist. With most of the central/western caribbean dry. Gulf looks ok.
The SAL mostly has stayed east of the Leewards. Which is a good sign. Not for cape verde waves because of a strong SAL north of 12.
Shear most of the Atlatnic has it. With 40 knot shear near the leewards. The most faverable is the central/Eastern Atlatnic with area's of 10 knot shear near 12 north.
Gfs model shows a surface trough off Florida today. With a weakness to the north. 55/72 is where the center of the trough is. A high pressure area is forming over the northern Plains at 48/98. Azores high is at 36 north/40 west. With a base at 25 through the tropics.
Through the next 48 hours, the model forecasts the plains high to move eastward. With the Azores high to strengthen/move westward. Which by that time should be a thin trough off the eastern sea board. By 72 to 78 hours it shows a cut off, just to the east of Northern Florida/Ga. With the high building to the north. This area slowly gains strength through 90 hours. While not moving because of the to highs to the north bridge. At 100 hours the western high weakens with a weak weakness forming to the north. Which forces what ever this is to move northward. Pretty much it holds the azores high through the Atlatnic through the forecast period. With a northwestly stream still into texas later on the forecast period.
At the 200 millibar level we see the tutt down to 15 north/60 west. Northeastward to 30 north/48 west. With tutt ULLs moving southwestward enhanciing the upper level shear. A Anticyclone over the western Gulf of Mexico. With strong upper level shear over Florida. Also very strong over the Leewards. The Gfs forecasts this trough/tutt to tighten up and move westward. With A ull at 30 north/65 west. With strong shear through the caribbean. What ever that forms off the east coast is going to have to deal with very strong shear. So its likely to be extratropical. By 78 hours the tutt moves as far west as 65/70 west. With the main shear over the western Caribbean. By 100 to 120 hours the central Atlantic is pretty faverable.
Cmc quickly forms the area of low pressure around 48 hours. But with a stronger weakness to its north. Which moves it northward faster to just off NC by 48 hours. The high pressures never build to its north so it moves northeastward bombing into a very strong Low pressure area. While the azores builds over the eastern/central Atlantic. Another system like it buidsl at around 100 to 126 hours off the east coast. WIth a trough building it gets picked up also.
The Nogaps shows the whole. But builds what ever it is at around 40 north about 60 hours. Then aroudn 96 hours forms another one off sc/nc coast. WIth a small weakness to the northeast. But a strong high to its north. Which slowly moves northward through 120 hours. Then a weakness forms to its north shotting it northward. The nogaps forecasts alot weaker azores high later on. But with no troughs/weakness through the tropics(At the surface) which can be a good things for tropical waves to close off. Not moving to fast.
Personally I think the gfs has the best handdle on the over all pattern. Which should build a strong ridge to the north. The cmc also doe's good but not as good on the overall pattern. Nogaps is just another choice. I think the first system is likely to be extratropical. But the system after 96 hours that could get traped needs to be watched.
There is no area's of interest. Maybe tomarrow if that area of florida can get some convection.
So enjoy the fourth of july.
This will be short because its the 4th of July!
A upper level ULL is at 25 north/79 west...Moving westward. This area also has a surface trough at the surface. A Anticyclone over the gulf of Mexico. With a strong northly flow over the eastern gulf of Mexico. The caribbean has strong wind shear. with another ULL at 32/64.
There appears to be a Anticyclone at 35/77. With a strong shortwave at 40/76 moving eastward. Another one moving into the great lakes area. A ULL is at 30 north/47 west.
The central Atlantic looks bone dry to 35 west. The leewards seem to have moisture. But very strong shear.
So nothing looks even possible for formation. Western Atlatnic looks moist. With most of the central/western caribbean dry. Gulf looks ok.
The SAL mostly has stayed east of the Leewards. Which is a good sign. Not for cape verde waves because of a strong SAL north of 12.
Shear most of the Atlatnic has it. With 40 knot shear near the leewards. The most faverable is the central/Eastern Atlatnic with area's of 10 knot shear near 12 north.
Gfs model shows a surface trough off Florida today. With a weakness to the north. 55/72 is where the center of the trough is. A high pressure area is forming over the northern Plains at 48/98. Azores high is at 36 north/40 west. With a base at 25 through the tropics.
Through the next 48 hours, the model forecasts the plains high to move eastward. With the Azores high to strengthen/move westward. Which by that time should be a thin trough off the eastern sea board. By 72 to 78 hours it shows a cut off, just to the east of Northern Florida/Ga. With the high building to the north. This area slowly gains strength through 90 hours. While not moving because of the to highs to the north bridge. At 100 hours the western high weakens with a weak weakness forming to the north. Which forces what ever this is to move northward. Pretty much it holds the azores high through the Atlatnic through the forecast period. With a northwestly stream still into texas later on the forecast period.
At the 200 millibar level we see the tutt down to 15 north/60 west. Northeastward to 30 north/48 west. With tutt ULLs moving southwestward enhanciing the upper level shear. A Anticyclone over the western Gulf of Mexico. With strong upper level shear over Florida. Also very strong over the Leewards. The Gfs forecasts this trough/tutt to tighten up and move westward. With A ull at 30 north/65 west. With strong shear through the caribbean. What ever that forms off the east coast is going to have to deal with very strong shear. So its likely to be extratropical. By 78 hours the tutt moves as far west as 65/70 west. With the main shear over the western Caribbean. By 100 to 120 hours the central Atlantic is pretty faverable.
Cmc quickly forms the area of low pressure around 48 hours. But with a stronger weakness to its north. Which moves it northward faster to just off NC by 48 hours. The high pressures never build to its north so it moves northeastward bombing into a very strong Low pressure area. While the azores builds over the eastern/central Atlantic. Another system like it buidsl at around 100 to 126 hours off the east coast. WIth a trough building it gets picked up also.
The Nogaps shows the whole. But builds what ever it is at around 40 north about 60 hours. Then aroudn 96 hours forms another one off sc/nc coast. WIth a small weakness to the northeast. But a strong high to its north. Which slowly moves northward through 120 hours. Then a weakness forms to its north shotting it northward. The nogaps forecasts alot weaker azores high later on. But with no troughs/weakness through the tropics(At the surface) which can be a good things for tropical waves to close off. Not moving to fast.
Personally I think the gfs has the best handdle on the over all pattern. Which should build a strong ridge to the north. The cmc also doe's good but not as good on the overall pattern. Nogaps is just another choice. I think the first system is likely to be extratropical. But the system after 96 hours that could get traped needs to be watched.
There is no area's of interest. Maybe tomarrow if that area of florida can get some convection.
So enjoy the fourth of july.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
7-5-2006
Center of the surface Azores high is at 35 north/28 west. A surface trough is just off Florida this morning. A tropical wave at 32 west, has the most organized area of convection(Area of interest). A Ull is south of key west florida moving slowly westward. Centered at 24 north/80 west. Another ULL is centered over texas at 32 north/97 west.
A Anticyclone is over the western BOC, and mexico...Which is centered at 20 north/98 west. This area is moving westward which was forecasted good by the gfs. A weak ull at 30 north/65 west...A strong tutt remains over the leeward islands, with a strong flow of westly shear over the southern caribbean...Then moving northeastward through the leeward island into the central Atlatnic. Pass 50 west this area lefts to 15 north...Then lefts to 20 north at 40 west.
A ULL is centered over southeast canada at 50 north/76 west. Which is the core of the east coast trough. A short wave is moving up the trough at 42 north/76 west. Another is backing the trough southward at 38 north/88 west. A Anticyclone is at 34 north/73 west. Another ULL is at 32 north/44 west.
A tropical wave at 34 west has a good area of moisture...While the west of 50 west. The Central Atlatnic is mostly bone dry. The caribbean has dryed out of the eastern part. A large area of covnectin north of Jamica and south of Cuab has formed...Because of the ULL. The gulf remains pretty moisted.
Shear has decreased east of Florida...With 5 to 10 knots over the convection/Florida. The shear has increased over the Gulf of Mexico on the other hand. Shear south of Hati 75 west has increased at 30 knots. As the tutt is moving slowly westward...Just as the Gfs had forecasted. The central Atlatnic is pretty faverable west of 50 west. Not really with the dry air. In the fact that our tropical wave has eastly shear.
50 knot shear runs through the caribbean right now. With 30 knot shear has developed over the central Gulf of mexico. Because the Anticyclone is moving southwestward.
The surface/700 millibar flow is northward on the west side of high pressure area. While the gulf flow is more westward then southwestward. At 500 millibars shows a high at 25 north/65 west. Which is forcing the steering currents out of the north east of Florida. With strong eastly winds through the caribbean. Remember on the water vapor discussion above the winds where moving strongly out of the west over the caribbean. That was at the upper levels. The pattern looks about the same at 400 millibars.
The Gfs shows the surface pattern pretty good...It moves the trough eastward to just off the east coast. While the second high over the plains moves eastward. At around 95 west 24 hours. Now that trough remains there through 48 hours. A piece of energy/low pressure area forms off the east coast around 48 hours...So of SC/NC. The high pressure traps this area at 60 hours...It is not intill a weak impulse moves eastward over southeastern Canada, that a weakness forms to move it northward 72 to 78 hours. This area makes landfall over south New finland around 96 hours. While the high rebuilds to its south.
At 200 millibars the gfs shows the pattern nicely...Based on the jet stream being to the east of this system. Is very likely to be extratropical. While the Tutt moves to 68/70 west at this time.
Cmc agrees but pushs the system farther eastward. Near 65 west at 60 hours. This is beacuse of the weaker ridge its been forming. Then it forms a east to west ridge across the Atlatnic. I don't think so...The overall ridging appears to be like the Gfs.
1# Trough axis/ULL moving over Florida. This area is a area of convection east of Florida, with a surface trough just off the east coast.
Gfs 12z of the system.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 90_m.shtml
The Gfs shows a purely extratropical system...Which moves off the east coast as a nor'easter.
Nam 12z of the system
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_m.shtml
The Nam shows a more tropical looking system. But weaker. But with the shear the models show its likely to be extratropical. But its worth watching for a weak system to develop.
2# System out near 35 west...Should hit dry air in should not develop. But is worth watching.
So another hour another discussion(Over a hour is more like it). Hope you enjoy!!!
Center of the surface Azores high is at 35 north/28 west. A surface trough is just off Florida this morning. A tropical wave at 32 west, has the most organized area of convection(Area of interest). A Ull is south of key west florida moving slowly westward. Centered at 24 north/80 west. Another ULL is centered over texas at 32 north/97 west.
A Anticyclone is over the western BOC, and mexico...Which is centered at 20 north/98 west. This area is moving westward which was forecasted good by the gfs. A weak ull at 30 north/65 west...A strong tutt remains over the leeward islands, with a strong flow of westly shear over the southern caribbean...Then moving northeastward through the leeward island into the central Atlatnic. Pass 50 west this area lefts to 15 north...Then lefts to 20 north at 40 west.
A ULL is centered over southeast canada at 50 north/76 west. Which is the core of the east coast trough. A short wave is moving up the trough at 42 north/76 west. Another is backing the trough southward at 38 north/88 west. A Anticyclone is at 34 north/73 west. Another ULL is at 32 north/44 west.
A tropical wave at 34 west has a good area of moisture...While the west of 50 west. The Central Atlatnic is mostly bone dry. The caribbean has dryed out of the eastern part. A large area of covnectin north of Jamica and south of Cuab has formed...Because of the ULL. The gulf remains pretty moisted.
Shear has decreased east of Florida...With 5 to 10 knots over the convection/Florida. The shear has increased over the Gulf of Mexico on the other hand. Shear south of Hati 75 west has increased at 30 knots. As the tutt is moving slowly westward...Just as the Gfs had forecasted. The central Atlatnic is pretty faverable west of 50 west. Not really with the dry air. In the fact that our tropical wave has eastly shear.
50 knot shear runs through the caribbean right now. With 30 knot shear has developed over the central Gulf of mexico. Because the Anticyclone is moving southwestward.
The surface/700 millibar flow is northward on the west side of high pressure area. While the gulf flow is more westward then southwestward. At 500 millibars shows a high at 25 north/65 west. Which is forcing the steering currents out of the north east of Florida. With strong eastly winds through the caribbean. Remember on the water vapor discussion above the winds where moving strongly out of the west over the caribbean. That was at the upper levels. The pattern looks about the same at 400 millibars.
The Gfs shows the surface pattern pretty good...It moves the trough eastward to just off the east coast. While the second high over the plains moves eastward. At around 95 west 24 hours. Now that trough remains there through 48 hours. A piece of energy/low pressure area forms off the east coast around 48 hours...So of SC/NC. The high pressure traps this area at 60 hours...It is not intill a weak impulse moves eastward over southeastern Canada, that a weakness forms to move it northward 72 to 78 hours. This area makes landfall over south New finland around 96 hours. While the high rebuilds to its south.
At 200 millibars the gfs shows the pattern nicely...Based on the jet stream being to the east of this system. Is very likely to be extratropical. While the Tutt moves to 68/70 west at this time.
Cmc agrees but pushs the system farther eastward. Near 65 west at 60 hours. This is beacuse of the weaker ridge its been forming. Then it forms a east to west ridge across the Atlatnic. I don't think so...The overall ridging appears to be like the Gfs.
1# Trough axis/ULL moving over Florida. This area is a area of convection east of Florida, with a surface trough just off the east coast.
Gfs 12z of the system.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 90_m.shtml
The Gfs shows a purely extratropical system...Which moves off the east coast as a nor'easter.
Nam 12z of the system
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_m.shtml
The Nam shows a more tropical looking system. But weaker. But with the shear the models show its likely to be extratropical. But its worth watching for a weak system to develop.
2# System out near 35 west...Should hit dry air in should not develop. But is worth watching.
So another hour another discussion(Over a hour is more like it). Hope you enjoy!!!
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:09 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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gatorcane
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:7-5-2006
A Anticyclone is over the western BOC, and mexico...Which is centered at 20 north/98 west. This area is moving westward which was forecasted good by the gfs. A weak ull at 30 north/65 west...A strong tutt remains over the leeward islands with a strong flow off eastly shear over the southern caribbean...Then moving northeastward through the leeward island into the central Atlatnic. Pass 50 west this area lefts to 15 north...Then lefts to 20 north at 40 west.
Nice summary but don't you mean the TUTT is causing westerly shear over the Caribbean - UL winds are blowing from west to east?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
7-6-2006
A ULL is over southern Florida 25.5/80.5 moving to the northeast. This area has drawn in the energy from the surface trough that was just off the coast. Which has formed convection over the center of the ULL. Strong northly winds are pushing a ULL/low pressure area to the south over the western Gulf of Mexico. With a tropical wave at 84 west moving westward. Which is also adding energy to the ULL/surface trough to the north. Strong westly shear through the caribbean...Is being caused by a strong tutt, with a tutt ULL at 24 north/83 west.
The high pressure forecasted is forming over the plains/midwest...Which is centered 43 north/95 west. A surface front is over the east coast...Just off shore with a surface low at 40 north/74 west. With a strong Jet stream at the upper levels. Over the gulf this is droping southward as the high pressure builds in from the north. The upper level Anticyclone over the Atlantic is centered at 40 north/60 west. Which has helped to keep the northeast under rainy weather.
The core of the Tutt a tutt ull is at 24 north/63 west. With the tutt building into the Caribbean.
Whats left of the tropical wave at 44 west...Is now just a Low level area of moisture. Super dry air remains over the central Atlatnic from 45 to 60 west. With moisture air 45 south of 15 to the cape verdes. So things are becoming some what better. The Gulf of Mexico is pretty moist. With the caribbean(Western Part) under the tropical wave moist.
At the surface to 700 millibars strong south/southeastly flow is off the east coast. With strong eastly flow across the caribbean. A trough is over the east coast...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html With a high pressure over the midwest. This high pressure is the reason why every thing over the western gulf is moving southward.
Sal remains strong over the eastern Atlatnic. But has weaken over the central Atlatnic. A area over the northern Caribbean has formed.
The Gfs shows the surface pattern...With the weakness off the east coast. And the high over the midwest. The high over the United states builds over the east coast by 24 hours. In a area of low pressure forms off shore Ga/SC. The weakness lefts out at 36 to 48 hours. With a weak high pressure building to its north. The Azores doe's not change very much over the next 144 hours. With more high pressure over the east coast.
At 200 millibars the tutt is centered at 60 west. Which is forcing a strong area of shear over the eastern Caribbean. A Anticyclone is just off Florida east coast. The Jet stream remains just inland off the east coast. Which should steer anything just to the north or northeast. A strong ULL forms at 68 west/25 north. Along the tutt which forces strong shear over the central Atlantic. A Anticyclone at around 50 west.
At 48 hours this area keeps a weak Anticyclone over it. With the jet stream remaining just off shore the east coast. The ULL moves slowly northwestward. Off Africa a Anticyclone forms. 72 to 90 hours the tutt weakens back into the western Atlantic. With light shear south of 20 north across the tropical Atlatnic.
The Cmc sends the top end of the tropical wave/area of slight turning over the Yucatan. Which forms a low pressure aea over the southern gulf by 36 to 42 hours. While it forms a weak low pressure area just off the east coast. It forecasts the ridge to build to the north of the east coast system like the Gfs...At 54 to 60 hours. While sends this system just off the coast of Texas/Mexico. Making landfall at 72 to 78 hours. So these two area's are the area's of interest.
1# The area off Florida...A MLC appears to have formed just of the coast at 26 north/79.5. This MLC is moving northward. Surface obs are showing southwest winds blowing into it from the south side, but winds are still flowing westward across the northern side. Which means that there is no surface cirulation yet. Strong convection has formed over the eastern side.
2# Western Caribbean system. The top part of the wave near 20 north is moving westard. Which needs to be a area of focuse because of the CMC trys to form a cyclone over the gulf. This is what you call a split the northern side feeds into the ULL/trough off the east coast, and the other moves with the tropical wave. A broad MLC is centered near 18 north/76.5.
3# A broad MLC is moving southward into the western Gulf. Near 25.5/94.5. This area has fired up some popcorn convection. But is not likely to develop because of strong upper level shear coming down from the high over the midwest. We will need to watch it. If it can help to traport the energy from the western Caribbean wave into it.
This shows the east coast system moving northeastward.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
The Nam shows the area of low pressure off the east coast. Which slowly moves north or northeastward. While doe's not show anything developing over the gulf.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
What sets up the gulf system is the western Gulf area of low pressure breaking heat across into the Gulf. Then a system forming just off the other side of the Yuctan. So there is some chance for some tropical cyclone formation.
The system off the east coast has some chance for subtropical or tropical development. What is most likely to happen is it will be extratropical. But if it moves slowly with a strengthing high to the north the better chance it will be tropical. If the weakness picks up it most likely to be extratropical.
So have a good day...
A ULL is over southern Florida 25.5/80.5 moving to the northeast. This area has drawn in the energy from the surface trough that was just off the coast. Which has formed convection over the center of the ULL. Strong northly winds are pushing a ULL/low pressure area to the south over the western Gulf of Mexico. With a tropical wave at 84 west moving westward. Which is also adding energy to the ULL/surface trough to the north. Strong westly shear through the caribbean...Is being caused by a strong tutt, with a tutt ULL at 24 north/83 west.
The high pressure forecasted is forming over the plains/midwest...Which is centered 43 north/95 west. A surface front is over the east coast...Just off shore with a surface low at 40 north/74 west. With a strong Jet stream at the upper levels. Over the gulf this is droping southward as the high pressure builds in from the north. The upper level Anticyclone over the Atlantic is centered at 40 north/60 west. Which has helped to keep the northeast under rainy weather.
The core of the Tutt a tutt ull is at 24 north/63 west. With the tutt building into the Caribbean.
Whats left of the tropical wave at 44 west...Is now just a Low level area of moisture. Super dry air remains over the central Atlatnic from 45 to 60 west. With moisture air 45 south of 15 to the cape verdes. So things are becoming some what better. The Gulf of Mexico is pretty moist. With the caribbean(Western Part) under the tropical wave moist.
At the surface to 700 millibars strong south/southeastly flow is off the east coast. With strong eastly flow across the caribbean. A trough is over the east coast...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html With a high pressure over the midwest. This high pressure is the reason why every thing over the western gulf is moving southward.
Sal remains strong over the eastern Atlatnic. But has weaken over the central Atlatnic. A area over the northern Caribbean has formed.
The Gfs shows the surface pattern...With the weakness off the east coast. And the high over the midwest. The high over the United states builds over the east coast by 24 hours. In a area of low pressure forms off shore Ga/SC. The weakness lefts out at 36 to 48 hours. With a weak high pressure building to its north. The Azores doe's not change very much over the next 144 hours. With more high pressure over the east coast.
At 200 millibars the tutt is centered at 60 west. Which is forcing a strong area of shear over the eastern Caribbean. A Anticyclone is just off Florida east coast. The Jet stream remains just inland off the east coast. Which should steer anything just to the north or northeast. A strong ULL forms at 68 west/25 north. Along the tutt which forces strong shear over the central Atlantic. A Anticyclone at around 50 west.
At 48 hours this area keeps a weak Anticyclone over it. With the jet stream remaining just off shore the east coast. The ULL moves slowly northwestward. Off Africa a Anticyclone forms. 72 to 90 hours the tutt weakens back into the western Atlantic. With light shear south of 20 north across the tropical Atlatnic.
The Cmc sends the top end of the tropical wave/area of slight turning over the Yucatan. Which forms a low pressure aea over the southern gulf by 36 to 42 hours. While it forms a weak low pressure area just off the east coast. It forecasts the ridge to build to the north of the east coast system like the Gfs...At 54 to 60 hours. While sends this system just off the coast of Texas/Mexico. Making landfall at 72 to 78 hours. So these two area's are the area's of interest.
1# The area off Florida...A MLC appears to have formed just of the coast at 26 north/79.5. This MLC is moving northward. Surface obs are showing southwest winds blowing into it from the south side, but winds are still flowing westward across the northern side. Which means that there is no surface cirulation yet. Strong convection has formed over the eastern side.
2# Western Caribbean system. The top part of the wave near 20 north is moving westard. Which needs to be a area of focuse because of the CMC trys to form a cyclone over the gulf. This is what you call a split the northern side feeds into the ULL/trough off the east coast, and the other moves with the tropical wave. A broad MLC is centered near 18 north/76.5.
3# A broad MLC is moving southward into the western Gulf. Near 25.5/94.5. This area has fired up some popcorn convection. But is not likely to develop because of strong upper level shear coming down from the high over the midwest. We will need to watch it. If it can help to traport the energy from the western Caribbean wave into it.
This shows the east coast system moving northeastward.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
The Nam shows the area of low pressure off the east coast. Which slowly moves north or northeastward. While doe's not show anything developing over the gulf.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
What sets up the gulf system is the western Gulf area of low pressure breaking heat across into the Gulf. Then a system forming just off the other side of the Yuctan. So there is some chance for some tropical cyclone formation.
The system off the east coast has some chance for subtropical or tropical development. What is most likely to happen is it will be extratropical. But if it moves slowly with a strengthing high to the north the better chance it will be tropical. If the weakness picks up it most likely to be extratropical.
So have a good day...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
7-7-2006
This one will be a short one...
A ULL is moving southwestard into Mexico at 19 north/95 west. With a tropical wave at 89 west moving westward. A stalled frontal system is over the northern gulf of Mexico near 26-28 north. Which got pushed south because of the midwest high pressure area that has developed.
The tutt is slowly moving westward...Which its main ULL is centered at 24 north/65 west. This is enhancing shear south/east of it. A trough remains over the east coast...With a high pressure area building at the surface at 40/85. With a upper level Anticyclone forming over the rockies/midwest near 110 west/38 north. A weak short wave is near 100 west. Another reinforcing shot is coming out of southeastern Canad a near 50 north. While a upper level Anticyclone remains at 38 north/64 west.
The coastal low we been fellowing is at 33.5 north/77.5 west. Which doe's look to be extratroical. With the ULL to the west centered over GA. So chances of tropical cyclone formation is very very low.
Sal remains very strong north of 12 north...Through the eastern/central Atlantic. With some light sal spreading into the western.
The Gfs shows the weakness off the east coast...With the east coast high inplace. Remember this is at the surface. At 6 hours it develops a surface low at 32 north. Which the maps currently show that its at 33.5 already. Then it fellows the weakness into long island over the next 48 hours. Before a reinforcement shot comes out of southeastern Canada picks it up. 1# There is a upper level low over GA. Which is a classic sign that this will be a extratropical system 2# Its on a front. So I'm not expecting tropical cyclone development.
At the surface there appears to be a weakness off the east coast. As noted with the models.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
But at 200 millibar levels you have a trough inland over the east coast. With a strong Anticyclone over texas. Tutt over the eastern caribbean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html
To about 100 hours theres a weakness but after that a high builds to the north. Off the east coast.
Looking at 200 millibar levels it proves that there is a strong jet stream off the east coast. With a trough at around 85 west. Remember trough at the upper levels, with surface high at surface. While the Anticyclone is over in Western Texas. The tutt is centered near 65 west...With the high pressure at the upper levels we talked about above being at about 65 west/38 north. For one the central and eastern Atlatnic is becoming more faverable shear wise.
The Gfs forecasts the eastern, and central Atlatnic to become more faverable. While lefting the tutt into the western Atlatnic arond 70 west. Believe it or not the tutt is forcing strong shear into the gulf and western Caribbean by 60 hours. While a large Anticyclone moves into the islands at 60 hours. Then by 96 hours moves into the central to western Caribbean. It is not intill 96 hours before a new tutt starts forming/drops down into the eastern Caribbean(60 west). Even at 120 hours this tutt doe's not have much strength south of 20. With a very faverable area over the western Caribbean.
So this very well could be a change in the overall pattern. But still a large tutt remains over the western Atlatnic.
The cmc is forecasting about the same thing. But with another low off the east coast later(Around 96 hours). But based on time I'm going to spend very little.
I'm not going to make any area's of interest today...Because nothing appears to have much chance at developing. But the area forecasted by some models yesterday...For the gulf no longer shows any chance for development.
1# You got a stalled trough.
2# You got a upper level low west of it.
3# You got a tropical wave.
Then you may get a cindy or bill development.
But the wave is at near 90 west...With any convection way east of it. With everything just not quite perfect. But there is a slight chance that it could still happen.
Enjoy I know I went fast on it.
This one will be a short one...
A ULL is moving southwestard into Mexico at 19 north/95 west. With a tropical wave at 89 west moving westward. A stalled frontal system is over the northern gulf of Mexico near 26-28 north. Which got pushed south because of the midwest high pressure area that has developed.
The tutt is slowly moving westward...Which its main ULL is centered at 24 north/65 west. This is enhancing shear south/east of it. A trough remains over the east coast...With a high pressure area building at the surface at 40/85. With a upper level Anticyclone forming over the rockies/midwest near 110 west/38 north. A weak short wave is near 100 west. Another reinforcing shot is coming out of southeastern Canad a near 50 north. While a upper level Anticyclone remains at 38 north/64 west.
The coastal low we been fellowing is at 33.5 north/77.5 west. Which doe's look to be extratroical. With the ULL to the west centered over GA. So chances of tropical cyclone formation is very very low.
Sal remains very strong north of 12 north...Through the eastern/central Atlantic. With some light sal spreading into the western.
The Gfs shows the weakness off the east coast...With the east coast high inplace. Remember this is at the surface. At 6 hours it develops a surface low at 32 north. Which the maps currently show that its at 33.5 already. Then it fellows the weakness into long island over the next 48 hours. Before a reinforcement shot comes out of southeastern Canada picks it up. 1# There is a upper level low over GA. Which is a classic sign that this will be a extratropical system 2# Its on a front. So I'm not expecting tropical cyclone development.
At the surface there appears to be a weakness off the east coast. As noted with the models.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
But at 200 millibar levels you have a trough inland over the east coast. With a strong Anticyclone over texas. Tutt over the eastern caribbean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html
To about 100 hours theres a weakness but after that a high builds to the north. Off the east coast.
Looking at 200 millibar levels it proves that there is a strong jet stream off the east coast. With a trough at around 85 west. Remember trough at the upper levels, with surface high at surface. While the Anticyclone is over in Western Texas. The tutt is centered near 65 west...With the high pressure at the upper levels we talked about above being at about 65 west/38 north. For one the central and eastern Atlatnic is becoming more faverable shear wise.
The Gfs forecasts the eastern, and central Atlatnic to become more faverable. While lefting the tutt into the western Atlatnic arond 70 west. Believe it or not the tutt is forcing strong shear into the gulf and western Caribbean by 60 hours. While a large Anticyclone moves into the islands at 60 hours. Then by 96 hours moves into the central to western Caribbean. It is not intill 96 hours before a new tutt starts forming/drops down into the eastern Caribbean(60 west). Even at 120 hours this tutt doe's not have much strength south of 20. With a very faverable area over the western Caribbean.
So this very well could be a change in the overall pattern. But still a large tutt remains over the western Atlatnic.
The cmc is forecasting about the same thing. But with another low off the east coast later(Around 96 hours). But based on time I'm going to spend very little.
I'm not going to make any area's of interest today...Because nothing appears to have much chance at developing. But the area forecasted by some models yesterday...For the gulf no longer shows any chance for development.
1# You got a stalled trough.
2# You got a upper level low west of it.
3# You got a tropical wave.
Then you may get a cindy or bill development.
But the wave is at near 90 west...With any convection way east of it. With everything just not quite perfect. But there is a slight chance that it could still happen.
Enjoy I know I went fast on it.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
7-8-2006
A weak front lays over the northern gulf of Mexico, which is forming convection. Strong upper level winds from the trough inland centered at 85 west. Should make any chance for devleopment low if none. A upper level ULL has developed at 29 north/82.5 west. With strong upper level shear to the south and east of it. WHich is pushing the convection up the frontal area...A ULL with a surface trough/tropical wave is moving westward at 17 north/97 west...
A tutt ull is moving slowly westward. This is what the models did good over the last few days...This is centered near 21.5 north/67 west. Which is still forcing upper level shear over the caribbean.
A Ull has developed at 37 north/78 west. This is moving slowly northward. Wihch has developed a surface low off the cape, yet another off sc/nc border....A area of high pressure at the surface is at 44 north/78 west...With the upper level Anticyclone over the rockie mountains at 105 west/40 north. Another trough is developing at 90/95 west. Which is droping down the back side of the trough.
Yet another trough is over the northern Atlantic near 40 north. With a strong Anticyclone at 30 north across the Atlatnic.
The tutt ULL at 21.5/67 has developed some convection. Yes these systems have developed into tropical cyclone before. In believe it or not this might be the only thing worth watching.
The central Atlatnic itcz has becme more active...With covnection forming along it...
All area's from 55 west to the cape verdes are bone dry. But south of 15 north from 55 to 30 west the itcz is lighten up. Also the caribbean(Eastern part) Is also bone dry. The Tutt ull has developed some convection near its core. The western Caribbean is alot more moisted. With the gulf having no problem with moisture.
The caribbean has mostly 30 to 40 knot shear. With the BOC with 5 knot shear. The northern Gulf with 20 knot shear. The central Atlatnic has become more faverable...With large area's of 5 to 10 knot decreases. The caribbean the shear is also decreasing at 10 knots...The gulf of Mexico the shear is icnreasing. 1# That tells that the tutt is weaking. 2# Tells that the models are right.
Looking at the surface flow we clearly shows the Anticyclone over texas...In between it is a surface low off NC. With the Azores/bermuda high near 55 west. We look at the 200 millibar which shows the upper low. Which is centered north of Hati. With the trough just inland on the east coast...
The SAL is remaining very strong over the central to eastern Atlatnic. With some spreading into the western Atlatnic.
At the surface the gfs shows the lower level pattern...But it weakens the surface high over the eastern United states. With another trough/surface trough moving into the east coast. By 24 to 36 hours. A area of low pressure closes off east of the leewards at 54 to 60 hours...It moves through those islands at 100 hours. The ridge to the north stays strong through out the period. In with the high over the western Atlatnic totally inplace this is worth watching.
At the 200 millibar level you got strong shear through the caribbean. With a trough over the eastern sea board. Through the next 12 to 24 hours the ULL/tutt moves northwestward. By 12 hours it is located at 35 north/70 west. The Central Atlatnic/eastern Caribbean becomes much more faverable. While the tutt is over the gulf of Mexico. As you can see a Anticyclone forms at 45 west by 36 hours...This anticyclone by 60 hours is where our system develops. With still strong tutt over the gulf of Mexico. Really most of the caribbean is pretty faverable. With only a very small tutt at 55 west. By 100 to 126 hours the tutt trys to form north of the leewards/western Atlatnic. But by 144 hours which is along ways the tutt reforms. This is a sign that we will not have a active season. But if a faverable enviroment can stay inplace maybe we can get some activty.
The cmc holds a east-west high over the Atlatnic...But doe's not show any development.
1# 21.5/67 this area is a area of convection...Also formed because of the ULL to its west. I say that with a history of storms forming this way...That this needs to be watched as the ULL moves northwestward...This could very well slip under to the west.
A system over the Eastern Pacific, appears to have developed into a depression. Lets see how long before the nhc upgrades it...
Enjoy your day!!!
A weak front lays over the northern gulf of Mexico, which is forming convection. Strong upper level winds from the trough inland centered at 85 west. Should make any chance for devleopment low if none. A upper level ULL has developed at 29 north/82.5 west. With strong upper level shear to the south and east of it. WHich is pushing the convection up the frontal area...A ULL with a surface trough/tropical wave is moving westward at 17 north/97 west...
A tutt ull is moving slowly westward. This is what the models did good over the last few days...This is centered near 21.5 north/67 west. Which is still forcing upper level shear over the caribbean.
A Ull has developed at 37 north/78 west. This is moving slowly northward. Wihch has developed a surface low off the cape, yet another off sc/nc border....A area of high pressure at the surface is at 44 north/78 west...With the upper level Anticyclone over the rockie mountains at 105 west/40 north. Another trough is developing at 90/95 west. Which is droping down the back side of the trough.
Yet another trough is over the northern Atlantic near 40 north. With a strong Anticyclone at 30 north across the Atlatnic.
The tutt ULL at 21.5/67 has developed some convection. Yes these systems have developed into tropical cyclone before. In believe it or not this might be the only thing worth watching.
The central Atlatnic itcz has becme more active...With covnection forming along it...
All area's from 55 west to the cape verdes are bone dry. But south of 15 north from 55 to 30 west the itcz is lighten up. Also the caribbean(Eastern part) Is also bone dry. The Tutt ull has developed some convection near its core. The western Caribbean is alot more moisted. With the gulf having no problem with moisture.
The caribbean has mostly 30 to 40 knot shear. With the BOC with 5 knot shear. The northern Gulf with 20 knot shear. The central Atlatnic has become more faverable...With large area's of 5 to 10 knot decreases. The caribbean the shear is also decreasing at 10 knots...The gulf of Mexico the shear is icnreasing. 1# That tells that the tutt is weaking. 2# Tells that the models are right.
Looking at the surface flow we clearly shows the Anticyclone over texas...In between it is a surface low off NC. With the Azores/bermuda high near 55 west. We look at the 200 millibar which shows the upper low. Which is centered north of Hati. With the trough just inland on the east coast...
The SAL is remaining very strong over the central to eastern Atlatnic. With some spreading into the western Atlatnic.
At the surface the gfs shows the lower level pattern...But it weakens the surface high over the eastern United states. With another trough/surface trough moving into the east coast. By 24 to 36 hours. A area of low pressure closes off east of the leewards at 54 to 60 hours...It moves through those islands at 100 hours. The ridge to the north stays strong through out the period. In with the high over the western Atlatnic totally inplace this is worth watching.
At the 200 millibar level you got strong shear through the caribbean. With a trough over the eastern sea board. Through the next 12 to 24 hours the ULL/tutt moves northwestward. By 12 hours it is located at 35 north/70 west. The Central Atlatnic/eastern Caribbean becomes much more faverable. While the tutt is over the gulf of Mexico. As you can see a Anticyclone forms at 45 west by 36 hours...This anticyclone by 60 hours is where our system develops. With still strong tutt over the gulf of Mexico. Really most of the caribbean is pretty faverable. With only a very small tutt at 55 west. By 100 to 126 hours the tutt trys to form north of the leewards/western Atlatnic. But by 144 hours which is along ways the tutt reforms. This is a sign that we will not have a active season. But if a faverable enviroment can stay inplace maybe we can get some activty.
The cmc holds a east-west high over the Atlatnic...But doe's not show any development.
1# 21.5/67 this area is a area of convection...Also formed because of the ULL to its west. I say that with a history of storms forming this way...That this needs to be watched as the ULL moves northwestward...This could very well slip under to the west.
A system over the Eastern Pacific, appears to have developed into a depression. Lets see how long before the nhc upgrades it...
Enjoy your day!!!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Special update
7pm pst
7-8-2006
1# The tropical distrabance at 9 north/39 west. Is moving west-northwest over the central Atlatnic. This area has a large area of moist air...With a well defined Anticyclone over it.
A MLC has developed on the southeast side of the big blow up of convection. In the system should slowly tighten up. As the heat from the convection releases into the Atmosphere the more convection that will develop. Then the more the system will tighten up. With the Anticyclone the system looks like Iris of 2005...Which got dry air into its cirulation just a few hours after developing. But if it can keep that out of the core. Then this could develop quit fast.
The models(Gfs forecasts)00z,12z,18z all show a northwest movement. Then a surface high to the north builds then turns it into the northern part of the leewards. By about 72 to 84 hours. If it can keep its moist area of air then chances of development are fair.
Wind forecast
0 20 knots
6 20 knots
12 25 knots
24 30 knots
36 30 knots?
48 40 knots
60 45 knots
72 50 knots
This could be faster or slower or none at all. All based on how much dry air gets into the core.
7pm pst
7-8-2006
1# The tropical distrabance at 9 north/39 west. Is moving west-northwest over the central Atlatnic. This area has a large area of moist air...With a well defined Anticyclone over it.
A MLC has developed on the southeast side of the big blow up of convection. In the system should slowly tighten up. As the heat from the convection releases into the Atmosphere the more convection that will develop. Then the more the system will tighten up. With the Anticyclone the system looks like Iris of 2005...Which got dry air into its cirulation just a few hours after developing. But if it can keep that out of the core. Then this could develop quit fast.
The models(Gfs forecasts)00z,12z,18z all show a northwest movement. Then a surface high to the north builds then turns it into the northern part of the leewards. By about 72 to 84 hours. If it can keep its moist area of air then chances of development are fair.
Wind forecast
0 20 knots
6 20 knots
12 25 knots
24 30 knots
36 30 knots?
48 40 knots
60 45 knots
72 50 knots
This could be faster or slower or none at all. All based on how much dry air gets into the core.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
7-9-2006
A surface front remains over the northern gulf around 28 north. This area has some convection firing near it...The upper level trough around 200 millibars appears to be over the coastal northeast...Which is strenching down southwestward into Mexico. Which has formed a ULL at 14 north/105 west. Yet another weak one at 19 north/98 west...Which is helping to enhance convection over the BOC. A upper level Anticyclone is over central America near 90 west.
A surface front is just off the east coast. With the upper level low at 40 north/82 west. Another reinforing shot is coming down near 40/85...On the backside of the ULL. Yet another is at 100 west...The Anticyclone over the rockies remains in place...A devleoping trough between the high's at 40 to 50 west...Which is important in forecasting where that distrabance go's...In which we will talk about a little later.
The upper level low at 28 north/70 west...Is moving northwestward. Which is helping ot fire off convection to its southeast...Yet another is around 21/70.
The eastern Caribbean is very dry...While the western is a little more moiste. Mostly because of the Anticyclone...The gulf is moist...The western Atlatnic is moist but below 30...Above that it is dry...From 60 to the cape verdes north of 15 it is bone dry...While the tropical distrabance at 40 to 45 west has a pocket of moisture.
At the low levels you got a high pressure north of the distrabance. While you can see at 40 north/45 the first signs of the trough...Which should steer this northwestward for a few days...Strong southly flow off the east coast. At 200 millibars you can see this developing even better.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html
Wind shear over the distrabance is 10 knots...But wind shear over the caribbean at this time is 30 to 40 knots. The shear is increasing over the caribbean at this time. So things are not really becoming any better. 2006 scores again!!!
The SAL rules north of 10 north all the way to 65. Most likely whats killing our distrabance.
The gfs closes it off at 42 hours. Then moves it into the islands at 78 hours...At 200 millibars a upper level Anticyclone is over it...At 42 hours a Anticyclone remains over it. At 60 a Anticyclone remains over it...Heck shear is to the north...Which could even enhance a northern outflow channel.
Cmc surface doe's not develop anything...But upper levels shows that there is a upper level high. This upper level high gets forced southward into south America by 72 to 90 hours. As very strong shear builds over the islands.
So if that happens you can forget development.
1# This area is a disorganized area of convection...With a MLC at 7.5/43 weest. In which I see no signs of any real development...The SAL is likely killing this system+eastly shear. Yet another weak MLC might be at 40.5 west.
The 12z gfs shows it closing off a bar around 42 hours. The 00z,06z.12z,18z yesterday have been showing some development with this. 00z backed off then the 06z shown again some development.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
As you can see a weakness develops to the north of this system. Which is around 32 north/50-55 west. Which draws it northwestward...See where theres a gap between the two highs.
Then see how this gap weakens. While the high builds to the north...Then the system slides westward. At 66 hours it is a a strong tropical wave.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 90_m.shtml
The gfdl develops it into a tropical storm...At 24 to 36 hours. Then takes it westward/west-northwestward. It should be renamed the worthless hurricane model for systems of this strength.
So overall it has some chance at devleopment. In its worth watching...But I would not jump off a building or sell the farm on it...
Have a good day!!!
A surface front remains over the northern gulf around 28 north. This area has some convection firing near it...The upper level trough around 200 millibars appears to be over the coastal northeast...Which is strenching down southwestward into Mexico. Which has formed a ULL at 14 north/105 west. Yet another weak one at 19 north/98 west...Which is helping to enhance convection over the BOC. A upper level Anticyclone is over central America near 90 west.
A surface front is just off the east coast. With the upper level low at 40 north/82 west. Another reinforing shot is coming down near 40/85...On the backside of the ULL. Yet another is at 100 west...The Anticyclone over the rockies remains in place...A devleoping trough between the high's at 40 to 50 west...Which is important in forecasting where that distrabance go's...In which we will talk about a little later.
The upper level low at 28 north/70 west...Is moving northwestward. Which is helping ot fire off convection to its southeast...Yet another is around 21/70.
The eastern Caribbean is very dry...While the western is a little more moiste. Mostly because of the Anticyclone...The gulf is moist...The western Atlatnic is moist but below 30...Above that it is dry...From 60 to the cape verdes north of 15 it is bone dry...While the tropical distrabance at 40 to 45 west has a pocket of moisture.
At the low levels you got a high pressure north of the distrabance. While you can see at 40 north/45 the first signs of the trough...Which should steer this northwestward for a few days...Strong southly flow off the east coast. At 200 millibars you can see this developing even better.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html
Wind shear over the distrabance is 10 knots...But wind shear over the caribbean at this time is 30 to 40 knots. The shear is increasing over the caribbean at this time. So things are not really becoming any better. 2006 scores again!!!
The SAL rules north of 10 north all the way to 65. Most likely whats killing our distrabance.
The gfs closes it off at 42 hours. Then moves it into the islands at 78 hours...At 200 millibars a upper level Anticyclone is over it...At 42 hours a Anticyclone remains over it. At 60 a Anticyclone remains over it...Heck shear is to the north...Which could even enhance a northern outflow channel.
Cmc surface doe's not develop anything...But upper levels shows that there is a upper level high. This upper level high gets forced southward into south America by 72 to 90 hours. As very strong shear builds over the islands.
So if that happens you can forget development.
1# This area is a disorganized area of convection...With a MLC at 7.5/43 weest. In which I see no signs of any real development...The SAL is likely killing this system+eastly shear. Yet another weak MLC might be at 40.5 west.
The 12z gfs shows it closing off a bar around 42 hours. The 00z,06z.12z,18z yesterday have been showing some development with this. 00z backed off then the 06z shown again some development.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
As you can see a weakness develops to the north of this system. Which is around 32 north/50-55 west. Which draws it northwestward...See where theres a gap between the two highs.
Then see how this gap weakens. While the high builds to the north...Then the system slides westward. At 66 hours it is a a strong tropical wave.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 90_m.shtml
The gfdl develops it into a tropical storm...At 24 to 36 hours. Then takes it westward/west-northwestward. It should be renamed the worthless hurricane model for systems of this strength.
So overall it has some chance at devleopment. In its worth watching...But I would not jump off a building or sell the farm on it...
Have a good day!!!
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HurricaneHunter914
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Hey I call that being rude. Yeah the GFDL doesn't do good with those types of systems, but call the GFDL worthless with those systems is just inconsiderate.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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SouthFloridawx
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
The gfdl always hypes systems...Over the last few years it has done so. When you get a well defined system then its alot better.
Special update afternoon distrabance forecast...
6pm 7-9-2006
The tropical distrabance(96l) has developed more convection near 8 to 10 north/40 to 42 west. With a surface low at 10 north/41 west...This system is not moving very fast, and also has faverable upper level Anticyclone over it. The dry air to the north appears that it is not making it into the center of the system...
Some slow development over the next 24 to 36 hours is possible....The models show(Gfs)a Anticyclone forming over the eastern Caribbean. While a strengthen area of high pressure forms north of the system...Which should turn it back westward around 48 to 60 hours.
Strength wise maybe I was a little mean to the gfdl...But it doe's have a history of hyping development. With the convection forming=rising air which means the system has developed a surface low. Not to far off what the gfs was saying but happening now instead of 42 to 48 hours from now. The ship makes it to 37 knots then weakens it as it moves into the caribbean.
No LLC has developed but if one develops then this could very well develop. Remember that developing systems like this are very hard to forecast. In they can fall apart very fast. In because of this I'm not releasing a wind forecast...
Special update afternoon distrabance forecast...
6pm 7-9-2006
The tropical distrabance(96l) has developed more convection near 8 to 10 north/40 to 42 west. With a surface low at 10 north/41 west...This system is not moving very fast, and also has faverable upper level Anticyclone over it. The dry air to the north appears that it is not making it into the center of the system...
Some slow development over the next 24 to 36 hours is possible....The models show(Gfs)a Anticyclone forming over the eastern Caribbean. While a strengthen area of high pressure forms north of the system...Which should turn it back westward around 48 to 60 hours.
Strength wise maybe I was a little mean to the gfdl...But it doe's have a history of hyping development. With the convection forming=rising air which means the system has developed a surface low. Not to far off what the gfs was saying but happening now instead of 42 to 48 hours from now. The ship makes it to 37 knots then weakens it as it moves into the caribbean.
No LLC has developed but if one develops then this could very well develop. Remember that developing systems like this are very hard to forecast. In they can fall apart very fast. In because of this I'm not releasing a wind forecast...
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george_r_1961
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