Area north of PR looks more organized

boca · #21 Postby **boca** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 8:47 pm

I know everyone is focused on the system at 41W but I've noticed this system north of the islands deserves some attention since convection has increased since yesterday and is closer to the US.

#22 Postby **hiflyer** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:13 pm

nice catch....just stared at the vapor for 10 mins....(old sofla tradition..when in doubt stare at the vapor).

Sanibel · #23 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:18 pm

It has that "sticking in one place" look that forming systems have sometimes. Hard to say.

boca · #24 Postby **boca** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:21 pm

The gulf is a mess so its hard to say which direction this will take.

boca · #25 Postby **boca** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:22 pm

The gulf is a mess so its hard to say which direction this will take.

HurricaneHunter914 · #26 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:22 pm

Looks like the shear around this wave should help it develop once it gets a LLC.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #27 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:43 pm

This kind of reminds me of a hurricane it started with a H a few years back. Which moved northward. Started out as a blob north of the islands.

#28 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:47 pm

I would like to point out that this convection associated with this ULL/tropical wave has been fairly consistant. The ULL is expected to weaken.

Look at CIMSS it appears as though it will be moving into and area with decreasing shear and currently over it is upper level divergence as well as vorticity in 850mb region. I think this is something that we'll have to watch in the next couple of days as this area of convection moves into the bahamas.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Very nice convection/flaring up occuring there right now. With upper level lows the key at getting the pressure lowered at the surface is persistant convection and that does seem to be occuring.

MiamiensisWx · #29 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:52 pm

Although I still believe the chances of development will be fairly low, this system may likely become nearly stationary, starting over the next 24 hours, as it begins to interact with the slow-moving old trough still moving off Florida and off the eastern U.S. coastline. As it does so, it may reform a new possible low center near the Bahamas, remaining under a weak steering environment as the trough slowly pulls out.

#30 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:10 pm

NAM is showing some possible warm core development on the 11th int he northern bahamas.

#31 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:15 pm

Sanibel wrote:It has that "sticking in one place" look that forming systems have sometimes. Hard to say.

Yes, the consistency has definitely got my attention. Looks better tonight -- as does 96L.

#32 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:17 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
Sanibel wrote:It has that "sticking in one place" look that forming systems have sometimes. Hard to say.

Yes, the consistency has definitely got my attention. Looks better tonight -- as does 96L.

woops posted this in the wrong thread. LOL

boca · #33 Postby **boca** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:18 pm

Its gotta be the positive MJO otherwise poof.

#34 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:30 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:
Sanibel wrote:It has that "sticking in one place" look that forming systems have sometimes. Hard to say.

Yes, the consistency has definitely got my attention. Looks better tonight -- as does 96L.

woops posted this in the wrong thread. LOL

I was referring to the area around Puerto Rico. I believe this is the correct thread.

#35 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:32 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:
Sanibel wrote:It has that "sticking in one place" look that forming systems have sometimes. Hard to say.

Yes, the consistency has definitely got my attention. Looks better tonight -- as does 96L.

woops posted this in the wrong thread. LOL

I was referring to the area around Puerto Rico. I believe this is the correct thread.

I posted an image that was an MJO graphic and wasn't specifically responding to what you said. Sorry bout that. :wink:

#36 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:33 pm

boca · #37 Postby **boca** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:37 pm

Orange area on that map pushing SEward thru North Carolina is that High pressure building?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #38 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:40 pm

Trough over the east coast...With a Anticyclone over Texas, in then another Trough with a short wave near 100 west/40 north. While another Anticyclone is over the rockies.

#39 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:41 pm

boca wrote:Orange area on that map pushing SEward thru North Carolina is that High pressure building?

Actually the Bermuda High is expected to build westward into the southeast US.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

chadtm80 · #40 Postby **chadtm80** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:52 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=134

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=136

Area north of PR looks more organized

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