Dennis Anniversary thread, July 11th, R.I.P Dennis
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ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AT THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS
MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND
DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM
SURGE OF 12 TO 14 FEET...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N... 85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AT THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS
MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND
DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM
SURGE OF 12 TO 14 FEET...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N... 85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN

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- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 6132
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
cheezywxman wrote:right before it weakened below cat 4 status close to landfall, they sed it was possible that Dennis couldve been worse than Ivan
I dont think it would've been, it's strongest winds were in a very small area and those winds were in a less populated and already damaged area. it may have been in areas like Navarre beach though.
0 likes
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL
RATE THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941
MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL
THAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNIS
TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH
DENNIS HAS A VERY LARGE OUTER WIND FIELD... THE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DENNIS IN ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP DENNIS
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR AT
LEAST 2 DAYS...WITH THIS MOTION BRINGING THE STORM INLAND ON
SUNDAY. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA-PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AREA...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CLUSTER JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER
LANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD SLOW AND GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHED
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
REACH 120 KT IN 12 HR. AFTER THAT...CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLY INCREASING SHEAR
WILL LIKELY END STRENGTHENING. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA.
34 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN REVISED OUTWARD
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT KEY WEST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 26.6N 85.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 28.2N 86.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.6N 87.9W 120 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 11/1200Z 32.9N 89.0W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/0000Z 34.8N 89.8W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/0000Z 37.5N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0000Z 38.0N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0000Z 38.5N 82.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
$$
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL
RATE THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941
MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL
THAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNIS
TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH
DENNIS HAS A VERY LARGE OUTER WIND FIELD... THE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DENNIS IN ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP DENNIS
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR AT
LEAST 2 DAYS...WITH THIS MOTION BRINGING THE STORM INLAND ON
SUNDAY. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA-PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AREA...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CLUSTER JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER
LANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD SLOW AND GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHED
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
REACH 120 KT IN 12 HR. AFTER THAT...CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLY INCREASING SHEAR
WILL LIKELY END STRENGTHENING. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA.
34 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN REVISED OUTWARD
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT KEY WEST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 26.6N 85.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 28.2N 86.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.6N 87.9W 120 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 11/1200Z 32.9N 89.0W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/0000Z 34.8N 89.8W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/0000Z 37.5N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0000Z 38.0N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0000Z 38.5N 82.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
$$
NNNN
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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL
RATE THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941
MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL
THAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNIS
TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH
DENNIS HAS A VERY LARGE OUTER WIND FIELD... THE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DENNIS IN ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP DENNIS
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR AT
LEAST 2 DAYS...WITH THIS MOTION BRINGING THE STORM INLAND ON
SUNDAY. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA-PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AREA...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CLUSTER JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER
LANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD SLOW AND GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHED
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
REACH 120 KT IN 12 HR. AFTER THAT...CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLY INCREASING SHEAR
WILL LIKELY END STRENGTHENING. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA.
34 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN REVISED OUTWARD
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT KEY WEST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 26.6N 85.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 28.2N 86.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.6N 87.9W 120 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 11/1200Z 32.9N 89.0W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/0000Z 34.8N 89.8W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/0000Z 37.5N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0000Z 38.0N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0000Z 38.5N 82.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
$$
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL
RATE THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941
MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL
THAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNIS
TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH
DENNIS HAS A VERY LARGE OUTER WIND FIELD... THE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DENNIS IN ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP DENNIS
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR AT
LEAST 2 DAYS...WITH THIS MOTION BRINGING THE STORM INLAND ON
SUNDAY. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA-PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AREA...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CLUSTER JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER
LANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD SLOW AND GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHED
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
REACH 120 KT IN 12 HR. AFTER THAT...CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLY INCREASING SHEAR
WILL LIKELY END STRENGTHENING. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA.
34 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN REVISED OUTWARD
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT KEY WEST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 26.6N 85.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 28.2N 86.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.6N 87.9W 120 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 11/1200Z 32.9N 89.0W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/0000Z 34.8N 89.8W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/0000Z 37.5N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0000Z 38.0N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0000Z 38.5N 82.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
$$
NNNN
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- cajungal
- Category 5
- Posts: 2330
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
- Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)
I had my condo booked in Destin, Fl for August 4th-11th and did not know whether to cancel my vacation or not. It looked like Dennis was going to hit Destin head on at that point. It barely missed Destin and landfall was just to the west at Navarre. I decided to go on with my vacation anyway as planned and take my chances. Our condo was located in the heart of Destin "the downtown area" right across from the big waterpark. I am glad we went on with our plans. Where we were staying at, hardly any damage at all. The beach was still gorgeous and even the Tiki bar on the beach survived.
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July 10th, the big day
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS BEARING DOWN ON THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE
RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 6 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK
OF THE HURRICANE.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
BECAUSE THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED A VERY SHORT DISTANCE FROM THE
CENTER...THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE VALUES HAVE BEEN REVISED.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS
LIKELY ELSWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO NEAR
15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL ON THE GULF
COAST.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE 6 AM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF LANDFALL...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND FROM EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO LONGBOAT
KEY FLORIDA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA
BY MID-AFTERNOON.
DENNIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOW NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE REMAINING HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST NEAR THE CATEGORY THREE/FOUR
THRESHOLD ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY
OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE NOON CDT POSITION...29.6 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE DENNIS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF
LANDFALL...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND FROM EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO LONGBOAT
KEY FLORIDA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM CDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
DENNIS IS MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...AND A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EYEWALL OF DENNIS IS JUST NOW REACHING THE COAST...AND THE CENTER
OF DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF PENSACOLA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DENNIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOW NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY
OCCUR AS FAR AS 100 TO 150 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE 2 PM CDT POSITION...30.2 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA AS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO DESTIN
FLORIDA.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED...AND NOW EXTEND
FROM THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER AND FROM
EAST OF DESTIN TO LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES NORTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
DENNIS IS MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 21 MPH. A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS
IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DENNIS
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.
A FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM TOWER...ON THE COAST NEAR
NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA...REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO 121 MPH...NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS LIKELY
STILL OCCURRING NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF
DENNIS MADE LANDFALL. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS LIKELY STILL
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DENNIS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...30.8 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS BEARING DOWN ON THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE
RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 6 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK
OF THE HURRICANE.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
BECAUSE THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED A VERY SHORT DISTANCE FROM THE
CENTER...THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE VALUES HAVE BEEN REVISED.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS
LIKELY ELSWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO NEAR
15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL ON THE GULF
COAST.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE 6 AM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF LANDFALL...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND FROM EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO LONGBOAT
KEY FLORIDA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA
BY MID-AFTERNOON.
DENNIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOW NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE REMAINING HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST NEAR THE CATEGORY THREE/FOUR
THRESHOLD ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY
OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE NOON CDT POSITION...29.6 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE DENNIS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF
LANDFALL...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND FROM EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO LONGBOAT
KEY FLORIDA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM CDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
DENNIS IS MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...AND A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EYEWALL OF DENNIS IS JUST NOW REACHING THE COAST...AND THE CENTER
OF DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF PENSACOLA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DENNIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOW NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY
OCCUR AS FAR AS 100 TO 150 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE 2 PM CDT POSITION...30.2 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA AS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO DESTIN
FLORIDA.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED...AND NOW EXTEND
FROM THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER AND FROM
EAST OF DESTIN TO LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES NORTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
DENNIS IS MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 21 MPH. A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS
IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DENNIS
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.
A FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM TOWER...ON THE COAST NEAR
NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA...REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO 121 MPH...NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS LIKELY
STILL OCCURRING NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF
DENNIS MADE LANDFALL. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS LIKELY STILL
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DENNIS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...30.8 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
NNNN








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- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
Dennis brought alot of wind and rain to Central Florida too, I remember the chairs in my backyard starting to "fly" off into the lawn while rain pounded my roof for several hours.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
It wasn't too bad though. I remember there being a few 40-45mph gusts in squalls, but compared to the previous year's Charley, Frances, and Jeanne it was a breeze (no pun intendedHurricaneHunter914 wrote:Dennis brought alot of wind and rain to Central Florida too, I remember the chairs in my backyard starting to "fly" off into the lawn while rain pounded my roof for several hours.

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- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
Charley, now that hurricane made us put all our backyard stuff in the house so nothing went smashing through our windows. 

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.